Keita Wagatsuma1, Iain S Koolhof2, Yugo Shobugawa3, Reiko Saito4. 1. Division of International Health (Public Health), Graduate School of Medical and Dental Sciences, Niigata University, 1-757 Asahimachi dori, Chuo-ku, Niigata City, 951-8510, Japan. waga@med.niigata-u.ac.jp. 2. College of Health and Medicine, School of Medicine, University of Tasmania, Hobart, Australia. 3. Department of Active Ageing (donated by Tokamachi city, Niigata, Japan), Graduate School of Medical and Dental Sciences, Niigata University, Niigata, Japan. 4. Division of International Health (Public Health), Graduate School of Medical and Dental Sciences, Niigata University, 1-757 Asahimachi dori, Chuo-ku, Niigata City, 951-8510, Japan.
Abstract
BACKGROUND: Non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs), such as sanitary measures and travel restrictions, aimed at controlling the severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2), may affect the transmission dynamics of human respiratory syncytial virus (HRSV). We aimed to quantify the contribution of the sales of hand hygiene products and the number of international and domestic airline passenger arrivals on HRSV epidemic in Japan. METHODS: The monthly number of HRSV cases per sentinel site (HRSV activity) in 2020 was compared with the average of the corresponding period in the previous 6 years (from January 2014 to December 2020) using a monthly paired t-test. A generalized linear gamma regression model was used to regress the time-series of the monthly HRSV activity against NPI indicators, including sale of hand hygiene products and the number of domestic and international airline passengers, while controlling for meteorological conditions (monthly average temperature and relative humidity) and seasonal variations between years (2014-2020). RESULTS: The average number of monthly HRSV case notifications in 2020 decreased by approximately 85% (p < 0.001) compared to those in the preceding 6 years (2014-2019). For every average ¥1 billion (approximately £680,000/$9,000,000) spent on hand hygiene products during the current month and 1 month before there was a 0.29% (p = 0.003) decrease in HRSV infections. An increase of average 1000 domestic and international airline passenger arrivals during the previous 1-2 months was associated with a 3.8 × 10- 4% (p < 0.001) and 1.2 × 10- 3% (p < 0.001) increase in the monthly number of HRSV infections, respectively. CONCLUSIONS: This study suggests that there is an association between the decrease in the monthly number of HRSV cases and improved hygiene and sanitary measures and travel restrictions for COVID-19 in Japan, indicating that these public health interventions can contribute to the suppression of HRSV activity. These findings may help in public health policy and decision making.
BACKGROUND: Non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs), such as sanitary measures and travel restrictions, aimed at controlling the severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2), may affect the transmission dynamics of human respiratory syncytial virus (HRSV). We aimed to quantify the contribution of the sales of hand hygiene products and the number of international and domestic airline passenger arrivals on HRSV epidemic in Japan. METHODS: The monthly number of HRSV cases per sentinel site (HRSV activity) in 2020 was compared with the average of the corresponding period in the previous 6 years (from January 2014 to December 2020) using a monthly paired t-test. A generalized linear gamma regression model was used to regress the time-series of the monthly HRSV activity against NPI indicators, including sale of hand hygiene products and the number of domestic and international airline passengers, while controlling for meteorological conditions (monthly average temperature and relative humidity) and seasonal variations between years (2014-2020). RESULTS: The average number of monthly HRSV case notifications in 2020 decreased by approximately 85% (p < 0.001) compared to those in the preceding 6 years (2014-2019). For every average ¥1 billion (approximately £680,000/$9,000,000) spent on hand hygiene products during the current month and 1 month before there was a 0.29% (p = 0.003) decrease in HRSV infections. An increase of average 1000 domestic and international airline passenger arrivals during the previous 1-2 months was associated with a 3.8 × 10- 4% (p < 0.001) and 1.2 × 10- 3% (p < 0.001) increase in the monthly number of HRSV infections, respectively. CONCLUSIONS: This study suggests that there is an association between the decrease in the monthly number of HRSV cases and improved hygiene and sanitary measures and travel restrictions for COVID-19 in Japan, indicating that these public health interventions can contribute to the suppression of HRSV activity. These findings may help in public health policy and decision making.
Authors: Seth Flaxman; Swapnil Mishra; Axel Gandy; H Juliette T Unwin; Thomas A Mellan; Helen Coupland; Charles Whittaker; Harrison Zhu; Tresnia Berah; Jeffrey W Eaton; Mélodie Monod; Azra C Ghani; Christl A Donnelly; Steven Riley; Michaela A C Vollmer; Neil M Ferguson; Lucy C Okell; Samir Bhatt Journal: Nature Date: 2020-06-08 Impact factor: 49.962
Authors: Natalie I Mazur; Deborah Higgins; Marta C Nunes; José A Melero; Annefleur C Langedijk; Nicole Horsley; Ursula J Buchholz; Peter J Openshaw; Jason S McLellan; Janet A Englund; Asuncion Mejias; Ruth A Karron; Eric Af Simões; Ivana Knezevic; Octavio Ramilo; Pedro A Piedra; Helen Y Chu; Ann R Falsey; Harish Nair; Leyla Kragten-Tabatabaie; Anne Greenough; Eugenio Baraldi; Nikolaos G Papadopoulos; Johan Vekemans; Fernando P Polack; Mair Powell; Ashish Satav; Edward E Walsh; Renato T Stein; Barney S Graham; Louis J Bont Journal: Lancet Infect Dis Date: 2018-06-18 Impact factor: 25.071
Authors: Rachel E Baker; Sang Woo Park; Wenchang Yang; Gabriel A Vecchi; C Jessica E Metcalf; Bryan T Grenfell Journal: Proc Natl Acad Sci U S A Date: 2020-11-09 Impact factor: 11.205
Authors: Xin Wang; You Li; Maria Deloria-Knoll; Shabir A Madhi; Cheryl Cohen; Asad Ali; Sudha Basnet; Quique Bassat; W Abdullah Brooks; Malinee Chittaganpitch; Marcela Echavarria; Rodrigo A Fasce; Doli Goswami; Siddhivinayak Hirve; Nusrat Homaira; Stephen R C Howie; Karen L Kotloff; Najwa Khuri-Bulos; Anand Krishnan; Marilla G Lucero; Socorro Lupisan; Ainara Mira-Iglesias; David P Moore; Cinta Moraleda; Marta Nunes; Histoshi Oshitani; Betty E Owor; Fernando P Polack; Katherine L O'Brien; Zeba A Rasmussen; Barbara A Rath; Vahid Salimi; J Anthony G Scott; Eric A F Simões; Tor A Strand; Donald M Thea; Florette K Treurnicht; Linda C Vaccari; Lay-Myint Yoshida; Heather J Zar; Harry Campbell; Harish Nair Journal: Lancet Glob Health Date: 2020-11-26 Impact factor: 26.763