| Literature DB >> 34733911 |
Xiaoyuan Chen1,2,3,4, Dawei Rong1,2,3,4, Long Zhang2,3,4, Chuangye Ni2,3,4, Guoyong Han2,3,4, Yiwei Lu2,3,4, Xuejiao Chen2,3,4, Yun Gao2,3,4, Xuehao Wang1,2,3,4.
Abstract
BACKGROUND: Lymph node metastasis (LNM) is a well-established prognostic factor for intrahepatic cholangiocarcinoma (ICC), but there are still some controversies relating to the evaluation of nodal status. Therefore, we investigated the role of lymph node dissection (LND), compared the prognostic performances of different nodal staging systems, and then developed and validated a nomogram to predict cancer-specific survival (CSS) of ICC patients.Entities:
Keywords: Intrahepatic cholangiocarcinoma (ICC); Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results program (SEER program); lymph node dissection (LND); lymph node ratio (LNR); nomogram
Year: 2021 PMID: 34733911 PMCID: PMC8506549 DOI: 10.21037/atm-21-2785
Source DB: PubMed Journal: Ann Transl Med ISSN: 2305-5839
Baseline characteristics data and survival analysis of study patients
| Factors | No. of patients (N=644) | CSS | Univariable | Multivariate | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1-yr | 3-yr | 5-yr | P | HR (95% CI) | P | ||||
| Age | 0.169 | ||||||||
| ≤60 | 268 (41.6) | 90.5 | 59.1 | 43.9 | Reference | ||||
| >60 | 376 (58.4) | 83.9 | 53.7 | 40.0 | 1.376 (1.115–1.698) | 0.003 | |||
| Sex | 0.715 | ||||||||
| Female | 354 (55.0) | 85.8 | 54.9 | 40.2 | |||||
| Male | 290 (45.0) | 87.7 | 57.3 | 43.3 | |||||
| Race | 0.322 | ||||||||
| White | 499 (77.5) | 86.7 | 55.7 | 39.4 | |||||
| Asia-Pacific | 88 (13.7) | 91.8 | 57.7 | 49.5 | |||||
| Other | 57 (8.8) | 78.3 | 56.0 | 47.6 | |||||
| Tumor numbers | <0.001 | ||||||||
| Single | 581 (90.2) | 100.0 | 91.5 | 70.2 | Reference | ||||
| Multiple | 63 (9.8) | 85.2 | 52.0 | 38.5 | 2.059 (1.365–3.107) | 0.001 | |||
| Neoadjuvant therapy | 0.603 | ||||||||
| Yes | 41 (6.4) | 90.2 | 50.6 | 32.5 | |||||
| No | 603 (93.6) | 86.4 | 56.3 | 42.2 | |||||
| TLNC [M (IQR)] | 1 (0–3) | – | – | – | 0.004 | ||||
| Radiotherapy | 0.214 | ||||||||
| Yes | 91 (14.1) | 91.2 | 53.4 | 32.1 | |||||
| No/unknown | 553 (85.9) | 85.9 | 56.4 | 43.3 | |||||
| Chemotherapy | 0.004 | ||||||||
| Yes | 266 (41.3) | 89.8 | 58.6 | 48.3 | |||||
| No/unknown | 378 (58.7) | 84.4 | 52.4 | 32.5 | |||||
| AFP | 0.003 | ||||||||
| Negative | 278 (41.9) | 87.2 | 59.0 | 47.8 | |||||
| Positive | 75 (11.3) | 83.8 | 39.8 | 23.0 | |||||
| Borderline/unknown | 291 (43.8) | 86.5 | 56.9 | 40.8 | |||||
| Fibrosis score | 0.982 | ||||||||
| 0–4 | 98 (14.8) | 90.7 | 57.2 | 37.0 | |||||
| 5–6 | 41 (6.2) | 80.0 | 53.6 | 45.0 | |||||
| Unknown | 505 (76.0) | 86.2 | 55.7 | 42.2 | |||||
| Tumor size (cm) | <0.001 | ||||||||
| ≤2 | 44 (6.8) | 88.3 | 73.0 | 59.3 | Reference | ||||
| 2–5 | 251 (39.0) | 91.9 | 63.8 | 52.3 | 1.215 (0.740–1.994) | 0.441 | |||
| 5–10 | 270 (41.9) | 85.1 | 52.8 | 37.0 | 1.474 (0.877–2.480) | 0.143 | |||
| >10 | 79 (12.3) | 74.4 | 32.3 | 13.2 | 2.468 (1.411–4.317) | 0.002 | |||
| pT stage | <0.001 | ||||||||
| T1a | 168 (26.1) | 94.5 | 76.2 | 63.0 | Reference | ||||
| T1b | 132 (20.5) | 89.7 | 64.8 | 47.0 | 1.154 (0.738–1.802) | 0.530 | |||
| T2 | 174 (27.0) | 85.5 | 50.0 | 38.2 | 1.653 (1.181–2.315) | 0.003 | |||
| T3 | 145 (22.5) | 78.1 | 35.8 | 19.6 | 2.102 (1.407–3.140) | <0.001 | |||
| T4 | 25 (3.9) | 75.3 | 27.1 | 14.5 | 2.035 (1.175–3.525) | 0.011 | |||
| Grade† | <0.001 | ||||||||
| G1 | 72 (11.2) | 94.2 | 77.8 | 61.0 | Reference | ||||
| G2 | 368 (57.1) | 88.6 | 61.4 | 45.6 | 1.089 (0.769–1.542) | 0.632 | |||
| G3–4 | 204 (31.7) | 80.6 | 38.9 | 28.2 | 1.584 (1.093–2.296) | 0.015 | |||
| pN stage | <0.001 | ||||||||
| N0 | 228 (35.4) | 88.1 | 61.5 | 44.9 | Reference | ||||
| N1 | 103 (16.0) | 77.1 | 27.0 | 13.1 | 2.370 (1.786–3.146) | <0.001 | |||
| Nx | 313 (48.6) | 88.5 | 60.9 | 48.4 | 1.029 (0.812–1.304) | 0.813 | |||
†G1, well differentiated; G2, moderately differentiated; G3–4, poorly differentiated/undifferentiated. CSS, cancer-specific survival; HR, hazard ratio; CI, confidence interval; TLNC, total lymph node count; IQR, interquartile range; AFP, alpha fetoprotein.
Figure 1Kaplan-Meier analysis of CSS relative to nodal status. (A) LND versus non-LND in all patients (251 patients in each group after PSM); (B) LNM versus non-LNM in patients with LND (96 patients in each group after PSM); (C) AT versus non-AT in pN0 patients (54 patients in each group after PSM); (D) AT versus non-AT in pN+ patients. CSS, cancer-specific survival; LND, lymph node dissection; LNM, lymph node metastasis; AT, adjuvant therapy (chemotherapy and/or radiotherapy); PSM, propensity score matching.
Figure 2ROC analysis illustrated that the dissection of 4 or more lymph nodes had the highest discriminatory power relative to CSS. ROC, receiver operative characteristic; CSS, cancer-specific survival; TLNC, total lymph node count; AUC, area under the curve.
Analysis for prognostic performances of different nodal staging schemes
| Models | Harrell’s C-index | Bootstrap | AIC | BIC | 1-yr AUC | 3-yr AUC | 5-yr AUC |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Training set (n=248) | |||||||
| pLN classification (0/≥1) | 0.585 (0.549–0.621) | 0.586 | 1615.615 | 1618.739 | 0.567 | 0.611 | 0.620 |
| LNR classification (≤0.15/>0.15) | 0.591 (0.556–0.625) | 0.592 | 1611.020 | 1614.144 | 0.596 | 0.616 | 0.625 |
| LODDS classification (≤–0.85/>–0.85) | 0.584 (0.550–0.619) | 0.586 | 1614.190 | 1617.314 | 0.594 | 0.606 | 0.604 |
| Validation set (n=83) | |||||||
| pLN classification (0/≥1) | 0.666 (0.598–0.733) | 0.666 | 344.943 | 346.814 | 0.671 | 0.770 | 0.738 |
| LNR classification (≤0.15/>0.15) | 0.672 (0.609–0.736) | 0.672 | 338.560 | 340.471 | 0.705 | 0.773 | 0.752 |
| LODDS classification (≤–0.85/>–0.85) | 0.665 (0.600–0.729) | 0.665 | 339.151 | 341.023 | 0.665 | 0.768 | 0.729 |
AIC, Akaike information criterion; BIC, Bayesian information criterion; AUC, area under curve; pLN, number of positive lymph nodes; LNR, positive lymph node ratio; LODDS, log odds of positive lymph nodes.
Figure 3Development, validation, and comparison nomogram. (A) The nomogram to predict CSS developed from the training set; (B-D) Calibration curve analysis nomogram and the current AJCC staging system (8th edition) in the prediction of prognosis at 1-, 3-, and 5-year points for CSS in the training set; (E-G) Calibration curve analysis nomogram and the current AJCC staging system (8th edition) in the prediction of prognosis at 1-, 3-, and 5-year points for CSS in the validation set; (H-J) DCA nomogram and the current AJCC staging system (8th edition) in the prediction of prognosis at 1-, 3-, and 5-year points for CSS in the training set; (K-M) DCA nomogram and the current AJCC staging system (8th edition) in the prediction of prognosis at 1-, 3-, and 5-year points for CSS in the validation set. CSS, cancer-specific survival; DCA, decision curve analysis; AJCC, American Joint Committee on Cancer.
Analysis for prognostic performances of nomogram and the AJCC stage
| Models | Harrell’s C-index | Bootstrap | AIC | BIC | 1-yr AUC | 3-yr AUC | 5-yr AUC |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Training set (n=483) | |||||||
| Nomogram | 0.710 (0.670–0.750) | 0.706 | 3151.144 | 3198.948 | 0.711 | 0.716 | 0.721 |
| AJCC stage | 0.647 (0.614–0.679) | 0.647 | 3178.106 | 3200.167 | 0.651 | 0.675 | 0.689 |
| Validation set (n=161) | |||||||
| Nomogram | 0.743 (0.695–0.790) | 0.743 | 774.810 | 777.353 | 0.738 | 0.764 | 0.792 |
| AJCC stage | 0.690 (0.637–0.742) | 0.689 | 788.051 | 790.595 | 0.706 | 0.725 | 0.777 |
AJCC, American Joint Committee on Cancer; AIC, Akaike information criterion; BIC, Bayesian information criterion; AUC, area under curve.