| Literature DB >> 34414679 |
Yongshun Zheng1, Xun Zhang1, Jinsen Lu2, Shuchen Liu1, Yeben Qian1.
Abstract
BACKGROUND: The effect of socioeconomic status (SES) on hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) is still unclear, and there is no nomogram integrated SES and clinicopathological factors to predict the prognosis of HCC. This research aims to confirm the effects of SES on predicting patients' survival and to establish a nomogram to predict the prognosis of HCC.Entities:
Keywords: SEER program; hepatocellular carcinoma; nomograms; socioeconomic factors
Mesh:
Year: 2021 PMID: 34414679 PMCID: PMC8525159 DOI: 10.1002/cam4.4223
Source DB: PubMed Journal: Cancer Med ISSN: 2045-7634 Impact factor: 4.452
FIGURE 1X‐tile analysis. (A–R) The best cut‐off points of age at diagnosis, income, COLI, education level, and poverty rate were defined via the X‐tile program. (A, D, G, J, M, P) The black dot indicates that optimal cutoff values have been identified. (B, E, H, K, N, Q) A histogram and (C, F, I, L, O, R) Kaplan–Meier were constructed based on the cut‐off points. COLI, cost‐of‐living index
Multivariate Cox analysis of the training set on CSS and OS
| Variables | Patient no. (%) | CSS | OS |
|---|---|---|---|
| HR (95% CI) | HR (95% CI) | ||
| Age (years) | |||
| ≤66 | 1579 (67.0) | Reference | Reference |
| 67–76 | 4797 (20.4) | 1.17 (1.12–1.22) | 1.15 (1.11–1.20) |
| ≥77 | 2977 (12.6) | 1.30 (1.24–1.37) | 1.34 (1.28–1.40) |
| Race | |||
| White | 16,389 (69.5) | Reference | Reference |
| Black | 3305 (14.0) | 0.95 (0.91–1.00) | 0.98 (0.93–1.02) |
| Other | 3876 (16.5) | 0.87 (0.83–0.92) | 0.85 (0.82–0.89) |
| Sex | |||
| Male | 18,311 (77.7) | Reference | Reference |
| Female | 5259 (22.3) | 0.92 (0.88–0.96) | 0.91 (0.87–0.94) |
| Primary tumor number | |||
| 1 | 22,781 (96.7) | Reference | Reference |
| ≥2 | 789 (3.3) | 0.48 (0.43–0.54) | 0.67 (0.61–0.74) |
| Tumor size (mm) | |||
| ≤45 | 10,303 (43.7) | Reference | Reference |
| 46–85 | 5182 (22.0) | 1.55 (1.47–1.63) | 1.44 (1.37–1.50) |
| ≥86/unknown | 8085 (34.3) | 2.14 (2.03–2.25) | 1.94 (1.85–2.04) |
| Fibrosis score | |||
| 0–4 | 1087 (4.6) | Reference | Reference |
| 5–6 | 5575 (23.7) | 1.16 (1.06–1.28) | 1.21 (1.11–1.33) |
| Unknown | 16,908 (71.7) | 1.28 (1.17–1.40) | 1.32(1.21–1.43) |
| AFP | |||
| Positive | 13,435 (57.0) | Reference | Reference |
| Negative | 4711 (20.0) | 0.62 (0.59–0.65) | 0.66 (0.63–0.69) |
| Bordline | 37 (0.2) | 0.92 (0.60–1.41) | 0.87 (0.58–1.31) |
| Unknown | 5387 (22.8) | 0.78 (0.74–0.81) | 0.79 (0.76–0.82) |
| T | |||
| 0/1 | 9396 (39.9) | Reference | Reference |
| 2 | 4725 (20.0) | 1.39 (1.32–1.46) | 1.29 (1.23–1.35) |
| 3 | 5341 (22.7) | 1.72 (1.64–1.81) | 1.60 (1.53–1.68) |
| 4 | 855 (3.6) | 1.96 (1.80–2.13) | 1.80 (1.66–1.95) |
| X | 3253 (13.8) | 1.32 (1.24–1.42) | 1.27 (1.19–1.35) |
| N | |||
| 0 | 18,909 (80.2) | Reference | Reference |
| 1 | 1642 (7.0) | 1.27 (1.20–1.35) | 1.26 (1.19–1.33) |
| X | 3019 (12.8) | 1.15 (1.07–1.23) | 1.14 (1.07–1.22) |
| M | |||
| 0 | 20,334 (86.3) | Reference | Reference |
| 1 | 3236 (13.7) | 1.62 (1.52–1.73) | 1.57 (1.48–1.67) |
| Metastasis to brain | |||
| Yes | 75 (0.3) | Reference | Reference |
| No | 21,792 (92.5) | 0.90 (0.70–1.15) | 0.91 (0.72–1.15) |
| Unknown | 1703 (7.2) | 0.93 (0.68–1.23) | 0.92 (0.67–1.25) |
| Metastasis to lung | |||
| Yes | 1299 (5.5) | Reference | Reference |
| No | 20,533 (87.1) | 0.74 (0.69–0.80) | 0.75 (0.70–0.81) |
| Unknown | 1738 (7.4) | 0.93 (0.78–1.10) | 0.91 (0.77–1.08) |
| Metastasis to bone | |||
| Yes | 955 (4.1) | Reference | Reference |
| No | 20,928 (88.8) | 0.94 (0.86–1.02) | 0.97 (0.89–1.05) |
| Unknown | 1687 (7.1) | 0.84 (0.68–1.04) | 0.88 (0.72–1.08) |
| Node | |||
| No | 21,043 (89.3) | Reference | Reference |
| Yes | 827 (3.5) | 0.86 (0.73–1.01) | 0.85 (0.73–0.98) |
| Unknown | 1700 (7.2) | 0.74 (0.68–0.81) | 0.76 (0.70–0.83) |
| Surgery | |||
| Yes | 5301 (22.5) | Reference | Reference |
| No/unknown | 18,269 (77.5) | 3.57 (3.37–3.78) | 3.40 (3.23–3.58) |
| Surgery_lymph | |||
| Yes | 659 (2.8) | Reference | Reference |
| No/unknown | 22,911 (97.2) | 1.34 (1.09–1.65) | 1.29 (1.06–1.55) |
| Chemotherapy | |||
| Yes | 9744 (41.3) | Reference | Reference |
| No/unknown | 13,826 (58.7) | 1.92 (1.85–1.99) | 1.95 (1.88–2.01) |
| Cost‐of‐living index | |||
| ≤0.882 | 4822 (20.4) | Reference | Reference |
| 0.885–1.167 | 12,652 (53.7) | 0.86 (0.82–0.91) | 0.87 (0.83–0.92) |
| ≥1.169 | 6096 (25.9) | 0.78 (0.74–0.85) | 0.80 (0.75–0.86) |
| Income ($) | |||
| 22,500–60,380 | 4896 (20.8) | Reference | Reference |
| 60,460–82,200 | 11,526 (48.9) | 0.99 (0.94–1.05) | 0.98 (0.94–1.03) |
| 82,940–132,070 | 7148 (30.3) | 1.01 (0.94–1.09) | 1.02 (0.95–1.09) |
| Insurance | |||
| Medicaid | 5890 (25.0) | Reference | Reference |
| Private insured | 15,835 (67.2) | 0.93 (0.89–0.96) | 0.89 (0.86–0.93) |
| No/unknown | 1845 (7.8) | 1.22 (1.14–1.30) | 1.16 (1.09–1.23) |
| Marital | |||
| Married/domestic partner | 11,359 (48.2) | Reference | Reference |
| Other | 5507 (23.4) | 1.12 (1.07–1.16) | 1.12 (1.08–1.17) |
| Single | 5372 (22.8) | 1.07 (1.03–1.12) | 1.10 (1.06–1.15) |
| Unknown | 1332 (5.6) | 0.89 (0.82–0.96) | 0.90 (0.84–0.96) |
| Residence | |||
| Metropolitan | 21,255 (90.2) | Reference | Reference |
| Non‐metropolitan | 2315 (9.8) | 0.99 (0.93–1.05) | 0.99 (0.93–1.04) |
| Poverty rate | |||
| 8.9%–11.6% | 6897 (29.3) | Reference | Reference |
| 11.8%–14.2% | 11,798 (50.1) | 1.00 (0.93–1.07) | 1.00 (0.94–1.07) |
| 16.3%–21.6% | 4875 (20.6) | 1.12 (1.03–1.21) | 1.11 (1.04–1.20) |
| Education level | |||
| 78.7%–86.7% | 14,464 (61.4) | Reference | Reference |
| 88.5%–94.6% | 9106 (38.6) | 0.98 (0.92–1.05) | 0.98 (0.93–1.05) |
Fibrosis score: AJCC classifies fibrosis scores 0–4: none to moderate fibrosis; 5–6: severe fibrosis or cirrhosis. Fibrosis score is also called Ishak score.
Node: lymph nodes removed for examination to derive the staging basis for the N category in the TNM system.
Surgery_lymph: surgery for regional lymph node.
Education level represents the percentage of patients aged ≥25 years with at least a high school diploma. The education level and poverty rate were determined at the county‐level.
Abbreviations: AFP, alpha fetoprotein; AJCC, American Joint Committee on Cancer;CI, confidence interval; CSS, cause‐specific survival; HR, hazard ratio; OS, overall survival; T, N, M, TNM staging system (T, tumor, N, node, M, metastasis).
p < 0.05.
p < 0.01.
p < 0.001.
FIGURE 2Nomograms for predicting the 1‐, 3‐, and 5‐year survival of HCC patients. (A) Nomogram based on CSS. (B) Nomogram based on OS. CSS, cancer‐specific survival; HCC, hepatocellular carcinoma; OS, overall survival
FIGURE 3ROC and calibration curves. (A, B) show the ROC curves of the training set of 1‐, 3‐ and 5‐year survival based on CSS and OS, respectively. (C, D) show the ROC curves of the validation set of 1‐, 3‐ and 5‐year survival based on CSS and OS, respectively. (E, F) show the calibration curves of the training set of 1‐, 3‐ and 5‐year survival based on CSS and OS, respectively. (G, H) show the calibration curves of the validation set of 1‐, 3‐ and 5‐year survival based on CSS and OS, respectively. CSS, cancer‐specific survival; OS, overall survival; ROC, receiver operating characteristic curve
IDI and NRI of the nomograms on CSS and OS
| Survival time | Items | Training set | Validation set | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Est (95% CI) | Est (95% CI) | |||
| CSS | 1‐year | IDI | 0.18 (0.17–0.18) | 0.17 (0.16–0.19) |
| NRI | 0.47 (0.45–0.49) | 0.47 (0.45–0.50) | ||
| 3‐year | IDI | 0.20 (0.19–0.21) | 0.19 (0.18–0.21) | |
| NRI | 0.48 (0.47–0.50) | 0.48 (0.45–0.51) | ||
| 5‐year | IDI | 0.23 (0.22–0.25) | 0.21 (0.19–0.24) | |
| NRI | 0.51 (0.49–0.54) | 0.48(0.44–0.53) | ||
| OS | 1‐year | IDI | 0.18 (0.17–0.18) | 0.18 (0.16–0.19) |
| NRI | 0.46 (0.44–0.47) | 0.46 (0.44–0.48) | ||
| 3‐year | IDI | 0.20 (0.19–0.21) | 0.19 (0.18–0.21) | |
| NRI | 0.47 (0.45–0.49) | 0.46 (0.43–0.50) | ||
| 5‐year | IDI | 0.22 (0.21–0.24) | 0.21 (0.18–0.23) | |
| NRI | 0.49 (0.45–0.52) | 0.46 (0.33–0.51) |
Abbreviations: CI: confidence interval; CSS, cause‐specific survival; Est, Empower Stat; IDI, integrated discrimination improvement index; NRI, category‐less net reclassification index; OS, overall survival.
p < 0.001.