| Literature DB >> 34666776 |
Mustapha Immurana1, Micheal Kofi Boachie2, Kwame Godsway Kisseih3.
Abstract
BACKGROUND: As African governments take measures to enhance international trade and Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) inflows, a major concern is that, these measures can make Africa more vulnerable to the strategies of the tobacco industry. This concern is based on the fact that, each year, tobacco use is estimated to be responsible for the deaths of over eight million people in the world. However, there is very little empirical evidence to refute or confirm the above concern, especially in the African context. This study therefore investigates the effects of FDI and trade on the prevalence of tobacco consumption in Africa.Entities:
Keywords: Africa; FDI; Tobacco consumption; Trade
Mesh:
Year: 2021 PMID: 34666776 PMCID: PMC8524922 DOI: 10.1186/s12992-021-00769-2
Source DB: PubMed Journal: Global Health ISSN: 1744-8603 Impact factor: 4.185
Measurements and expected signs of variables
| Variable | Definition/measurement | Source | Expected sign |
|---|---|---|---|
| Prevalence of tobacco consumption | The percentage of people aged 15 years and above who currently use any tobacco product | WB’s WDI | Not applicable |
| FDI | Net inflows of FDI as a percentage of GDP | WB’s WDI | +/− |
| Trade | 1. Imports plus exports as a share of GDP (Trade openness) 2. Imports as a share of GDP | WB’s WDI | +/− |
| Tobacco tax | Total tax on a pack of 20 cigarettes expressed as a percentage of the retail cost (price) of the most popular (mostly sold) brand of cigarettes. This indicator is used because we do not have data on tobacco taxes. In addition, using cigarette tax to proxy tobacco tax is justified because according to the WHO [ | WHO | – |
| Education | Gross primary school enrolment as a ratio of the total population of individuals in the official age category for primary education | WB’s WDI | – |
| Income | Growth rate of per capita GDP | WB’s WDI | +/− |
‘+’ means will increase the prevalence of tobacco consumption; ‘–’ means will decrease the prevalence of tobacco consumption
Fig. 1The relationships between trade, FDI and tobacco consumption in 31 African countries (2010–2018)
Effects of FDI and trade on the prevalence of tobacco consumption (Baseline results)
| (1) | (2) | |
|---|---|---|
| Prevalence of tobacco use | Prevalence of tobacco use | |
| L.Prevalence of tobacco use | 0.966*** | 0.973*** |
| (0.00966) | (0.0129) | |
| Tobacco tax | 0.00310 | 0.00399 |
| (0.00392) | (0.00504) | |
| L.Trade openness | 0.572** | |
| (0.242) | ||
| L.FDI inflows | −0.0168** | −0.0135* |
| (0.00650) | (0.00677) | |
| Income | 0.00102 | 0.00109 |
| (0.0168) | (0.0135) | |
| Education | 0.00173 | 0.00221 |
| (0.00319) | (0.00322) | |
| L.Imports | 0.00405* | |
| (0.00238) | ||
| Constant | −0.378 | −0.368 |
| (0.406) | (0.377) | |
| Observations | 216 | 216 |
| Countries | 31 | 31 |
| Instruments | 22 | 22 |
| AR(2) | 0.937 | 0.425 |
| AR(2) | 0.349 | 0.671 |
| Hansen | 4.188 | 6.919 |
| Hansen | 0.899 | 0.646 |
| F stat | 6871.8 | 8170.2 |
| F stat | 0.000 | 0.000 |
Standard errors in parentheses; * p < 0.1, ** p < 0.05, *** p < 0.01; L. refers to the first lag of the respective variable; Year dummies are not reported for brevity. The null hypotheses of the Hansen and the AR (2) tests state the joint validity of the instruments and the absence of second-order serial correlation respectively [30, 32]
Effects of FDI and trade on the prevalence of tobacco consumption (Robustness checks)
| (1) | (2) | (3) | (4) | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Prevalence of tobacco use | Prevalence of tobacco use | Prevalence of tobacco use | Prevalence of tobacco use | |
| L.Prevalence of tobacco use | 0.975*** | 0.963*** | 0.962*** | 0.994*** |
| (0.0234) | (0.00973) | (0.0195) | (0.0197) | |
| Tobacco tax | 0.00520 | −0.00604* | − 0.00135 | − 0.00909 |
| (0.00561) | (0.00349) | (0.0125) | (0.00845) | |
| L.Trade openness | 0.167* | |||
| (0.0845) | ||||
| Income | 0.00760 | 0.0205* | 0.0425* | −0.00524 |
| (0.00698) | (0.0119) | (0.0212) | (0.0105) | |
| Education | 0.0138*** | 0.0113*** | 0.00298 | −0.0112 |
| (0.00299) | (0.00260) | (0.00826) | (0.00771) | |
| L.Imports | 0.00733** | |||
| (0.00348) | ||||
| L.FDI inflows | −0.00727* | |||
| (0.00393) | ||||
| L.KOF trade globalisation index | 0.0115** | |||
| (0.00442) | ||||
| L.Chinn-Ito index of capital openness | −0.0741* | |||
| (0.0420) | ||||
| Constant | −1.688*** | −1.046*** | −0.0109 | 0.817 |
| (0.204) | (0.247) | (0.723) | (0.720) | |
| Observations | 216 | 216 | 217 | 217 |
| Countries | 31 | 31 | 31 | 31 |
| Instruments | 24 | 27 | 21 | 24 |
| AR(2) | −1.233 | 0.372 | −1.097 | −1.379 |
| AR(2) | 0.218 | 0.710 | 0.273 | 0.168 |
| Hansen | 13.32 | 11.57 | 4.151 | 8.980 |
| Hansen | 0.346 | 0.712 | 0.901 | 0.774 |
| F stat | 15,428.4 | 7834.9 | 2903.3 | 5706.0 |
| F stat | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 |
Standard errors in parentheses; * p < 0.1, ** p < 0.05, *** p < 0.01; L. refers to the first lag of the respective variable; Year dummies are not reported for brevity; The null hypotheses of the Hansen and the AR (2) tests state the joint validity of the instruments and the absence of second-order serial correlation respectively [30, 32]
List of countries
| Algeria | Ethiopia | Mauritius | Seychelles |
| Benin | Gambia, The | Morocco | South Africa |
| Botswana | Ghana | Mozambique | Tanzania |
| Burkina Faso | Kenya | Namibia | Togo |
| Burundi | Lesotho | Niger | Tunisia |
| Congo, Rep. | Liberia | Nigeria | Uganda |
| Cote d’Ivoire | Madagascar | Rwanda | Zimbabwe |
| Egypt, Arab Rep. | Mali | Senegal |
Descriptive Statistics
| Variable | Obs | Mean | Std. Dev. | Min | Max |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Prevalence of tobacco use | 279 | 16.32 | 7.698 | 3.7 | 34 |
| Tobacco tax | 279 | 42.62 | 19.27 | 4.88 | 85.96 |
| Trade openness | 277 | .742 | .361 | .207 | 2.165 |
| Imports | 277 | 43.917 | 22.352 | 10.666 | 117.154 |
| FDI inflows | 279 | 5.636 | 11.918 | −3.374 | 103.337 |
| Income | 279 | 2.203 | 3.347 | −12.442 | 18.066 |
| Education | 242 | 106.754 | 18.324 | 62.708 | 148.23 |
| KOF trade globalisation index | 279 | 46.737 | 14.015 | 24.356 | 84.207 |
| Chinn-Ito index of capital openness | 279 | −.39 | 1.394 | −1.92 | 2.334 |
Matrix of correlations
| Variables | (1) | (2) | (3) | (4) | (5) | (6) | (7) | (8) | (9) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| (1) Prevalence of tobacco consumption | 1.000 | ||||||||
| (2) Tobacco tax | 0.742 | 1.000 | |||||||
| (3) Trade openness | 0.322 | 0.242 | 1.000 | ||||||
| (4) Imports | 0.246 | 0.154 | 0.943 | 1.000 | |||||
| (5) FDI inflows | −0.071 | −0.125 | 0.385 | 0.484 | 1.000 | ||||
| (6) Income | −0.139 | −0.139 | 0.155 | 0.121 | 0.131 | 1.000 | |||
| (7) Education | 0.266 | 0.205 | 0.093 | 0.111 | −0.017 | −0.016 | 1.000 | ||
| (8) KOF trade globalisation index | 0.597 | 0.576 | 0.686 | 0.559 | 0.128 | 0.097 | 0.222 | 1.000 | |
| (9) Chinn-Ito index of capital openness | 0.105 | 0.271 | 0.272 | 0.271 | 0.229 | 0.017 | −0.076 | 0.158 | 1.000 |
Average trade, FDI and prevalence of tobacco use per country (2010–2018)
| Country | Trade openness | Imports | FDI | Prevalence of tobacco consumption |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Algeria | 0.62 | 31.93 | 0.8 | 19.42 |
| Benin | 0.57 | 31.03 | 1.77 | 8.71 |
| Botswana | 1 | 50.9 | 1.56 | 24.97 |
| Burkina Faso | 0.59 | 32.59 | 1.9 | 18.07 |
| Burundi | 0.39 | 30.92 | 1.07 | 14.02 |
| Congo, Rep. | 1.14 | 56.22 | 16.38 | 14.73 |
| Cote d’Ivoire | 0.7 | 32.63 | 1.29 | 14.21 |
| Egypt, Arab Rep. | 0.41 | 24.65 | 1.96 | 21.26 |
| Ethiopia | 0.39 | 28.12 | 3.14 | 5.02 |
| Gambia, The | 0.5 | 31.58 | 1.87 | 15.69 |
| Ghana | 0.75 | 41.8 | 6.5 | 4.16 |
| Kenya | 0.48 | 30.25 | 1.71 | 13.06 |
| Lesotho | 1.37 | 94.49 | 4.11 | 27.77 |
| Liberia | 1.23 | 97.91 | 42.74 | 9.36 |
| Madagascar | 0.59 | 33.36 | 5.29 | 31.31 |
| Mali | 0.6 | 36.33 | 2.81 | 12.14 |
| Mauritius | 1.07 | 59.3 | 3.36 | 28.37 |
| Morocco | 0.82 | 46.69 | 2.64 | 16.34 |
| Mozambique | 0.99 | 66.7 | 25 | 16.69 |
| Namibia | 0.97 | 57.71 | 4.68 | 19.01 |
| Niger | 0.44 | 29.57 | 6.76 | 8.36 |
| Nigeria | 0.34 | 14.51 | 1.17 | 5.22 |
| Rwanda | 0.45 | 30.58 | 3.11 | 14.56 |
| Senegal | 0.58 | 35.89 | 2.23 | 10.07 |
| Seychelles | 1.9 | 100.66 | 15.36 | 21.96 |
| South Africa | 0.61 | 30.43 | 1.15 | 32.57 |
| Tanzania | 0.45 | 26.41 | 3.29 | 15.07 |
| Togo | 0.94 | 55.54 | 3.85 | 8.36 |
| Tunisia | 1.01 | 55.6 | 2.24 | 28.57 |
| Uganda | 0.38 | 23.68 | 3 | 12.17 |
| Zimbabwe | 0.63 | 39.76 | 1.97 | 14.74 |