| Literature DB >> 34296524 |
Anna Meneghelli1, Angelo Cocchi1, Maria Meliante1, Simona Barbera1, Lara Malvini1, Emiliano Monzani2, Antonio Preti1, Mauro Percudani1.
Abstract
BACKGROUND: Ultra-high risk (UHR) people are a heterogeneous group with variable outcomes. This study aimed at (a) estimating trajectories of response to treatment to identify homogeneous subgroups; (b) establishing the impact on these trajectories of known predictors of outcome in UHR subjects.Entities:
Keywords: early intervention; growth mixed model; heterogeneity; psychosis; ultra-high risk
Mesh:
Year: 2021 PMID: 34296524 PMCID: PMC9543341 DOI: 10.1111/eip.13201
Source DB: PubMed Journal: Early Interv Psychiatry ISSN: 1751-7885 Impact factor: 2.721
General characteristics of the sample (n = 125)
| Gender | |
| Males | 88 (70%) |
| Females | 37 (30%) |
| Age (years old) | 22 (3); range: 16–30 |
| 16 to 20 years old | 53 (42%) |
| 21 years old or older | 72 (59%) |
| DUI (months) | 30 (22); range: 1–60 |
| Less than 12 months | 35 (28%) |
| 1 years or more | 70 (56%) |
| The DUI could not be determined | 20 (16%) |
| Past admissions to hospital for psychiatic reasons | |
| Yes | 14 (11%) |
| No | 111 (89%) |
| History of substance use | |
| Yes | 22 (18%) |
| No | 85 (68%) |
| Not enough information | 18 (14%) |
| Family history of psychiatric disorders | |
| Yes | 67 (54%) |
| No | 40 (32%) |
| Not enough information | 18 (14%) |
| Decline in premorbid functioning | |
| Yes | 67 (54%) |
| No | 40 (32%) |
| Not enough information | 18 (14%) |
| Dropout of treatment after 2 years | |
| Yes | 38 (30%) |
| No | 87 (70%) |
| BPRS | |
| Baseline | 44 (12); range: 19–99 |
| At 6 months | 37 (9); range: 21–76 |
| At 12 months | 35 (8); range: 24–76 |
| At 18 months | 33 (8); range: 24–62 |
| At 24 months | 32 (7); range: 24–59 |
Note: All data are reported as mean (SD); range, or counts (percentage).
Results of the conditional growth models
| Variables in the model | Statistics | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Beta |
|
| t |
| Log likelihood (LL) | Conditional | |
| Time | −3.4 | .4 | 498 | −7.4 | <.0001 | LL = ‐2172.4, | 61.2% |
| Gender | −1.4 | 2.4 | 123 | −.6 | .56 | ||
| Time x gender | .8 | .5 | 498 | 1.4 | .13 |
| |
| Time | −2.5 | .4 | 498 | −6.9 | <.0001 | LL = ‐2174.4, | 57.1% |
| Age | 2.6 | 2.2 | 123 | 1.2 | .22 | ||
| Time x age | −.8 | .5 | 498 | −1.7 | .078 |
| |
| Time | −3.7 | .4 | 418 | −8.7 | <.0001 | LL = ‐1809.2, | 58.2% |
| DUI | .05 | 2.4 | 103 | .02 | .98 | ||
| Time x DUI | −.5 | .5 | 418 | 1.0 | .30 |
| |
| Time | −2.9 | .3 | 498 | −1.8 | <.0001 | LL = ‐2172.7, | 6.6% |
| Past admissions to hospital | 8.3 | 3.4 | 123 | 2.4 | .017 | ||
| Time x past admissions | −1.2 | .8 | 498 | −1.5 | .13 |
| |
| Time | −3.3 | .3 | 426 | −12.5 | <.0001 | LL = ‐2322.3, | 57.8% |
| Recreational substance use | −3.6 | 2.7 | 105 | −1.3 | .19 | ||
| Time x substance use | .4 | .6 | 426 | .7 | .47 |
| |
| Time | −3.2 | .4 | 426 | −7.6 | <.0001 | LL = ‐1849.3, | 58.2% |
| Family history | −1.4 | 2.4 | 105 | −.6 | .54 | ||
| Time x family history | .2 | .5 | 426 | .4 | .69 |
| |
| Time | −2.2 | .4 | 426 | −5.1 | <.0001 | LL = ‐1847.9, | 58.3% |
| Premorbid functioning | 4.7 | 2.4 | 105 | 1.9 | .055 | ||
| Time x premorbid functioning | −1.4 | .5 | 426 | −2.5 | .011 |
| |
| Time | −2.9 | .3 | 498 | −9.8 | <.0001 | LL = ‐2176.4, | 57.9% |
| Dropout | −2.2 | 2.3 | 123 | −.9 | .34 | ||
| Time x dropout | .6 | .5 | 498 | 1.0 | .29 |
| |
Fit statistics for 1–6 class latent class growth mixture models
| n. classes | Log‐likelihood | AIC | BIC | SABIC | Entropy | Posterior probabilities above 90% in each class |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | −2138.05 | 4290 | 4309 | 4287 | – | – |
| 2 | −2123.01 | 4268 | 4299 | 4264 | .91 | 73% |
| 3 | −2098.95 | 4227 | 4270 | 4222 | .85 | 61% |
| 4 | −2091.98 | 4221 | 4275 | 4215 | .87 | 74% |
| 5 | −2075.90 | 4197 | 4262 | 4190 | .87 | 88% |
| 6 | −2070.00 | 4194 | 4270 | 4184 | .88 | 89% |
FIGURE 1Treatment response trajectories over 2 years. On the left, raw data for all participants (each with their trajectory) and the estimated three‐classes trajectories (wider lines). On the right, the smoothed trajectories of the three classes with the confidence interval, which is tighter in the larger class and larger in those with limited sample size
Baseline clinical variables across the 4 latent classes
| Class 1* | Class 2 | Class 3 | McFadden | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
|
|
| ||
| Gender | 3.0% | |||
| Males | 70 (69%) | 12 (92%) | 6 (60%) | |
| Females | 32 (31%) | 1 (8%) | 4 (40%) | |
| OR (95% CI) | 1 | 5.4 (.6–44.0) | .7 (.2–2.6) | |
| Fisher's exact test |
|
| ||
| Age (years old) | 2.6% | |||
| 16 to 20 years old | 42 (41%) | 4 (31%) | 7 (70%) | |
| 21 years old or older | 60 (59%) | 9 (69%) | 3 (30%) | |
| OR (95% CI) | 1 | .6 (.2–2.2) | 3.3 (.8–13.6) | |
| Fisher's exact test |
|
| ||
| DUI (months) | .4% | |||
| Less than 12 months | 29 (33%) | 3 (27%) | 3 (43%) | |
| 1 years or more | 58 (67%) | 8 (73%) | 4 (57%) | |
| OR (95% CI) | 1 | .7 (.2–3.0) | 1.5 (.3–7.1) | |
| Fisher's exact test |
|
| ||
| Past admissions to hospital for psychiatric reasons | 3.5% | |||
| Yes | 8 (8%) | 3 (23%) | 3 (30%) | |
| No | 94 (92%) | 10 (77%) | 7 (70%) | |
| OR (95% CI) | 1 | 3.5 (.8–15.4) |
| |
| Fisher's exact test |
|
| ||
| History of recreational substance use | .2% | |||
| Yes | 19 (21%) | 2 (17%) | 1 (17%) | |
| No | 70 (79%) | 10 (83%) | 5 (83%) | |
| OR (95% CI) | 1 | .7 (.1–3.6) | .7 (.1–6.7) | |
| Fisher's exact test |
|
| ||
| Family history of psychiatric disorders | 1.2% | |||
| Yes | 54 (61%) | 8 (67%) | 5 (83%) | |
| No | 35 (39%) | 4 (33%) | 1 (17%) | |
| OR (95% CI) | 1 | 1.3 (.3–4.6) | 3.2 (.3–28.9) | |
| Fisher's exact test |
|
| ||
| Decline in premorbid functioning | 6.4% | |||
| Yes | 54 (61%) | 11 (92%) | 2 (33%) | |
| No | 35 (39%) | 1 (8%) | 4 (67%) | |
| OR (95% CI) | 1 | 7.1 (.9–57.7) | .3 (.05–1.8) | |
| Fisher's exact test |
|
| ||
| Dropout of treatment after 2 years | 1.0 | .3% | ||
| Yes | 30 (29%) | 5 (38%) | 3 (30%) | |
| No | 72 (71%) | 8 (62%) | 7 (70%) | |
| OR (95% CI) | 1 | 1.5 (.4–4.9) | 2.0 (.2–4.2) | |
| Fisher's exact test |
| 3.0 | ||
| Latent Class 1 was used as a reference term. |
Note: Statistically significant results are in bold. * p<0.05.
| BPRS | Time | Affective symptoms | Positive symptoms | Negative symptoms | Activation |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Baseline | 14 (4); range: 5–32 | 10 (4); range: 6–26 | 6 (3); range: 3–18 | 8 (3); range: 6–29 | |
| At 6 months | 11 (4); range: 5–23 | 8 (2); range: 6–21 | 5 (3); range: 3–17 | 7 (2); range: 6–18 | |
| At 12 months | 9 (3); range: 5–21 | 7 (2); range: 6–21 | 5 (3); range: 3–17 | 7 (2); range: 6–17 | |
| At 18 months | 9 (3); range: 5–19 | 7 (2); range: 6–17 | 4 (2); range: 3–10 | 7 (2); range: 6–15 | |
| At 24 months | 9 (3); range: 5–19 | 7 (2); range: 6–16 | 4 (2); range: 3–16 | 7 (2); range: 6–15 |