| Literature DB >> 34841251 |
Amy M Shui1, Phillip Kim2, Vamsi Aribindi2, Chiung-Yu Huang1, Mi-Ok Kim1, Sachin Rangarajan2, Kaelan Schorger2, J Matthew Aldrich3, Hanmin Lee2.
Abstract
Accurately measuring the risk of pressure injury remains the most important step for effective prevention and intervention. Time-dependent risk factors for pressure injury development in the adult intensive care unit setting are not well understood.Entities:
Keywords: critical care; electronic health records; forecasting; pressure ulcer; risk assessment; risk factors
Year: 2021 PMID: 34841251 PMCID: PMC8613355 DOI: 10.1097/CCE.0000000000000580
Source DB: PubMed Journal: Crit Care Explor ISSN: 2639-8028
Covariates in 24-Hour Cohort Multivariable Prediction Models and Associated Point Values for Hospital-Acquired Pressure Injury
| Model | Variable | Log-SHR (β) | SHR (95% CI) |
| Points |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Model with static predictors only | Age ≥ 50 yr | 0.444 | 1.56 (1.13–2.16) | 0.007 | 4 |
| BMI (kg/m2) | |||||
| Underweight: < 18.5 vs normal (18.5–<25) | 0.450 | 1.57 (1.04–2.38) | 0.034 | 5 | |
| Overweight: 25–<30 vs normal (18.5–<25) | –0.226 | 0.80 (0.57–1.12) | 0.187 | –2 | |
| Class 1 obesity: 30–<35 vs normal (18.5–<25) | 0.284 | 1.33 (0.93–1.91) | 0.124 | 3 | |
| Class 2 obesity: 35–<40 vs normal (18.5–<25) | 0.371 | 1.45 (0.89–2.37) | 0.138 | 4 | |
| Class 3 obesity: ≥ 40 vs normal (18.5–<25) | 0.705 | 2.02 (1.28–3.20) | 0.003 | 7 | |
| Model with both dynamic and static predictors | Age ≥ 50 yr | 0.366 | 1.44 (1.02–2.04) | 0.040 | 4 |
| BMI (kg/m2) | |||||
| Underweight: < 18.5 vs normal (18.5-< 25) | 0.376 | 1.46 (0.95–2.24) | 0.088 | 4 | |
| Overweight: 25–<30 vs normal (18.5–<25) | –0.224 | 0.80 (0.56–1.13) | 0.208 | –2 | |
| Class 1 obesity: 30–<35 vs normal (18.5–<25) | 0.273 | 1.31 (0.90–1.91) | 0.152 | 3 | |
| Class 2 obesity: 35–<40 vs normal (18.5–<25) | 0.397 | 1.49 (0.90–2.47) | 0.124 | 4 | |
| Class 3 obesity: ≥ 40 vs normal (18.5–<25) | 0.728 | 2.07 (1.32–3.26) | 0.002 | 7 | |
| Maximum of lactate serum values within 24 hr of admission (mg/dL) | |||||
| > 3 vs ≤ 3 | 0.356 | 1.43 (1.05–1.95) | 0.025 | 4 | |
| Missing vs ≤ 3 | –0.343 | 0.71 (0.51–0.99) | 0.046 | –3 | |
| Vasopressor medication ordered within 24 hr of admission | 0.307 | 1.36 (1.01–1.83) | 0.045 | 3 | |
| Antifungal medication ordered within 24 hr of admission | 0.345 | 1.41 (1.07–1.86) | 0.014 | 3 | |
| Minimum of Braden Scale score within 24 hr of admission | |||||
| 6–12 vs 17–23 | 0.487 | 1.63 (1.13–2.36) | 0.010 | 5 | |
| 13–14 vs 17–23 | –0.054 | 0.95 (0.61–1.47) | 0.808 | –1 | |
| 15–16 vs 17–23 | –0.008 | 0.99 (0.65–1.51) | 0.970 | 0 | |
| Missing vs 17–23 | 0.291 | 1.34 (0.78–2.29) | 0.289 | 3 | |
BMI = body mass index, SHR = subdistribution hazard ratio.
Figure 1.Cumulative incidence function for hospital-acquired pressure injury (HAPI) and competing risk death at least 24 hr from admission by quintiles of dynamic model risk score.
Concordance Indices for Models in Internal Validation Set
| Day | Concordance Indices | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Baseline Risk Score | 24-hr Risk Scores | 72-hr Risk Scores | 168-hr Risk Scores | ||||
| Dynamic Model | Static Model | Dynamic Model | Static Model | Dynamic Model | Static Model | ||
| 1 |
| NA | NA | NA | NA | NA | NA |
| 2 |
|
| 0.60 | NA | NA | NA | NA |
| 3 | 0.66 |
| 0.62 | NA | NA | NA | NA |
| 4 | 0.59 |
| 0.57 | 0.69 | 0.38 | NA | NA |
| 5 | 0.59 |
| 0.64 | 0.65 | 0.50 | NA | NA |
| 6 | 0.66 |
| 0.62 | 0.67 | 0.51 | NA | NA |
| 7 | 0.64 |
| 0.60 | 0.69 | 0.47 | NA | NA |
| 8 | 0.64 | 0.66 | 0.59 | 0.66 | 0.44 | 0.62 | 0.23 |
| 9 | 0.59 | 0.63 | 0.57 | 0.64 | 0.50 | 0.54 | 0.34 |
| 10 | 0.60 | 0.64 | 0.58 | 0.62 | 0.51 | 0.59 | 0.42 |
| 20 | 0.56 | 0.59 | 0.58 | 0.59 | 0.56 | 0.56 | 0.57 |
| 30 | 0.57 | 0.59 | 0.59 | 0.62 | 0.58 | 0.53 | 0.54 |
NA = not applicable.
aThe c-indices for the 24-hr dynamic model predicting hospital-acquired pressure injury (HAPI) events over the entire prediction interval (> 24 hr) vs only within the 24- to 72-hr interval were 0.61 and 0.74, respectively.
bThe c-indices for the 72-hr dynamic model predicting HAPI events over the entire prediction interval (> 72 hr) vs only within the 72- to 168-hour interval were 0.58 and 0.67, respectively.
Bolded values are ≥ 0.7.
Figure 2.Calibration plots for 24-hr cohort prediction model risk scores.
Characteristics in 24-Hour Cohort Training and Validation Samples
| Variable | % ( | |
|---|---|---|
| Training ( | Validation ( | |
| Outcome at least 24 hr after admission | ||
| HAPI diagnosis | 1.9 (266) | 1.8 (111) |
| Death without HAPI | 6.6 (924) | 6.6 (394) |
| Median (IQR) days from admission to HAPI diagnosis | 10 (5–19) | 12 (6–20) |
| Median (IQR) days from admission to death | 9 (5–17) | 9 (5–18) |
| Characteristics at start of encounter | ||
| Age (yr) | 61.3 ± 17.4 (14,025) | 61.2 ± 17.1 (6,012) |
| Male gender | 53.1 (7,452) | 53.3 (3,207) |
| Body mass index (kg/m2) | 27.0 ± 7.2 (13,553) | 26.9 ± 7.1 (5,797) |
| Preexisting diagnoses | ||
| Diabetes | 21.6 (3,022) | 20.9 (1,257) |
| Chronic pulmonary disease | 21.3 (2,988) | 22.4 (1,347) |
| Renal failure | 22.0 (3,080) | 23.6 (1,414) |
| Congestive heart failure | 14.0 (1,967) | 14.7 (885) |
| Peripheral vascular disease | 8.3 (1,164) | 8.4 (506) |
| Laboratory results within 24 hr of admission | ||
| Maximum of WBC values (1,000 cells/µL) | 12.9 ± 18.2 (12,662) | 12.8 ± 14.0 (5,411) |
| Minimum of sodium values (mg/dL) | 135.4 ± 4.6 (12,555) | 135.4 ± 4.6 (5,371) |
| Minimum of hematocrit values (%) | 32.0 ± 6.8 (12,673) | 32.0 ± 7.0 (5,423) |
| Maximum of Pa | 45.2 ± 11.3 (8,003) | 45.1 ± 11.1 (3,454) |
| Minimum of Pa | 98.5 ± 94.6 (7,893) | 97.9 ± 93.8 (3,411) |
| Maximum of creatinine values (mg/dL) | 1.4 ± 1.8 (12,645) | 1.4 ± 1.8 (5,410) |
| Minimum of blood pH values | 7.33 ± 0.10 (8,049) | 7.33 ± 0.10 (3,472) |
| Minimum of platelet count values (1,000 cells/µL) | 191.4 ± 97.9 (12,628) | 193.2 ± 98.4 (5,397) |
| Maximum of lactate serum values (mg/dL) | 2.8 ± 2.7 (7,674) | 2.9 ± 2.9 (3,312) |
| Maximum of nonfasting glucose values (mg/dL) | 169.9 ± 106.5 (9,742) | 171.1 ± 111.8 (4,186) |
| Medication ordered within 24 hr of admission | ||
| Paralytic | 4.7 (627) | 4.5 (257) |
| Vasopressor | 25.4 (3,413) | 26.7 (1,537) |
| Antibiotic | 63.4 (8,525) | 62.5 (3,591) |
| Antifungal medication | 44.1 (5,931) | 44.1 (2,532) |
| Minimum of Braden Scale score within 24 hr of admission | 16.3 ± 3.5 (12,780) | 16.4 ± 3.5 (5,439) |
| 6–12 | 14.7 (2,060) | 14.2 (851) |
| 13–14 | 13.0 (1,821) | 12.9 (778) |
| 15–16 | 17.3 (2,423) | 17.0 (1,023) |
| 17–23 | 46.2 (6,476) | 46.4 (2,787) |
| Missing | 8.9 (1,245) | 9.5 (573) |
HAPI = hospital-acquired pressure injury, IQR = interquartile range.