Hairong He1,2, Tianjie Liu3, Didi Han2, Chengzhuo Li2, Fengshuo Xu2, Jun Lyu2,4, Ye Gao5. 1. Clinical Research Center, The First Affiliated Hospital of Xi'an Jiaotong University, Xi'an, Shaanxi, People's Republic of China. 2. School of Public Health, Xi'an Jiaotong University Health Science Center, Xi'an, Shaanxi, People's Republic of China. 3. Department of Urology, The First Affiliated Hospital of Xi'an Jiaotong University, Xi'an, Shaanxi, People's Republic of China. 4. Department of Clinical Research, The First Affiliated Hospital of Jinan University, Guangzhou, People's Republic of China. 5. Department of Emergency, The First Affiliated Hospital of Xi'an Jiaotong University, 277 West Yanta Road, Xi'an, Shaanxi, 710061, People's Republic of China. xiaogaoego@163.com.
Abstract
BACKGROUND: The aim of this study is to determine the incidence trends of urothelial cancer of the bladder (UCB) and to develop a nomogram for predicting the cancer-specific survival (CSS) of postsurgery UCB at a population-based level based on the SEER database. METHODS: The age-adjusted incidence of UCB diagnosed from 1975 to 2016 was extracted, and its annual percentage change was calculated and joinpoint regression analysis was performed. A nomogram was constructed for predicting the CSS in individual cases based on independent predictors. The predictive performance of the nomogram was evaluated using the consistency index (C-index), net reclassification index (NRI), integrated discrimination improvement (IDI), a calibration plot and the receiver operating characteristics (ROC) curve. RESULTS: The incidence of UCB showed a trend of first increasing and then decreasing from 1975 to 2016. However, the overall incidence increased over that time period. The age at diagnosis, ethnic group, insurance status, marital status, differentiated grade, AJCC stage, regional lymph nodes removed status, chemotherapy status, and tumor size were independent prognostic factors for postsurgery UCB. The nomogram constructed based on these independent factors performed well, with a C-index of 0.823 and a close fit to the calibration curve. Its prediction ability for CSS of postsurgery UCB is better than that of the existing AJCC system, with NRI and IDI values greater than 0 and ROC curves exhibiting good performance for 3, 5, and 8 years of follow-up. CONCLUSIONS: The nomogram constructed in this study might be suitable for clinical use in improving the clinical predictive accuracy of the long-term survival for postsurgery UCB.
BACKGROUND: The aim of this study is to determine the incidence trends of urothelial cancer of the bladder (UCB) and to develop a nomogram for predicting the cancer-specific survival (CSS) of postsurgery UCB at a population-based level based on the SEER database. METHODS: The age-adjusted incidence of UCB diagnosed from 1975 to 2016 was extracted, and its annual percentage change was calculated and joinpoint regression analysis was performed. A nomogram was constructed for predicting the CSS in individual cases based on independent predictors. The predictive performance of the nomogram was evaluated using the consistency index (C-index), net reclassification index (NRI), integrated discrimination improvement (IDI), a calibration plot and the receiver operating characteristics (ROC) curve. RESULTS: The incidence of UCB showed a trend of first increasing and then decreasing from 1975 to 2016. However, the overall incidence increased over that time period. The age at diagnosis, ethnic group, insurance status, marital status, differentiated grade, AJCC stage, regional lymph nodes removed status, chemotherapy status, and tumor size were independent prognostic factors for postsurgery UCB. The nomogram constructed based on these independent factors performed well, with a C-index of 0.823 and a close fit to the calibration curve. Its prediction ability for CSS of postsurgery UCB is better than that of the existing AJCC system, with NRI and IDI values greater than 0 and ROC curves exhibiting good performance for 3, 5, and 8 years of follow-up. CONCLUSIONS: The nomogram constructed in this study might be suitable for clinical use in improving the clinical predictive accuracy of the long-term survival for postsurgery UCB.
Authors: Wolfgang Otto; Bas Wg van Rhijn; Johannes Breyer; Simone Bertz; Markus Eckstein; Roman Mayr; Eva M Lausenmeyer; Stefan Denzinger; Maximilian Burger; Arndt Hartmann Journal: Int J Urol Date: 2018-02-22 Impact factor: 3.369
Authors: Markus Eckstein; Rudolf Jung; Katrin Weigelt; Danijel Sikic; Robert Stöhr; Carol Geppert; Abbas Agaimy; Verena Lieb; Arndt Hartmann; Bernd Wullich; Sven Wach; Helge Taubert Journal: Sci Rep Date: 2018-12-06 Impact factor: 4.379