| Literature DB >> 34729567 |
Miguel I Paredes1,2, Stephanie M Lunn3, Michael Famulare4, Lauren A Frisbie3, Ian Painter3, Roy Burstein4, Pavitra Roychoudhury2,5, Hong Xie5, Shah A Mohamed Bakhash5, Ricardo Perez5, Maria Lukes5, Sean Ellis5, Saraswathi Sathees5, Patrick C Mathias5, Alexander Greninger2,5, Lea M Starita6,7, Chris D Frazar6, Erica Ryke6, Weizhi Zhong7, Luis Gamboa7, Machiko Threlkeld6, Jover Lee2, Evan McDermot7, Melissa Truong7, Deborah A Nickerson6,7, Daniel L Bates8, Matthew E Hartman8,9, Eric Haugen8, Truong N Nguyen8, Joshua D Richards8, Jacob L Rodriguez8, John A Stamatoyannopoulos8, Eric Thorland8, Geoff Melly3, Philip E Dykema3, Drew C MacKellar3, Hannah K Gray3, Avi Singh3, JohnAric M Peterson3, Denny Russell3, Laura Marcela Torres3, Scott Lindquist3, Trevor Bedford1,2,6,10, Krisandra J Allen3, Hanna N Oltean3.
Abstract
BACKGROUND: The COVID-19 pandemic is dominated by variant viruses; the resulting impact on disease severity remains unclear. Using a retrospective cohort study, we assessed the hospitalization risk following infection with seven SARS-CoV-2 variants.Entities:
Year: 2022 PMID: 34729567 PMCID: PMC8562551 DOI: 10.1101/2021.09.29.21264272
Source DB: PubMed Journal: medRxiv
Figure 1:Changing proportion of infections due to variant lineages in Washington over study period.
Variant fraction is calculated from a 21-day rolling average from our full sequenced dataset spanning from December 1, 2020 to January 14, 2022 and normalized to 100% to better observe changes in proportion of infections from variant lineages compared to total infections.
Study Cohort Characteristics by Variant of Concern/Variant of Interest.
| Characteristics | All | Ancestral | Alpha | Beta | Gamma | Delta | Epsilon | Iota | Omicron | ||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
| 58,848 | 5178 | (8.8) | 8729 | (14.8) | 231 | (0.4) | 2103 | (3.6) | 33,115 | (56.2) | 3526 | (6.0) | 638 | (1.1) | 5362 | (9.1) |
|
| 1705 | 117 | (2.3) | 233 | (2.7) | 11 | (4.8) | 112 | (5.3) | 1109 | (3.3) | 74 | (2.1) | 13 | (2.0) | 36 | (0.7) |
|
| 6 | (5) | 6 | (5) | 7.5 | (3.25) | 6 | (4.75) | 6 | (4.75) | 5 | (4) | 3.5 | (4) | 7 | (6) | |
|
| |||||||||||||||||
| 0–9 | 5661 | 418 | (8.1) | 888 | (10.2) | 22 | (9.5) | 198 | (9.4) | 3412 | (10.3) | 307 | (8.7) | 54 | (8.5) | 362 | (6.8) |
| 10 −19 | 8954 | 814 | (15.7) | 1561 | (17.9) | 52 | (22.5) | 272 | (12.9) | 4548 | (13.7) | 590 | (16.7) | 113 | (17.7) | 1004 | (18.7) |
| 20–29 | 12340 | 1053 | (20.3) | 1948 | (22.3) | 51 | (22.1) | 527 | (25.1) | 6485 | (19.6) | 760 | (21.6) | 154 | (24.1) | 1362 | (25.4) |
| 30 – 39 | 11156 | 984 | (19.0) | 1640 | (18.8) | 39 | (16.9) | 432 | (20.5) | 6285 | (19.0) | 657 | (18.6) | 128 | (20.1) | 991 | (18.5) |
| 40 – 49 | 8345 | 741 | (14.3) | 1273 | (14.6) | 34 | (14.7) | 317 | (15.1) | 4583 | (13.8) | 524 | (14.9) | 93 | (14.6) | 780 | (14.5) |
| 50 – 59 | 6012 | 569 | (11.0) | 797 | (9.1) | 22 | (9.5) | 186 | (8.8) | 3529 | (10.7) | 383 | (10.9) | 56 | (8.8) | 470 | (8.8) |
| 60 – 69 | 3807 | 378 | (7.3) | 389 | (4.5) | 9 | (3.9) | 108 | (5.1) | 2429 | (7.3) | 209 | (5.9) | 25 | (3.9) | 260 | (4.8) |
| 70 – 79 | 1704 | 139 | (2.7) | 150 | (1.7) | 2 | (0.9) | 33 | (1.6) | 1223 | (3.7) | 62 | (1.8) | 11 | (1.7) | 84 | (1.6) |
| 80–89 | 681 | 60 | (1.2) | 68 | (0.8) | 0 | (0.0) | 22 | (1.0) | 462 | (1.4) | 31 | (0.9) | 3 | (0.5) | 35 | (0.7) |
| 90+ | 222 | 22 | (0.4) | 15 | (0.2) | 0 | (0.0) | 8 | (0.4) | 159 | (0.5) | 3 | (0.1) | 1 | (0.2) | 14 | (0.3) |
|
| |||||||||||||||||
| Female | 28518 | 2410 | (46.5) | 4234 | (48.5) | 104 | (45.0) | 1026 | (48.8) | 16053 | (48.5) | 1666 | (47.2) | 292 | (45.8) | 2733 | (51.0) |
| Male | 29219 | 2595 | (50.1) | 4328 | (49.6) | 123 | (53.2) | 1040 | (49.5) | 16513 | (49.9) | 1739 | (49.3) | 330 | (51.7) | 2551 | (47.6) |
| Other | 58 | 5 | (0.1) | 9 | (0.1) | 0 | (0.0) | 1 | (0.0) | 36 | (0.1) | 2 | (0.1) | 0 | (0.0) | 5 | (0.1) |
| Unknown | 1087 | 168 | (3.2) | 158 | (1.8) | 4 | (1.7) | 36 | (1.7) | 513 | (1.5) | 119 | (3.4) | 16 | (2.5) | 73 | (1.4) |
|
| |||||||||||||||||
| No Vaccination to <21 post dose one | 44845 | 5100 | (98.5) | 8412 | (96.4) | 221 | (95.7) | 1946 | (92.5) | 23108 | (69.8) | 3438 | (97.5) | 620 | (97.2) | 2000 | (37.3) |
| ≥21 days post dose one to <21 days post booster | 12895 | 75 | (1.4) | 309 | (3.5) | 10 | (4.3) | 154 | (7.3) | 9434 | (28.5) | 86 | (2.4) | 18 | (2.8) | 2809 | (52.4) |
| ≥21 days post dose one | 1142 | 0 | (0.0) | 2 | (0.1) | 0 | (0.0) | 1 | (0.1) | 565 | (1.7) | 2 | (0.1) | 0 | (0.0) | 553 | (10.3) |
denotes row percentages
denotes column percentages
Figure 2:Relative Risk of Hospitalization by Variant Lineage.
Risk of hospitalization is compared to individuals infected with an ancestral lineage. Error bars represent 95% CI. Estimates are adjusted for age, sex assigned at birth, calendar week, and vaccination status.
Adjusted Cox Proportional Hazard Estimates for Risk of Hospitalization
| Characteristics | Hospitalization | |
|---|---|---|
| HR | 95% CI | |
|
| ||
| Ancestral | REF | |
| Alpha | 1.64 | (1.29–2.07) |
| Beta | 2.85 | (1.56–5.23) |
| Gamma | 3.20 | (2.40–4.26) |
| Delta | 2.28 | (1.56–3.34) |
| Epsilon | 1.13 | (0.67–1.90) |
| Iota | 1.34 | (0.80–2.30) |
| Omicron | 0.92 | (0.56–1.52) |
|
| ||
| Unvaccinated to <21 days post dose one | REF | |
| ≥21 days post dose one to <21 days post booster | 0.40 | (0.35–0.45) |
| ≥21 days post booster | 0.31 | (0.19–0.51) |
Additional model covariates include: sex, age (in 10 year bins), calendar week.
Figure 3:HR for risk of hospitalization following infection with a VOC (excluding Beta due to small sample size) stratified by vaccination status.
Unvaccinated individuals infected with ancestral lineages serve as the reference category for each VOC HR. Error bars represent 95% CI. Estimates are adjusted for calendar week, age and sex assigned at birth. Categories with less than 4 hospitalizations are censored.
Adjusted Cox Proportional Hazards Estimates for Risk of Hospitalization for VariantVaccine Interaction
| Hospitalization | ||
|---|---|---|
| Characteristics | HR | 95% CI |
| Vaccine | ||
|
| ||
| Unvaccinated to <21 days post dose one | 1.67 | (0.91–3.07) |
| ≥21 days post dose one to <21 days post booster | 0.78 | (0.42–1.42) |
| ≥21 days post booster | – | – |
|
| ||
| Unvaccinated to <21 days post dose one | 3.24 | (2.15 −4.89) |
| ≥21 days post dose one to <21 days post booster | 1.46 | (0.77–2.78) |
| ≥21 days post booster | — | — |
|
| ||
| Unvaccinated to <21 days post dose one | 2.39 | (1.32–4.32) |
| ≥21 days post dose one to <21 days post booster | 0.93 | (0.71–1.22) |
| ≥21 days post booster | 0.75 | (0.41–1.34) |
|
| ||
| Unvaccinated to <21 days post dose one | 0.79 | (0.37–1.67) |
| ≥21 days post dose one to <21 days post booster | 0.49 | (0.29–0.83) |
| ≥21 days post booster | 0.44 | (0.21–0.93) |
|
| ||
| Unvaccinated to <21 days post dose one | REF | |
Additional model covariates include: sex, age (in 10 year bins), calendar. Each variant lineage category risk estimate uses the “Unvaccinated to <21 days post dose one” vaccination group in cases infected with an ancestral lineage as the reference group. Categories with less than 4 hospitalizations are censored.
Figure 4:Risk of Hospitalization following Infection with Omicron vs Delta.
A. Risk of hospitalization is compared to individuals infected with Delta. B. Unvaccinated individuals infected with Delta serve as the reference category for each VOC HR. Error bars represent 95% CI. Estimates are adjusted for calendar week, age and sex assigned at birth.