| Literature DB >> 34397846 |
Dongrul Shin1, Chang Wook Jeong2, Cheryn Song3, Minyong Kang4, Seong Il Seo4, Jung Kwon Kim5, Hakmin Lee5, Jinsoo Chung6, Sung-Hoo Hong7, Eu Chang Hwang8, Cheol Kwak2, Jae Young Park9.
Abstract
ABSTRACT: To develop a new prognostic model for the overall survival of patients with clear cell metastatic renal cell carcinoma (mRCC) using Korean Renal Cancer Study Group (KRoCS) database and compared it with 2 renowned prognostic models: the Memorial Sloan Kettering Cancer Center (MSKCC) and the international metastatic renal cell carcinoma database consortium (IMDC) models.Data of 790 patients diagnosed with mRCC and receiving targeted therapy as their first-line treatment were pooled to this study. Data from 4 hospitals (n = 619) were used to develop the new model and those from other 5 hospitals (n = 171) were used for external validation. After detecting prognostic factors in multivariable Cox proportional-hazards regression analysis, patients were classified into 3 risk groups, favorable (0), intermediate (1-2), and poor (3 and more) by the number of prognostic factors.Seven variables such as more than 2 metastasis sites, no prior nephrectomy, Eastern Cooperative Oncology Group performance status ≥2, low hemoglobin, high serum corrected calcium, high neutrophil, high serum alkaline phosphatase were identified as prognostic factors for poor overall survival. Also, risk groups were categorized into 3 groups; median overall survival was 61.1 months in favorable, 26.5 months in intermediate, and 6.8 months in poor group. KRoCS ranked the first in all 3 statistical parameters including akaike information criterion (AIC), concordance index and generalized R2 among other prognostic models.We developed the KRoCS model and validated it externally with demonstrating its superiority over MSKCC and IMDC models. The KRoCS model can provide useful information for counseling patients with clear cell mRCC regarding life-expectancy.Entities:
Mesh:
Year: 2021 PMID: 34397846 PMCID: PMC8341338 DOI: 10.1097/MD.0000000000026826
Source DB: PubMed Journal: Medicine (Baltimore) ISSN: 0025-7974 Impact factor: 1.817
Baseline characteristics of patients with clear cell metastatic renal cell carcinoma from Korean Renal Cancer Study Group (KRoCS) database and univariable analysis for overall survival.
| Model cohort (N = 619 cases) | External validation cohort (N = 171 cases) | ||||
| Variable | Mean (SD) | No (%) | Mean (SD) | No (%) | Univariable Analysis ( |
| Age at mRCC diagnosis (yr) | 59.2 (11.4) | 58.0 (11.5) | |||
| Age at first line treatment (years) | 59.5 (11.4) | 58.4 (11.6) | .529 | ||
| Age ≥60 | 311 (50.2) | 87 (50.9) | |||
| Age <60 | 308 (49.8) | 84 (49.1) | |||
| Overall survival | |||||
| Median | 21.6 | 30.8 | |||
| Interquartile range | 19.1–26.6 | 22.1–40.6 | |||
| Gender | .292 | ||||
| Male | 485 (78.4) | 134 (78.4) | |||
| Female | 134 (21.6) | 37 (21.6) | |||
| Metastasis | <.001 | ||||
| Synchronous | 389 (62.8) | 103 (60.2) | |||
| Metachronous | 230 (37.2) | 68 (39.8) | |||
| Site of metastatic disease | |||||
| Lung | 441 (71.2) | 127 (74) | |||
| Lymph node | 233 (37.6) | 79 (46.2) | |||
| Bone | 185 (29.9) | 50 (29.2) | |||
| Liver | 81 (13.1) | 32 (18.7) | |||
| Brain | 50 (8.0) | 14 (8.2) | |||
| Others | 148 (23.9) | 46 (26.9) | |||
| Number of metastasis sites | <.001 | ||||
| <2 | 277 (44.7) | 61 (36.0) | |||
| ≥2 | 342 (55.3) | 110 (64.0) | |||
| ECOG performance status | <.001 | ||||
| <2 | 588 (95.0) | 151 (88.3) | |||
| ≥2 | 31 (5.0) | 20 (11.7) | |||
| Prior Nephrectomy | <.001 | ||||
| Yes | 524 (84.7) | 136 (79.5) | |||
| No | 95 (15.3) | 35 (20.5) | |||
| Treatment | |||||
| Sunitinib | 315 (50.9) | 104 (60.8) | |||
| Sorafenib | 65 (10.5) | 15 (8.8) | |||
| Pazopanib | 195 (31.5) | 29 (17.0) | |||
| Axitinib | 0 (0) | 1 (0.6) | |||
| Bevacizumab | 9 (1.5) | 1 (0.6) | |||
| Everolimus | 15 (0.6) | 2 (1.2) | |||
| Temsirolimus | 31 (5.0) | 19 (11.1) | |||
| Hb (g/L) < LLN | 12.7 (2.3) | 300 (48.5) | 13.0 (2.0) | 69 (40.4) | <.001 |
| ALP (U/L) > ULN | 118.5 (104.2) | 217 (35.0) | 114.2 (100.5) | 55 (32.0) | <.001 |
| Platelet (×103/μL) > ULN | 227.0 (110.0) | 43 (7.0) | 196.2 (93.3) | 3 (1.8) | <.001 |
| Neutrophil (/μL) > ULN | 4092.5 (3084.6) | 58 (9.4) | 3775 (1865.9) | 8 (4.7) | <.001 |
| LDH (U/L) > ULN | 322.3 (222.5) | 113 (18.3) | 288.9 (164.7) | 51 (29.8) | .294 |
| Albumin (g/dL) | 4.0 (0.6) | 3.8 (0.5) | <.001 | ||
| Corrected Ca (mg/dL) > ULN | 9.1 (0.7) | 38 (6.1) | 9.0 (0.6) | 9 (5.3) | <.001 |
Result of multivariable Cox proportional-hazard regression analysis in model developing cohort and external validation cohort.
| Model developing cohort (n = 619) | External validation cohort (n = 171) | |||
| Hazard ratio (95% CI) | Hazard ratio (95% CI) | |||
| No prior nephrectomy | 1.9 (1.5–2.5) | <.01 | 2.2 (1.4–3.5) | <.01 |
| ECOG performance status ≥2 | 1.7 (1.1–2.6) | .01 | 1.1 (0.6–1.9) | .82 |
| Metastasis sites ≥2 | 1.8 (1.5–2.3) | <.01 | 1.9 (1.2–3.1) | <.01 |
| Low hemoglobin | 1.7 (1.4–2.2) | <.01 | 1.5 (1.0–2.2) | .06 |
| High serum corrected calcium | 1.8 (1.2–2.8) | <.01 | 1.4 (0.6–3.2) | .48 |
| High serum alkaline phosphatase | 1.6 (1.3–2.0) | <.01 | 1.8 (1.2–2.8) | <.01 |
| High neutrophil | 1.8 (1.3–2.4) | <.01 | 1.7 (0.7–4.0) | .25 |
Figure 1Kapan–Meier curve of stratified risk groups by KRoCS model in model developing cohort.
Selected risk factors and median overall survival in metastatic renal cell carcinoma survival predicting models.
| Model | KRoCS | MSKCC[ | IMDC[ | |||||
| Patient cohort | Model-developing (n = 619) | External validation (n = 171) | External validation (n = 171) | External validation (n = 171) | ||||
| ECOG performance status | ||||||||
| Low hemoglobin | ||||||||
| High serum corrected calcium | ||||||||
| High neutrophil | ||||||||
| High serum platelet | ||||||||
| High serum alkaline phosphatase | ||||||||
| High serum lactate dehydrogenase | ||||||||
| No prior nephrectomy | ||||||||
| Time from diagnosis to treatment <1 year | ||||||||
| Metastasis sites ≥2 | ||||||||
| Number | Median OS (months) (IQR) | Number | Median OS (months) (IQR) | Number | Median OS (months) (IQR) | Number | Median OS (months) (IQR) | |
| Favorable (0 risk factors) | 102 (17%) | 61.1 (31.1–NA) | 29 (17%) | 51.6 (20.6–NA) | 58 (34%) | 47.1 (20.6–NA) | 7 (4%) | NA |
| Intermediate (1–2 risk factors) | 362 (58%) | 26.5 (12.7–62.2) | 90 (53%) | 35.6 (12.7–64.0) | 94 (56%) | 30.8 (8.9–51.6) | 141 (82%) | 33.8 (11.4–64.0) |
| Poor (≥3 risk factors) | 155 (25%) | 6.7 (3.3–14.2) | 52 (30%) | 9.3 (6.2–40.6) | 19 (10%) | 7.4 (3.9–15.2) | 23 (14%) | 7.2 (3.9–12.5) |
Figure 2Kaplan–Meier curve of stratified risk groups by metastatic renal cell carcinoma prognostic models in external validation cohort (A. KRoCS model, B. MSKCC model, C. IMDC model).
Measures of model fit from metastatic renal cell carcinoma prognostic models.
| External validation cohort | Akaike information criterion | Concordance-index (Standard error) | Generalized R2 |
| KRoCS | 922.4 | 0.69 (0.03) | 0.22 |
| MSKCC | 925.0 | 0.67 (0.03) | 0.19 |
| IMDC | 944.5 | 0.62 (0.03) | 0.11 |