Siyuan Xu1, Hui Huang1, Xiaohang Zhang2, Ying Huang1, Bei Guan3, Jiaxin Qian1, Xiaolei Wang1, Shaoyan Liu1, Zhengang Xu1, Jie Liu1. 1. Department of Head and Neck Surgical Oncology, National Cancer Center/National Clinical Research Center for Cancer/Cancer Hospital, Chinese Academy of Medical Sciences and Peking Union Medical College, Beijing, P.R. China. 2. State Grid Information & Telecommunication Group Co., Ltd., Beijing, P.R. China. 3. Cooperative Innovation Center, Institute of Software, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing, P.R. China.
Abstract
Background: The value of serum thyroglobulin/antithyroglobulin (Tg/antithyroglobulin antibody [ATg]) for papillary thyroid carcinoma (PTC) surveillance after lobectomy was investigated. We aimed to examine the association between postlobectomy serum Tg/ATg and PTC structural recurrence and define applicable values for stratification. Methods: PTC patients who underwent lobectomy with adequate serum Tg/ATg data during 2000-2014 were selected. Predictive classifiers of recurrence using random forest were established combining different variables related to serum Tg (ATg-negative patients) or ATg (ATg-positive patients). Cutoff values were determined with receiver operating characteristic curves when applicable. Kaplan-Meier curve and Cox regression were performed to examine the predictive value of elevated Tg/ATg. Results: Of 1451 patients enrolled, 66 (6.3%) and 26 (6.5%) patients in the ATg-negative group (n = 1050) and ATg-positive group (n = 401) developed recurrence. The established classifier of serum Tg (n = 1050) showed a favorable association with recurrence (AUC = 0.81), while serum ATg did not (AUC = 0.72). The optimal cutoff values of the first Tg (FTg, measured 6-12 months after lobectomy) and last Tg (LTg, measured most recently) were 5.3 and 11.0 ng/mL, respectively. Elevated LTg patients had significantly higher recurrence rates than normal LTg patients (23.5% vs. 4.4%, p < 0.05). Patients with elevated FTg had significantly lower recurrence-free survival rates than patients with normal FTg in all ATg-negative patients, low-risk patients, and intermediate- to high-risk patients (according to the American Thyroid Association initial risk stratification) (n = 1050, 583, and 467, all p < 0.05). Multivariate analysis indicated patients with elevated FTg had twice the recurrent risk compared with those with normal FTg (hazard ratio = 2.052). Conclusions: Postlobectomy serum Tg has favorable value for predicting recurrence in PTC patients, and reasonable thresholds could identify patients at higher risk for recurrence during follow-up.
Background: The value of serum thyroglobulin/antithyroglobulin (Tg/antithyroglobulin antibody [ATg]) for papillary thyroid carcinoma (PTC) surveillance after lobectomy was investigated. We aimed to examine the association between postlobectomy serum Tg/ATg and PTC structural recurrence and define applicable values for stratification. Methods: PTC patients who underwent lobectomy with adequate serum Tg/ATg data during 2000-2014 were selected. Predictive classifiers of recurrence using random forest were established combining different variables related to serum Tg (ATg-negative patients) or ATg (ATg-positive patients). Cutoff values were determined with receiver operating characteristic curves when applicable. Kaplan-Meier curve and Cox regression were performed to examine the predictive value of elevated Tg/ATg. Results: Of 1451 patients enrolled, 66 (6.3%) and 26 (6.5%) patients in the ATg-negative group (n = 1050) and ATg-positive group (n = 401) developed recurrence. The established classifier of serum Tg (n = 1050) showed a favorable association with recurrence (AUC = 0.81), while serum ATg did not (AUC = 0.72). The optimal cutoff values of the first Tg (FTg, measured 6-12 months after lobectomy) and last Tg (LTg, measured most recently) were 5.3 and 11.0 ng/mL, respectively. Elevated LTg patients had significantly higher recurrence rates than normal LTg patients (23.5% vs. 4.4%, p < 0.05). Patients with elevated FTg had significantly lower recurrence-free survival rates than patients with normal FTg in all ATg-negative patients, low-risk patients, and intermediate- to high-risk patients (according to the American Thyroid Association initial risk stratification) (n = 1050, 583, and 467, all p < 0.05). Multivariate analysis indicated patients with elevated FTg had twice the recurrent risk compared with those with normal FTg (hazard ratio = 2.052). Conclusions: Postlobectomy serum Tg has favorable value for predicting recurrence in PTC patients, and reasonable thresholds could identify patients at higher risk for recurrence during follow-up.