| Literature DB >> 34808084 |
Mory Keita, Héloïse Lucaccioni, Michel Kalongo Ilumbulumbu, Jonathan Polonsky, Justus Nsio-Mbeta, Gaston Tshapenda Panda, Pierre Celeste Adikey, John Kombe Ngwama, Michel Kasereka Tosalisana, Boubacar Diallo, Lorenzo Subissi, Adama Dakissaga, Iris Finci, Maria Moitinho de Almeida, Debarati Guha-Sapir, Ambrose Talisuna, Alexandre Delamou, Stephanie Dagron, Olivia Keiser, Steve Ahuka-Mundeke.
Abstract
The 10th and largest Ebola virus disease epidemic in the Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC) was declared in North Kivu Province in August 2018 and ended in June 2020. We describe and evaluate an Early Warning, Alert and Response System (EWARS) implemented in the Beni health zone of DRC during August 5, 2018-June 30, 2020. During this period, 194,768 alerts were received, of which 30,728 (15.8%) were validated as suspected cases. From these, 801 confirmed and 3 probable cases were detected. EWARS showed an overall good performance: sensitivity and specificity >80%, nearly all (97%) of alerts investigated within 2 hours of notification, and good demographic representativeness. The average cost of the system was US $438/case detected and US $1.8/alert received. The system was stable, despite occasional disruptions caused by political insecurity. Our results demonstrate that EWARS was a cost-effective component of the Ebola surveillance strategy in this setting.Entities:
Keywords: DRC; Democratic Republic of the Congo; EWARS; Early Warning Alert and Response System; Ebola; Ebola virus infection; outbreak; surveillance; viruses
Mesh:
Year: 2021 PMID: 34808084 PMCID: PMC8632192 DOI: 10.3201/eid2712.210290
Source DB: PubMed Journal: Emerg Infect Dis ISSN: 1080-6040 Impact factor: 6.883
Figure 1Organization of the Early Warning, Alert and Response System as used in the Democratic Republic of the Congo, August 2018–June 2020. Asterisk (*) indicates 1 negative result for a deceased suspected case-patient or 2 negative results within 72 hours for an alive suspected case-patient. ETC, Ebola treatment center.
Figure 2Flow diagram of alerts in the Early Warning, Alert and Response System and their outcomes in 3 health zones, Democratic Republic of the Congo, August 2018–June 2020.
Figure 3Trend in daily number of alerts from the Early Warning, Alert and Response System by final validation status in 3 health zones, Democratic Republic of the Congo, August 2018–June 2020. Key security incidents during the epidemic period are depicted along the timeline above the graphic. MONUSCO is the name of the UN peacekeeping force in the country. ETC, Ebola treatment center.
Characteristics of Ebola virus disease alerts received in Beni subcoordination, Democratic Republic of the Congo, August 5, 2018–June 30, 2020
| Characteristic | No. (%) alerts, n = 194,768 |
|---|---|
| Year | |
| 2018 | 3,211 (1.6) |
| 2019 | 67,579 (34.7) |
| 2020 | 123,978 (63.7) |
| Final alert status | |
| Invalidated | 163,606 (84.0) |
| Validated | 30,728 (15.8) |
| Not investigated | 434 (0.2) |
| Alert initial status | |
| Deceased | 5,230 (2.7) |
| Alive | 189,538 (97) |
| Final case classification | |
| Not a case | 193,964 (99.6) |
| Confirmed case | 801 (0.4) |
| Probable | 3 (<0.1) |
| Source of alert | |
| Active case finding | 121,970 (62.6) |
| Health structure | 36,911 (19.0) |
| Community | 28,928 (15.0) |
| Other surveillance sites | 6,959 (3.6) |
| Health zone | |
| Beni | 167,503 (86.0) |
| Mutwanga | 12,891 (6.6) |
| Oicha | 14,374 (7.4) |
| Sex | |
| F | 109,605 (56.3) |
| M | 84,442 (43.4) |
| Unknown | 721 (0.4) |
| Age group | |
| 0–4 | 45,934 (23.6) |
| 5–9 | 22,220 (11.4) |
| 10–19 | 36,825 (18.9) |
| 20–29 | 37,945 (19.5) |
| 30–39 | 21,975 (11.3) |
| 40–49 | 11,186 (5.7) |
| 50–59 | 6,668 (3.4) |
|
| 8,679 (4.5) |
| Unknown | 3,336 (1.7) |
| Known contact of confirmed or probable case | |
| No | 194,052 (99.6) |
| Yes | 672 (0.3) |
| Unknown | 44 (0.1) |
Evaluation results and overall characteristics of Ebola virus disease alerts from EWARS, Democratic Republic of the Congo, August 5, 2018–June 30, 2020*
| Alert system | Suspected case definition | Total | % (95% CI) | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| No. met | No. unmet | Sensitivity | Specificity | PPV | NPV | ||
| Validated | 15,163 | 15,561 | 30,724 | ||||
| Invalidated | 2,764 | 160,645 | 163,409 | ||||
| Total | 15,245 | 184,104 | 194,133 | 84.6 (84.1–85.1) | 91.2 (91.0–91.3) | 49.4 (48.8–49.9) | 98.3 (98.2–98.4) |
*Total excludes 434 (0.2%) alerts that were not investigated and 201 (0.1%) alerts that could not be classified according to the case definition due to missing data. EWARS, Early Warning, Alert and Response System; NPV, negative predictive value; PPV, positive predictive value.
Evaluation of EWARS alerts by source of Ebola virus disease alert and health zone, Democratic Republic of the Congo, August 5, 2018–June 30, 2020
| Category | % (95% CI) | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sensitivity | Specificity | PPV | NPV | |
| Source of alert | ||||
| Active case finding/IPC | 87.5 (86.9–88.1) | 91.7 (91.6–91.9) | 51.2 (50.4–51.9) | 98.7 (98.6–98.7) |
| Community | 91.4 (90.1–92.7) | 93.6 (93.3–93.9) | 48.3 (46.6–50.0) | 99.4 (99.3–99.5) |
| Health facility | 65.4 (63.8–67.0) | 96.2 (96.0- 96.4) | 64.5 (62.9–66.1) | 96.4 (96.2–96.6) |
| Other surveillance sites | 98.0 (97.4–98.7) | 34.3 (33.0–35.6) | 33.0 (31.7–34.2) | 98.1 (97.5–98.8) |
| Health zone | ||||
| Beni | 94.8 (94.4–95.2) | 90.6 (90.5–90.8) | 44.9 (44.3–45.5) | 99.5 (99.5–99.6) |
| Mutwanga | 54.9 (52.4–57.3) | 96.4 (96–96.7) | 68.2 (65.7–70.8) | 93.8 (93.3–94.2) |
| Oicha | 64.3 (62.8–65.8) | 93.3 (92.8–93.8) | 78.6 (77.2–80.1) | 87.2 (86.6–87.9) |
*EWARS, Early Warning, Alert and Response System; IPC, Infection Prevention and Control; NPV, negative predictive value; PPV, positive predictive value.
Figure 4Timeliness over time of alerts from the Early Warning, Alert and Response System, Democratic Republic of the Congo, August 2018–June 2020. Timeliness is defined as weekly median time (in minutes) from alert transmission to the start of the investigation.
Figure 5Trend in daily number of alerts in the Early Warning, Alert and Response System in 3 health zones in the Democratic Republic of the Congo, August 2018–June 2020.
Costs for EWARS in Beni, Mutwanga, and Oicha, Democratic Republic of the Congo, August 2018–June 2020*
| Health zone | Item | Implementation period costs, USD | Total cost, USD | ||
| 2018 Aug 5–Dec 31 | 2019 Jan 1– Dec 31 | 2020 Jan 1–Jun 30 | |||
| Beni | Prime staff for alerts management teams | 6,000 | 25,200 | 12,600 | 43,800 |
| Prime staff for data managers | 900 | 10,350 | 5,400 | 16,650 | |
| Ambulance rental | 6,000 | 72,000 | 36,000 | 114,000 | |
| Fuel | 9,600 | 36,000 | 18,000 | 63,600 | |
| Purchase of telephones | 175 | NA | NA | 175 | |
| Purchase of materials† | 5,500 | 12,000 | 6,000 | 23,500 | |
| Communication credit | 750 | 3,600 | 2,100 | 6,450 | |
|
| Green numbers‡ | 15,200 | 15,200 | NA | 30,400 |
| Oicha | Prime for alerts management teams | NA | 12,150 | 6,300 | 18,450 |
| Prime for data managers | NA | 5,400 | 2,700 | 8,100 | |
|
| Communication credit | NA | 1,200 | 600 | 1,800 |
| Mutwanga | Prime for alerts management teams | NA | 7,200 | 5,400 | 12,600 |
| Prime for data managers | NA | 7,200 | 5,400 | 12,600 | |
|
| Communication credit | NA | 800 | 600 | 1,400 |
| Total | 44,125 | 208,300 | 101,100 | 353,525 | |
*Expenditures included direct and indirect costs. EWARS, Early Warning, Alert and Response System; NA, not applicable. †Flip charts, markers, printed forms. ‡Telephone numbers 0820800001 and 0999009405, which health workers and community members could use for no charge. WHO covered this expense.