Predicting Progression Patterns of Type 2 Diabetes using Multi-sensor Measurements.

Type 2 diabetes - a prevalent chronic disease worldwide - increases risk for serious health consequences including heart and kidney disease. Forecasting diabetes progression can inform disease management strategies, thereby potentially reducing the likelihood or severity of its consequences. We use continuous glucose monitoring and actigraphy data from 54 individuals with Type 2 diabetes to predict their future hemoglobin A1c, HDL cholesterol, LDL cholesterol, and triglyceride levels one year later. We use a combination of convolutional and recurrent neural networks to develop a deep neural network architecture that can learn the dynamic patterns in different sensors' data and combine those patterns with additional demographic and lab data. To further demonstrate the generalizability of our models, we also evaluate their performance using an independent public dataset of individuals with Type 1 diabetes. In addition to diabetes, our approach could be useful for other serious and chronic physical illness, where dynamic (e.g., from multiple sensors) and static (e.g., demographic) data are used for creating predictive models.