Li-Ming Ho1, Christian Schafferer2, Jie-Min Lee3, Chun-Yuan Yeh2, Chi-Jung Hsieh4. 1. Department of Marine Leisure Management, National Kaohsiung Marine University, Kaohsiung, Taiwan. 2. Department of International Trade, Overseas Chinese University, Taichung, Taiwan. 3. Department of Shipping and Transportation Management, National Kaohsiung Marine University, Kaohsiung, Taiwan. jmlee866@yahoo.com.tw. 4. Department of Finance, National Changhua University of Education, Changhua, Taiwan.
Abstract
OBJECTIVES: This study investigates the effects of price hikes on cigarette consumption, tobacco tax revenues, and reduction in smoking-caused mortality in 36 African countries. METHODS: Using panel data from the 1999-2013 Euromonitor International, the World Bank and the World Health Organization, we applied fixed-effects and random-effects regression models of panel data to estimate the elasticity of cigarette prices and simulate the effect of price fluctuations. RESULTS: Cigarette price elasticity was the highest for low-income countries and considerably lower for other African economies. The administered simulation shows that with an average annual cigarette price increase of 7.38%, the average annual cigarette consumption would decrease by 3.84%, and the average annual tobacco tax revenue would increase by 19.39%. By 2050, the number of averted smoking-attributable deaths (SADs) will be the highest in South Africa, followed by the Democratic Republic of Congo, Madagascar, and Ethiopia. CONCLUSIONS: Excise tax increases have a significant effect on the reduction of smoking prevalence and the number of averted smoking-attributable deaths, Low-income countries are most affected by high taxation policies.
OBJECTIVES: This study investigates the effects of price hikes on cigarette consumption, tobacco tax revenues, and reduction in smoking-caused mortality in 36 African countries. METHODS: Using panel data from the 1999-2013 Euromonitor International, the World Bank and the World Health Organization, we applied fixed-effects and random-effects regression models of panel data to estimate the elasticity of cigarette prices and simulate the effect of price fluctuations. RESULTS: Cigarette price elasticity was the highest for low-income countries and considerably lower for other African economies. The administered simulation shows that with an average annual cigarette price increase of 7.38%, the average annual cigarette consumption would decrease by 3.84%, and the average annual tobacco tax revenue would increase by 19.39%. By 2050, the number of averted smoking-attributable deaths (SADs) will be the highest in South Africa, followed by the Democratic Republic of Congo, Madagascar, and Ethiopia. CONCLUSIONS: Excise tax increases have a significant effect on the reduction of smoking prevalence and the number of averted smoking-attributable deaths, Low-income countries are most affected by high taxation policies.
Authors: Chengetai Dare; Micheal Kofi Boachie; Ernest Ngeh Tingum; S M Abdullah; Corné van Walbeek Journal: BMJ Open Date: 2021-12-17 Impact factor: 2.692