| Literature DB >> 35054073 |
Ernest Jan Bobeff1, Malgorzata Bukowiecka-Matusiak2, Konrad Stawiski3, Karol Wiśniewski1, Izabela Burzynska-Pedziwiatr2, Magdalena Kordzińska4, Konrad Kowalski5, Przemyslaw Sendys5, Michał Piotrowski1, Dorota Szczesna2, Ludomir Stefańczyk4, Lucyna Alicja Wozniak2, Dariusz Jan Jaskólski1.
Abstract
Aneurysmal subarachnoid haemorrhages (aSAH) account for 5% of strokes and continues to place a great burden on patients and their families. Cerebral vasospasm (CVS) is one of the main causes of death after aSAH, and is usually diagnosed between day 3 and 14 after bleeding. Its pathogenesis remains poorly understood. To verify whether plasma concentration of amino acids have prognostic value in predicting CVS, we analysed data from 35 patients after aSAH (median age 55 years, IQR 39-62; 20 females, 57.1%), and 37 healthy volunteers (median age 50 years, IQR 38-56; 19 females, 51.4%). Fasting peripheral blood samples were collected on postoperative day one and seven. High performance liquid chromatography-mass spectrometry (HPLC-MS) analysis was performed. The results showed that plasma from patients after aSAH featured a distinctive amino acids concentration which was presented in both principal component analysis and direct comparison. No significant differences were noted between postoperative day one and seven. A total of 18 patients from the study group (51.4%) developed CVS. Hydroxyproline (AUC = 0.7042, 95%CI 0.5259-0.8826, p = 0.0248) and phenylalanine (AUC = 0.6944, 95%CI 0.5119-0.877, p = 0.0368) presented significant CVS prediction potential. Combining the Hunt-Hess Scale and plasma levels of hydroxyproline and phenylalanine provided the model with the best predictive performance and the lowest leave-one-out cross-validation of performance error. Our results suggest that plasma amino acids may improve sensitivity and specificity of Hunt-Hess scale in predicting CVS.Entities:
Keywords: Hunt-Hess scale; aneurysmal subarachnoid haemorrhage; cerebral vasospasm; high performance liquid chromatography-mass spectrometry; plasma amino acids; predictors
Year: 2022 PMID: 35054073 PMCID: PMC8779950 DOI: 10.3390/jcm11020380
Source DB: PubMed Journal: J Clin Med ISSN: 2077-0383 Impact factor: 4.241
Time and percentages of used eluents during HPLC-MS analysis.
| Time of Elution | Eluent A | Eluent B |
|---|---|---|
| (min) | (%) | (%) |
| 0 | 80 | 20 |
| 7 | 50 | 50 |
| 7.1 | 5 | 95 |
| 9 | 5 | 95 |
| 9.1 | 80 | 20 |
| 11 | 80 | 20 |
Study group characteristics.
| Characteristic | |
|---|---|
| Male | 15 (42.9%) |
| Age | 55 (39–62) |
| Length of stay at the dept. of neurosurgery | 15 (10–21) |
| Aneurysm location | |
| Anterior communicating artery | 19 (54.3%) |
| Middle cerebral artery | 9 (25.7%) |
| Internal carotid artery | 2 (5.7%) |
| Posterior communicating artery | 2 (5.7%) |
| Basilar artery | 1 (2.9%) |
| Posterior inferior cerebellar artery | 1 (2.9%) |
| Pericallosal artery | 1 (2.9%) |
| Clinical state on admission | |
| Hunt-Hess score | 3 (2–3) |
| 1 | 5 (14.3%) |
| 2 | 11 (31.4%) |
| 3 | 19 (54.3%) |
| Fisher score | 4 (2–4) |
| WFNS score | 2 (1–4) |
| GCS score | 14 (10–15) |
| Nuchal rigidity | 29 (82.9%) |
| Neurological deficit | 3 (8.6%) |
| Surgical clipping | 34 (97.1%) |
| Endovascular coiling | 1 (2.9%)—BAA |
| Cerebral vasospasm CVS | 18 (51.4%) |
| Disorientation | 17 (94.4%) |
| New or increasing headache | 11 (61.1%) |
| Focal neurological signs | 9 (50%) |
| Lethargy | 5 (27.8%) |
| Occurrence of CVS (postoperative day) | 5 (4–6) |
| Treatment outcome | |
| GOS at discharge | 4 (3–4) |
| GOS at discharge ≥4 (good outcome) | 18 (51.4%) |
| GOS at one year | 4 (2–4) |
| GOS at one year ≥4 (good outcome) | 23 (65.7%) |
| mRS | 2 (2–5) |
BAA, basilar artery aneurysm; CVS, vertebral vasospasm; GOS, Glasgow outcome scale; mRS, modified Rankin scale; WFNS, World Federation of Neurosurgical Societies.
Intergroup differences analysis of data of 35 patients after aneurysmal subarachnoid hemorrhage. Blood samples were collected on post-operative day 1 and 7. All concentrations are given in nmol/mL, and were averaged based on two measurements. * For all tests, p < 0.05 was deemed to be significant.
| Poor Outcome | Good Outcome | CVS | No CVS | Control Group | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Age | 60.5 (36.25–62.75) | 52 (39–61) | 0.424 | 56 (46–63.5) | 55 (33.5–61) | 0.215 | 50 (38–56) |
| Male | 7 (58.3%) | 8 (34.8%) | 0.282 | 10 (55.6%) | 5 (29.4%) | 0.176 | 18 (48.6%) |
| LOS | 18.5 (14.5–42.5) | 12 (9–19) | 0.033 * | 20.5 (15–30.25) | 10 (8.5–14) | <0.001 * | |
| Hunt-Hess score | 3 (2.25–3) | 2 (2–3) | 0.140 | 3 (2.75–3) | 2 (1–3) | 0.002 * | |
| Fisher score | 4 (4–4) | 3 (2–4) | 0.009 * | 4 (3–4) | 3 (1.5–4) | 0.004 * | |
| WFNS score | 4 (2–4) | 1 (1–4) | 0.051 | 4 (2–4) | 1 (1–2) | 0.003 * | |
| GCS score | 11 (9–13.8) | 15 (12–15) | 0.026 * | 11.5 (9–14) | 15 (14–15) | 0.004 * | |
| Nuchal rigidity | 11 (91.7%) | 18 (78.3%) | 0.640 | 17 (94.4%) | 12 (70.6%) | 0.088 | |
| Neurological deficit | 3 (25%) | 0 | 0.034 * | 2 (11.1%) | 1 (5.9%) | 1.000 | |
| POD-1 Alanine | 153.3 (103.7–186.4) | 156.8 (120–233.4) | 0.362 | 151 (105.3–192.3) | 162.2 (126.1–226.3) | 0.287 | 266.6 (206.3–311.8) |
| POD-7 Alanine | 186.3 (109.4–249.5) | 140.6 (109.7–163.5) | 0.132 | 120.9 (103.9–218.4) | 147.4 (113.7–175.5) | 0.636 | |
| POD-1 Arginine | 39.9 (35.1–45.3) | 37.1 (32–50.5) | 0.824 | 41.4 (34.6–50.1) | 36.8 (30.5–47.6) | 0.245 | 39.6 (32.8–57.3) |
| POD-7 Arginine | 48.1 (36.3–53.8) | 39.1 (30.8–48.6) | 0.151 | 47.8 (39–51.9) | 36.9 (28.2–46.4) | 0.038 * | |
| POD-1 Asparagine | 17.6 (15.7–22.6) | 19.2 (16.7–22) | 0.461 | 18.8 (16.5–24.3) | 18.5 (15.8–21.3) | 0.590 | 19.2 (13.6–26.4) |
| POD-7 Asparagine | 22.7 (17.1–25.9) | 19.8 (16.6–21.6) | 0.420 | 20.8 (16.8–25.6) | 19.6 (16.6–23.8) | 0.708 | |
| POD-1 Glutamine | 938.3 (823.9–1168.5) | 960.9 (867.1–1340.5) | 0.668 | 1053.7 (829.7–1345.3) | 924.5 (875.2–1107.9) | 0.318 | 915.8 (774.1–1071.1) |
| POD-7 Glutamine | 1163.9 (859.5–1301.4) | 1094 (963.2–1238.6) | 0.771 | 1048.8 (935.7–1301.4) | 1161.1 (952.9–1247.1) | 0.757 | |
| POD-1 Glutamic acid | 41.7 (38.8–56.6) | 50.7 (39.2–62.7) | 0.503 | 44 (38.3–60.9) | 42.1 (39.7–61.1) | 0.782 | 71.2 (61.2–92.5) |
| POD-7 Glutamic acid | 51.2 (38.7–61.9) | 47.8 (37.9–58.6) | 0.572 | 53 (41.9–65.9) | 46.5 (34.9–55.8) | 0.103 | |
| POD-1 Glycine | 102.1 (86.4–134.6) | 107.6 (91.6–131.4) | 0.932 | 114.9 (98.4–134.4) | 93.9 (83–125.5) | 0.126 | 178.8 (156.8–215.6) |
| POD-7 Glycine | 140.2 (90.7–196.3) | 111.9 (89.1–146.4) | 0.362 | 140.2 (99.9–171.8) | 100.1 (83.4–144.8) | 0.057 | |
| POD-1 Isoleucine | 28.6 (21–35.5) | 34.6 (22.8–44.5) | 0.461 | 33.9 (23.7–44.7) | 31 (21.5–39.5) | 0.424 | 36 (23.7–44.7) |
| POD-7 Isoleucine | 30.4 (23.9–47.6) | 38.2 (28.7–48.2) | 0.440 | 37.2 (26.3–52.9) | 35.2 (27.6–44.5) | 0.568 | |
| POD-1 Leucine | 96.4 (79.2–157.8) | 105.6 (78.3–124.2) | 0.905 | 101.5 (83.5–130.1) | 105.6 (71.3–132) | 0.935 | 138.1 (102.2–175.3) |
| POD-7 Leucine | 97.1 (88.8–126.9) | 94.6 (80.8–126.7) | 0.824 | 98.1 (88.6–135.7) | 94.6 (76.5–120.3) | 0.369 | |
| POD-1 Lysine | 69.7 (59–83.3) | 69.3 (61.6–78.2) | 0.905 | 74.6 (64.5–82.5) | 64.4 (55.4–74.1) | 0.110 | 75.4 (56.7–87) |
| POD-7 Lysine | 80.5 (53.6–90) | 72.8 (57.2–86.7) | 0.771 | 76.3 (61–87.8) | 78.6 (57.2–92.3) | 0.807 | |
| POD-1 Methionine | 12.5 (10.1–18.8) | 11.9 (9.1–18.2) | 0.851 | 12.5 (9.5–19.2) | 11.9 (9.7–18.1) | 0.961 | 17 (13.7–20.2) |
| POD-7 Methionine | 12.8 (11–17.6) | 11.2 (9.1–13.9) | 0.073 | 12.8 (10.6–17.3) | 11.2 (8.9–13) | 0.032 * | |
| POD-1 Phenylalanine | 37.6 (24.3–45.3) | 39.2 (31–42.6) | 0.824 | 42 (32.3–53.6) | 33.5 (28.5–40.1) | 0.049 * | 51.2 (8.4–65.3) |
| POD-7 Phenylalanine | 44.2 (22.7–63.4) | 40.9 (34–49.7) | 0.503 | 46.1 (32.7–55.9) | 39.7 (33.6–44.9) | 0.184 | |
| POD-1 Proline | 47.2 (39.6–76.3) | 62.2 (53.6–91) | 0.068 | 64.5 (45.4–91.5) | 58.5 (48.2–66.4) | 0.660 | 85.6 (63.6–101.6) |
| POD-7 Proline | 67.7 (50.3–125.1) | 71.6 (54.5–85.5) | 0.878 | 69.4 (51.2–81.3) | 71.6 (53–89.4) | 0.708 | |
| POD-1 Hydroxyproline | 2.7 (2–3.9) | 2.9 (2–4.3) | 0.440 | 2.1 (1.9–4.2) | 3.2 (2.4–5.1) | 0.038 * | 4.5 (2.4–7.3) |
| POD-7 Hydroxyproline | 2.6 (0.8–3.4) | 3.2 (0.2–4.3) | 0.440 | 2.2 (0.2–3.3) | 3.6 (2.3–4.5) | 0.053 | |
| POD-1 Serine | 39.3 (31.5–53.9) | 42.2 (34.5–51.4) | 0.878 | 42.3 (36.8–53.4) | 35.8 (30.4–51) | 0.184 | 46.2 (31.9–57.5) |
| POD-7 Serine | 47.8 (34.1–58.8) | 43.9 (39.5–52.2) | 0.986 | 48.3 (40.4–59.3) | 43.7 (36.6–52.1) | 0.335 | |
| POD-1 Threonine | 32 (22.8–39.6) | 34.7 (25.7–40.7) | 0.461 | 35.1 (29.4–41.2) | 27.8 (24.9–39.5) | 0.195 | 35.7 (25.8–48.6) |
| POD-7 Threonine | 33.8 (26.5–45.7) | 33.6 (28.2–43) | 0.878 | 36.7 (28.9–46.2) | 31.9 (26.7–42.7) | 0.386 | |
| POD-1 Tryptophan | 23.6 (21.6–26.1) | 26.5 (23.7–31.2) | 0.172 | 23.7 (21.2–31.4) | 26.5 (25.7–29.6) | 0.303 | 30.7 (19.9–37.8) |
| POD-7 Tryptophan | 22.9 (18.3–31.8) | 23.9 (18.2–33.1) | 0.986 | 24 (18.5–31.1) | 22.8 (18.2–36.1) | 0.757 | |
| POD-1 Tyrosine | 31.3 (25.3–40.6) | 29.5 (24.8–36.6) | 0.771 | 32.9 (26.1–41.5) | 27.3 (24.6–32.5) | 0.118 | 42 (35.8–52.4) |
| POD-7 Tyrosine | 33.9 (27.4–37.8) | 29.5 (24.2–37.8) | 0.420 | 33.6 (29.3–38.3) | 27.7 (20.7–37.8) | 0.118 | |
| POD-1 Valine | 108.4 (99.9–180.3) | 126.7 (93.7–151.3) | 0.797 | 114 (94.2–149.9) | 128 (93.8–153.7) | 0.287 | 167.6 (132.8–203.8) |
| POD-7 Valine | 122.7 (103.7–139.9) | 121.5 (105.4–146.9) | 0.932 | 129 (107.8–150.6) | 119.2 (95–138) | 0.173 | |
| POD-1 Histidine | 46.7 (37.4–56.1) | 47.1 (45–58.8) | 0.400 | 49.2 (42.9–58.1) | 46.6 (42.9–53.5) | 0.245 | 51.3 (44–67.3) |
| POD-7 Histidine | 49.4 (39–63.6) | 45.2 (40.7–60.3) | 0.745 | 46.2 (40.8–61.6) | 45.2 (39.2–61.2) | 0.782 | |
| RDW-CV [%CV] | 13.9 (13.3–14.75) | 12.8 (12.5–13.6) | 0.016 * | 13.4 (12.6–14.5) | 13 (12.5–14.3) | 0.716 | |
| RDW-CV >14.5 | 4 (33.3%) | 2 (8.7%) | 0.151 | 3 (16.7%) | 3 (17.6%) | 1 | |
| RDW-SD [fL] | 43.4 (40.6–48) | 41.6 (38.5–45) | 0.211 | 43.3 (40.3–45.6) | 41.6 (38. 5–44.9) | 0.373 | |
| Cerebral vasospasm | 10 (83.3%) | 8 (34.8%) | 0.011 * | 18 (100%) | NA | ||
| CVS (day) | 5 (4–6) | 5 (4.25–6) | 1 | 5 (4–6) | NA | ||
| 12-month GOS | 2 (1–2) | 4 (4–5) | <0.001 * | 2.5 (1.75–4) | 4 (4–5) | <0.001 * |
CVS, cerebral vasospasm; GCS, Glasgow coma scale; GOS, Glasgow outcome scale; LOS, length of stay in hospital; POD, postoperative day; WFNS, World Federation of Neurosurgical Societies.
Figure 1Principal component analysis and differential concentration analysis (volcano plots) showing the differences in amino acids concentration between SAH and control patients (A,B) and between day one and day seven post-operation (C,D). The relevant p-values are available in Table 4.
Differential concentration of amino acids in comparison without and with Benjamini-Hochberg correction of p-values. Concentrations were compared using U Mann-Whitney test.
| Amino Acid | POD 1 vs. Controls | POD 1 vs. POD 7 | POD 1 CVS vs. No CVS | POD 1 GOS 4–5 vs. GOS 1–3 | POD 7 CVS vs. No CVS | POD 7 GOS 4–5 vs. GOS 1–3 | ||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FC | Adjusted | Median Difference [nmol/mL] | Adjusted | FC | Adjusted | FC | Adjusted | FC | Adjusted | FC | Adjusted | |||||||
| Alanine | 0.7016 | <0.0001 | 0.0001 | −15.085 | 0.158359 | 0.77752 | 1.0049 | 0.2834 | 0.5563 | 1.2351 | 0.357 | 0.9446 | 1.086 | 0.6321 | 0.8044 | 0.732 | 0.1305 | 0.9445 |
| Arginine | 0.9326 | 0.7868 | 0.8489 | 2.06 | 0.827161 | 0.899814 | 1.2021 | 0.2413 | 0.5563 | 0.9723 | 0.8213 | 0.9446 | 1.259 | 0.0407 | 0.2739 | 0.8293 | 0.1491 | 0.9445 |
| Asparagine | 0.9613 | 0.7058 | 0.8382 | 1.955 | 0.403521 | 0.77752 | 1.0711 | 0.5974 | 0.8731 | 0.9545 | 0.4654 | 0.9446 | 1.0433 | 0.7042 | 0.8044 | 0.9333 | 0.414 | 0.9861 |
| Glutamine | 1.1165 | 0.0932 | 0.1667 | 142.95 | 0.394466 | 0.77752 | 1.0538 | 0.3221 | 0.5563 | 1.0508 | 0.664 | 0.9446 | 1.0099 | 0.7538 | 0.8044 | 0.9717 | 0.7809 | 0.9861 |
| Glutamic acid | 0.6656 | <0.0001 | 0.0001 | 5.41 | 0.576427 | 0.84247 | 1.2119 | 0.7917 | 0.9553 | 1.1815 | 0.4979 | 0.9446 | 1.2825 | 0.1057 | 0.37 | 0.8592 | 0.5663 | 0.9861 |
| Glycine | 0.6447 | <0.0001 | <0.0001 | 23.055 | 0.294711 | 0.77752 | 1.2596 | 0.1248 | 0.4741 | 0.871 | 0.9446 | 0.9446 | 1.2997 | 0.0577 | 0.2739 | 0.8403 | 0.3569 | 0.9861 |
| Isoleucine | 0.9199 | 0.558 | 0.7067 | 3.825 | 0.334075 | 0.77752 | 1.1715 | 0.4283 | 0.6781 | 1.1799 | 0.4549 | 0.9446 | 1.1392 | 0.5634 | 0.8044 | 1.0318 | 0.4444 | 0.9861 |
| Leucine | 0.8353 | 0.0154 | 0.0372 | −9.54 | 0.852456 | 0.899814 | 1.1543 | 0.9474 | 1 | 0.9827 | 0.917 | 0.9446 | 1.1902 | 0.3639 | 0.6748 | 0.9325 | 0.8348 | 0.9861 |
| Lysine | 1.0252 | 0.8969 | 0.8969 | 9.28 | 0.480881 | 0.77752 | 1.1243 | 0.1131 | 0.4741 | 0.9266 | 0.9032 | 0.9446 | 1.0851 | 0.8044 | 0.8044 | 0.9001 | 0.7676 | 0.9861 |
| Methionine | 0.8441 | 0.0157 | 0.0372 | −0.17333 | 0.279851 | 0.77752 | 1.2607 | 0.9605 | 1 | 0.8998 | 0.862 | 0.9446 | 1.4288 | 0.0346 | 0.2739 | 0.705 | 0.0734 | 0.9445 |
| Phenylalanine | 0.8684 | 0.0965 | 0.1667 | 2.195 | 0.265495 | 0.77752 | 1.2684 | 0.0515 | 0.4741 | 1.0539 | 0.8212 | 0.9446 | 1.2032 | 0.1812 | 0.4303 | 0.8549 | 0.4979 | 0.9861 |
| Proline | 0.7968 | 0.0073 | 0.0232 | 12.075 | 0.231797 | 0.77752 | 1.0548 | 0.6559 | 0.8901 | 1.1348 | 0.0681 | 0.9446 | 1.0574 | 0.7165 | 0.8044 | 0.8834 | 0.8894 | 0.9861 |
| Hydroxyproline | 0.614 | 0.0222 | 0.0468 | −0.2 | 0.491065 | 0.77752 | 0.6068 | 0.0407 | 0.4741 | 1.1181 | 0.4342 | 0.9446 | 0.5021 | 0.0513 | 0.2739 | 1.4491 | 0.4237 | 0.9861 |
| Serine | 0.9392 | 0.8042 | 0.8489 | 4.786667 | 0.045642 | 0.77752 | 1.1596 | 0.1813 | 0.5219 | 0.9604 | 0.8757 | 0.9446 | 1.1772 | 0.3301 | 0.6748 | 0.9703 | 0.9861 | 0.9861 |
| Threonine | 0.9521 | 0.4919 | 0.6676 | −0.36667 | 0.451178 | 0.77752 | 1.1531 | 0.1923 | 0.5219 | 0.9899 | 0.4549 | 0.9446 | 1.1285 | 0.3907 | 0.6748 | 0.9516 | 0.8894 | 0.9861 |
| Tryptophan | 0.8354 | 0.1951 | 0.2851 | −3.195 | 0.743223 | 0.882577 | 1.0028 | 0.2983 | 0.5563 | 1.0289 | 0.1697 | 0.9446 | 1.037 | 0.7664 | 0.8044 | 0.9835 | 0.9861 | 0.9861 |
| Tyrosine | 0.7386 | 0.0001 | 0.0003 | 2.625 | 0.668035 | 0.846178 | 1.2137 | 0.1208 | 0.4741 | 1.0028 | 0.781 | 0.9446 | 1.2141 | 0.1168 | 0.37 | 0.9171 | 0.424 | 0.9861 |
| Valine | 0.7515 | 0.0005 | 0.0019 | 4.07 | 0.656279 | 0.846178 | 1.1628 | 1 | 1 | 0.987 | 0.7944 | 0.9446 | 1.224 | 0.1707 | 0.4303 | 0.9169 | 0.9446 | 0.9861 |
| Histidine | 0.9195 | 0.134 | 0.2122 | −1.19 | 0.967753 | 0.967753 | 1.0721 | 0.8045 | 0.9553 | 1.0368 | 0.3945 | 0.9446 | 1.0926 | 0.7917 | 0.8044 | 0.8725 | 0.7412 | 0.9861 |
CVS, cerebral vasospasm; FC, fold change; POD, postoperative day.
Figure 2Heatmaps presenting standardized concentration of selected amino acids with hierarchical clustering across both amino acids and samples. (A) presents the comparison between SAH and control patients. SAH patients seem to cluster together. (B) presents intragroup clustering of patients with distinctive GOS and with or without CVS.
Figure 3Correlations between amino acids concentration in patients with SAH and between postoperative day one and day seven. Scale presents the value of R coefficient, indicating the strength of the correlation.
Figure 4Principal component analysis and differential concentration analysis (volcano plots) showing the differences in amino acids concentration on postoperative day 1 between patients who developed CVS or not (A,B) and good or bad GOS (C,D). The relevant p-values are available in Table 4.
Figure 5ROC analysis of selected amino acids in prediction of CVS has proved the predictive potential of phenylalanine (Phe) and hydroxyproline (Pro-OH). Area under the curves (AUC) were provided with their 95% confidence interval in parenthesis.
Performance of logistic regression models.
| Amino Acids Only (Pro-OH, Phe) | Hunt&Hess Scale Only (HH) | Combined Pro-OH, Phe, and HH | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Predictions (Odds Ratios) | Pro-OH | OR 0.76 (95%CI: 0.49–1.18) | HH | OR 6.84 (95%CI: 1.78–26.37) | Pro-OH | OR 0.91 (95%CI: 0.55–1.51) | |||
| Phe | OR 1.05 (95%CI: 0.99–1.11) | Phe | OR 1.11 (95%CI: 1.00–1.23) | ||||||
| HH | OR 15.47 (95%CI: 2.30–103.95) | ||||||||
| Confusion matrix | Prediction | Reference: | Prediction | Reference: | Prediction | Reference: | |||
| No CVS | CVS | No CVS | CVS | No CVS | CVS | ||||
| No CVS | 15 | 6 | No CVS | 12 | 4 | No CVS | 14 | 1 | |
| CVS | 2 | 12 | CVS | 5 | 14 | CVS | 3 | 17 | |
| Accuracy | 77.14% (95%CI: 59.86–89.56%) | 74.29% (95%CI: 56.74–87.51%) | 88.57% (95%CI: 73.26–96.80%) | ||||||
| Cutoff | ≥0.5455 | ≥0.7529 | ≥0.4283 | ||||||
| Sensitivity | 66.67% | 77.78% | 94.44% | ||||||
| Specificity | 88.24% | 70.59% | 82.35% | ||||||
| PPV | 85.71% | 73.68% | 85.00% | ||||||
| NPV | 71.43% | 75.00% | 93.33% | ||||||
| AUC ROC | 0.7451 (95%CI: 0.5619–0.9283) | 0.7745 (95%CI: 0.6322–0.9168) | 0.9052 (95%CI: 0.8056–1.0000) | ||||||
| LOOCV estimate of prediction error | 0.2390 | 0.2015 | 0.1797 | ||||||
AUC, area under the curve; CVS, cerebral vasospasm; HH, Hunt-Hess scale; LOOCV, leave-one-out cross-validation; NPV, negative predictive value; positive predictive value; Phe, phenylalanine; Pro-OH, hydroxyproline.
Figure 6ROC curves of developed logistic regression models with the nomogram for the best model. As shown in (B), the combined model outperformed the model based on amino acids concentration alone (Pro-OH, Phe) and the model based on Hunt-Hess (HH) scale. The best cutoff point for the logistic regression estimate was calculated based on Youden index and marked with arrows and performance characteristics. (A) allows the utilization of the combined model. After scoring individual predictors, if the sum exceeds 8.4, one can predict CVS with a sensitivity of 94.44% and specificity 82.35%.