| Literature DB >> 35028439 |
Joshua A Mwasunda1,2, Jacob I Irunde2, Damian Kajunguri3, Dmitry Kuznetsov1.
Abstract
Bovine cysticercosis and human taeniasis are neglected food-borne diseases that pose challenge to food safety, human health and livelihood of rural livestock farmers. In this paper, we have formulated and analyzed a deterministic model for transmission dynamics and control of taeniasis and cysticercosis in humans and cattle respectively. The analysis shows that both the disease free equilibrium (DFE) and endemic equilibrium (EE) exist. To study the dynamics of the diseases, we derived the basic reproduction number R 0 by next generation matrix method which shows whether the diseases die or persist in humans and cattle. The diseases clear if R 0 < 1 and persist when R 0 > 1. The normalized forward sensitivity index is used to derive sensitive indices of model parameters. Sensitivity analysis results indicate that human's and cattle's recruitment rates, infection rate of cattle from contaminated environment, probability of humans to acquire taeniasis due to consumption of infected meat, defecation rate of humans with taeniasis and the consumption rate of raw or undercooked infected meat are the most positive sensitive parameters whereas the natural death rates for humans, cattle, Taenia saginata eggs and the proportion of unconsumed infected meat are the most negative sensitive parameters in diseases' transmission. These results suggest that control measures such as improving meat cooking, meat inspection and treatment of infected humans will be effective for controlling taeniasis and cysticercosis in humans and cattle respectively. The optimal control theory is applied by considering three time dependent controls which are improved meat cooking, vaccination of cattle, and treatment of humans with taeniasis when they are implemented in combination. The Pontryagin's maximum principle is adopted to find the necessary conditions for existence of the optimal controls. The Runge Kutta order four forward-backward sweep method is implemented in Matlab to solve the optimal control problem. The results indicate that a strategy which focuses on improving meat cooking and treatment of humans with taeniasis is the optimal strategy for diseases' control.Entities:
Keywords: Basic reproduction number; Bovine cysticercosis; Effective reproduction number; Human taeniasis; Numerical simulation; Optimal control
Year: 2021 PMID: 35028439 PMCID: PMC8741606 DOI: 10.1016/j.parepi.2021.e00236
Source DB: PubMed Journal: Parasite Epidemiol Control ISSN: 2405-6731
Fig. 1The model flow diagram.
Description of the state variables.
| Variable | Description | Variable | Description |
|---|---|---|---|
| Susceptible humans | Infected cattle | ||
| Infected humans | Recovered cattle | ||
| Susceptible cattle | Meat of infected cattle | ||
| Vaccinated cattle |
Parameters’ description and their values (unit: yr−1).
| Parameter | Description | Value | Source |
|---|---|---|---|
| Λ | Per capita recruitment rate of human population | 2247 | |
| Per capita natural death rate of humans | 0.0141 | ||
| Rate of eating raw or undercooked meat of infected cattle | 0.023 | Assumed | |
| Probability of human infection with | 0.093 | Assumed | |
| Defecation rate by humans with taeniasis | 0.150 | Assumed | |
| Recovery rate of humans from taeniasis | 0.225 | Assumed | |
| Λ | Per capita recruitment rate of cattle | 750 | Assumed |
| 0.00625 | Assumed | ||
| Vaccine efficacy for protecting vaccinated cattle against infection | 0.1968 | Assumed | |
| Slaughter rate of infected cattle | 0.235 | Assumed | |
| Per capita natural death rate of cattle | 0.33 | ||
| Proportion of unconsumed meat of infected cattle | 0.225 | Assumed | |
| Harvesting rate of susceptible cattle | 0.213 | Assumed | |
| Harvesting rate of vaccinated cattle | 0.183 | Assumed | |
| Harvesting rate of recovered cattle | 0.153 | Assumed | |
| Recovery rate of infected cattle from cysticercosis | 0.125 | Assumed | |
| Cattle's immunity waning rate | 0.213 | Assumed | |
| Vaccination rate of susceptible cattle | 0.115 | Assumed | |
| Vaccine waning rate in cattle | 0.248 | Assumed | |
| Proportion of adequately cooked meat of infected cattle | 0.350 | Assumed | |
| Per capita death rate of | 10.42 | Assumed |
Sensitivity indices.
| Parameter | Sensitivity index | Parameter | Sensitivity index |
|---|---|---|---|
| Λ | +0.5000 | Λ | +0.5000 |
| +0.5000 | −0.5000 | ||
| −1.0000 | + 0.2920 | ||
| + 0.5000 | −0.5959 | ||
| +0.4536 | −0.4536 | ||
| +0.5000 | −0.1961 |
Fig. 2Impact of applying all controls on infected humans, cattle and taenia eggs.
Fig. 3Impact of vaccination of cattle and treatment of humans with taeniasis on infected humans, cattle and taenia eggs.
Fig. 4Impact of improved beef cooking and vaccination of cattle on infected humans, cattle and taenia eggs.
Fig. 5Impact of improved meat cooking and treatment of humans with taeniasis on infected humans, cattle and taenia eggs.
Summary of intervention strategies
| Strategy | Description |
|---|---|
| 1. | Improved meat cooking, vaccination of cattle and human treatment |
| 2. | Vaccination of cattle and human treatment |
| 3. | Improved meat cooking and vaccination of cattle |
| 4. | Improved meat cooking and human treatment |