| Literature DB >> 34949638 |
Kasper Thorup1,2, Lykke Pedersen3, Rute R da Fonseca3, Babak Naimi4, David Nogués-Bravo3, Mario Krapp5, Andrea Manica5, Mikkel Willemoes3,6, Sissel Sjöberg3,6, Shaohong Feng7, Guangji Chen7,8, Alba Rey-Iglesia9, Paula F Campos10, Robert Beyer5,11, Miguel B Araújo4,12, Anders J Hansen13, Guojie Zhang7,14,15,16, Anders P Tøttrup17, Carsten Rahbek3,18,19,20.
Abstract
Migration allows animals to exploit spatially separated and seasonally available resources at a continental to global scale. However, responding to global climatic changes might prove challenging, especially for long-distance intercontinental migrants. During glacial periods, when conditions became too harsh for breeding in the north, avian migrants have been hypothesized to retract their distribution to reside within small refugial areas. Here, we present data showing that an Afro-Palearctic migrant continued seasonal migration, largely within Africa, during previous glacial-interglacial cycles with no obvious impact on population size. Using individual migratory track data to hindcast monthly bioclimatic habitat availability maps through the last 120,000 y, we show altered seasonal use of suitable areas through time. Independently derived effective population sizes indicate a growing population through the last 40,000 y. We conclude that the migratory lifestyle enabled adaptation to shifting climate conditions. This indicates that populations of resource-tracking, long-distance migratory species could expand successfully during warming periods in the past, which could also be the case under future climate scenarios.Entities:
Keywords: effective population size; hindcasting; long-distance migration; paleoclimate reconstruction
Mesh:
Year: 2021 PMID: 34949638 PMCID: PMC8719893 DOI: 10.1073/pnas.2023836118
Source DB: PubMed Journal: Proc Natl Acad Sci U S A ISSN: 0027-8424 Impact factor: 11.205
Fig. 1.Maximum predicted monthly suitability (top 5% cell occupancy) for migratory red-backed shrikes from the LGM (21,000 B.P.) until present. (A) Annual migration of red-backed shrikes breeding in South Scandinavia as revealed by geolocator tracking; positions during stationary periods are indicated (color represent months). (B) Distance between breeding and wintering latitudes of maximum predicted suitability from the LGM to present; wintering latitude was in Africa throughout, and breeding latitude during LGM was in Africa (blue) but in Europe (red) from 14,000 B.P. (C) Predicted area of occupancy during breeding (July, orange) and wintering (January, green) at the LGM (Left) and present (Right). Red-backed shrikes do not currently breed in Africa, and cells with predicted area of presence in Africa during breeding are crossed. (D) Predicted area of occupancy during stationary periods across the annual cycle from LGM (Left) to present (Right); lines show the estimated mean latitude of maximum suitability cells for each month.
Fig. 2.From the Eemian (120,000 B.P.) to the present (0 B.P.), temporal alignment of (A) changes in global surface temperature during the last 1 million y (in Celsius compared to the present indicated by dotted, vertical line), (B) estimated latitudinal migration distance (kilometers), (C) predicted area of suitable breeding habitat (number of cells with suitability above monthly threshold; dotted line indicates the present condition), and (D) effective population size estimates (BSP) for Lanius clades 1 and 2.
Fig. 3.Summed area of all cells with predicted presence from binary projection (threshold maximizing sensitivity and specificity for each month), presented as mean of all months (Left) and quarterly means (Right) from 120,000 B.P. to present (0 B.P.). Shaded area indicates 95% CI.
Fig. 4.Effective population size estimates back in time. BSPs of the two Lanius clades based on complete mitochondrial genomes. The solid lines represent the median estimates of the effective population size, with the 95% high posterior density interval denoted by the dashed lines (note the logarithmic scale on the y-axis).