York Jiao1, Bing Xue2, Chenyang Lu2, Michael S Avidan3, Thomas Kannampallil4. 1. Department of Anesthesiology, Washington University School of Medicine in St Louis, St Louis, MO, USA. Electronic address: york.jiao@wustl.edu. 2. Department of Computer Science and Engineering, Washington University in St Louis, St Louis, MO, USA. 3. Department of Anesthesiology, Washington University School of Medicine in St Louis, St Louis, MO, USA. 4. Department of Anesthesiology, Washington University School of Medicine in St Louis, St Louis, MO, USA; Institute for Informatics, Washington University School of Medicine in St Louis, St Louis, MO, USA.
Abstract
BACKGROUND: Real-time prediction of surgical duration can inform perioperative decisions and reduce surgical costs. We developed a machine learning approach that continuously incorporates preoperative and intraoperative information for forecasting surgical duration. METHODS: Preoperative (e.g. procedure name) and intraoperative (e.g. medications and vital signs) variables were retrieved from anaesthetic records of surgeries performed between March 1, 2019 and October 31, 2019. A modular artificial neural network was developed and compared with a Bayesian approach and the scheduled surgical duration. Continuous ranked probability score (CRPS) was used as a measure of time error to assess model accuracy. For evaluating clinical performance, accuracy for each approach was assessed in identifying cases that ran beyond 15:00 (commonly scheduled end of shift), thus identifying opportunities to avoid overtime labour costs. RESULTS: The analysis included 70 826 cases performed at eight hospitals. The modular artificial neural network had the lowest time error (CRPS: mean=13.8; standard deviation=35.4 min), which was significantly better (mean difference=6.4 min [95% confidence interval: 6.3-6.5]; P<0.001) than the Bayesian approach. The modular artificial neural network also had the highest accuracy in identifying operating theatres that would overrun 15:00 (accuracy at 1 h prior=89%) compared with the Bayesian approach (80%) and a naïve approach using the scheduled duration (78%). CONCLUSIONS: A real-time neural network model using preoperative and intraoperative data had significantly better performance than a Bayesian approach or scheduled duration, offering opportunities to avoid overtime labour costs and reduce the cost of surgery by providing superior real-time information for perioperative decision support.
BACKGROUND: Real-time prediction of surgical duration can inform perioperative decisions and reduce surgical costs. We developed a machine learning approach that continuously incorporates preoperative and intraoperative information for forecasting surgical duration. METHODS: Preoperative (e.g. procedure name) and intraoperative (e.g. medications and vital signs) variables were retrieved from anaesthetic records of surgeries performed between March 1, 2019 and October 31, 2019. A modular artificial neural network was developed and compared with a Bayesian approach and the scheduled surgical duration. Continuous ranked probability score (CRPS) was used as a measure of time error to assess model accuracy. For evaluating clinical performance, accuracy for each approach was assessed in identifying cases that ran beyond 15:00 (commonly scheduled end of shift), thus identifying opportunities to avoid overtime labour costs. RESULTS: The analysis included 70 826 cases performed at eight hospitals. The modular artificial neural network had the lowest time error (CRPS: mean=13.8; standard deviation=35.4 min), which was significantly better (mean difference=6.4 min [95% confidence interval: 6.3-6.5]; P<0.001) than the Bayesian approach. The modular artificial neural network also had the highest accuracy in identifying operating theatres that would overrun 15:00 (accuracy at 1 h prior=89%) compared with the Bayesian approach (80%) and a naïve approach using the scheduled duration (78%). CONCLUSIONS: A real-time neural network model using preoperative and intraoperative data had significantly better performance than a Bayesian approach or scheduled duration, offering opportunities to avoid overtime labour costs and reduce the cost of surgery by providing superior real-time information for perioperative decision support.