| Literature DB >> 34889080 |
Innocent G Asiimwe1, Marc Blockman2, Karen Cohen2, Clint Cupido3,4, Claire Hutchinson1, Barry Jacobson5, Mohammed Lamorde6, Jennie Morgan7, Johannes P Mouton2, Doreen Nakagaayi8, Emmy Okello8, Elise Schapkaitz9, Christine Sekaggya-Wiltshire6, Jerome R Semakula6, Catriona Waitt1,6, Eunice J Zhang1, Andrea L Jorgensen10, Munir Pirmohamed1.
Abstract
Warfarin remains the most widely prescribed oral anticoagulant in sub-Saharan Africa. However, because of its narrow therapeutic index, dosing can be challenging. We have therefore (a) evaluated and compared the performance of 21 machine-learning techniques in predicting stable warfarin dose in sub-Saharan Black-African patients and (b) externally validated a previously developed Warfarin Anticoagulation in Patients in Sub-Saharan Africa (War-PATH) clinical dose-initiation algorithm. The development cohort included 364 patients recruited from eight outpatient clinics and hospital departments in Uganda and South Africa (June 2018-July 2019). Validation was conducted using an external validation cohort (270 patients recruited from August 2019 to March 2020 in 12 outpatient clinics and hospital departments). Based on the mean absolute error (MAE; mean of absolute differences between the actual and predicted doses), random forest regression (12.07 mg/week; 95% confidence interval [CI], 10.39-13.76) was the best performing machine-learning technique in the external validation cohort, whereas the worst performing technique was model trees (17.59 mg/week; 95% CI, 15.75-19.43). By comparison, the simple, commonly used regression technique (ordinary least squares) performed similarly to more complex supervised machine-learning techniques and achieved an MAE of 13.01 mg/week (95% CI, 11.45-14.58). In summary, we have demonstrated that simpler regression techniques perform similarly to more complex supervised machine-learning techniques. We have also externally validated our previously developed clinical dose-initiation algorithm, which is being prospectively tested for clinical utility.Entities:
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Year: 2021 PMID: 34889080 PMCID: PMC8752108 DOI: 10.1002/psp4.12740
Source DB: PubMed Journal: CPT Pharmacometrics Syst Pharmacol ISSN: 2163-8306
Patient characteristics
| Variables | Development cohort, | External validation cohort, |
|---|---|---|
| Country of recruitment, | ||
| South Africa | 193 (53.0) | 171 (63.3) |
| Uganda | 171 (47.0) | 99 (36.7) |
| Age, y | ||
| Median (IQR) | 46.0 (34.0–56.7) | 45.0 (35.0–59.0) |
| Sex, | ||
| Female | 266 (73.1) | 195 (72.2) |
| Male | 98 (26.9) | 75 (27.8) |
| Weight, kg | ||
| Median (IQR) | 71.0 (59.4–85.0) | 73.4 (60.0–90.0) |
| Missing, | 11 (3.0) | 1 (0.4) |
| INR target range, | ||
| 2.0–3.0 | 237 (65.1) | 181 (67.0) |
| 2.5–3.5 | 127 (34.9) | 89 (33.0) |
| HIV status, | ||
| Negative | 282 (77.5) | 207 (76.7) |
| Positive | 59 (16.2) | 58 (21.5) |
| Unknown | 23 (6.3) | 5 (1.9) |
| Simvastatin/amiodarone, | ||
| Yes | 36 (9.9) | 22 (8.1) |
| No | 328 (90.1) | 248 (91.9) |
| Stable warfarin dose, mg/week | ||
| Median (IQR) | 35.0 (30.0–52.5) | 35.0 (30.0–45.0) |
Abbreviations: HIV, human immunodeficiency virus; INR, international normalized range; IQR, interquartile range.
Those with heart valve disorders have a higher target range (2.5–3.5) than the rest (2.0–3.0) who include those with atrial fibrillation and venous thromboembolism.
FIGURE 1Performance of the various algorithms in the Warfarin Anticoagulation in Patients in Sub‐Saharan Africa development (N = 364) and external validation (N = 270) cohorts. (a) Mean absolute error (MAE), defined as the mean of absolute differences between the actual and predicted doses. (b) Unbiased mean absolute percentage error (MAPE), where unbiased MAPE = (exp(mean(absolute(log(predicted dose/actual dose))))– 1) × 100. (c) Bias, computed as (exp(mean(log(predicted dose/actual dose))) – 1) × 100, with negative and positive values respectively implying underestimation and overestimation. (d) Percentage of patients with ideal dose, where the ideal dose was defined as a predicted dose within 20% of the actual dose. (e) Low risk of suboptimal anticoagulation, defined as having an actual dose within 40% of the predicted dose. Error bars represent 95% confidence intervals. Based on three imputed data sets (the imputation models incorporated all predictor variables and the stable weekly dose). LASSO, least absolute shrinkage and selection operator
FIGURE 2Percentage of patients at risk of suboptimal dosing in the external validation cohort (N = 270). Error bars represent 95% confidence intervals. Being at risk of underdosing or overdosing was defined as, respectively, having an actual dose at least 40% lower or higher than the predicted dose. War‐PATH, Warfarin Anticoagulation in Patients in Sub‐Saharan Africa