Sofia Ribeiro1, Audrey Limoges2,3, Guillaume Massé4,5, Kasper L Johansen6, William Colgan2, Kaarina Weckström2,7, Rebecca Jackson2, Eleanor Georgiadis4,8, Naja Mikkelsen2, Antoon Kuijpers2, Jesper Olsen9, Steffen M Olsen10, Martin Nissen11, Thorbjørn J Andersen12, Astrid Strunk13, Sebastian Wetterich14, Jari Syväranta15, Andrew C G Henderson16, Helen Mackay16,17, Sami Taipale18, Erik Jeppesen19,20,21, Nicolaj K Larsen13,22, Xavier Crosta8, Jacques Giraudeau8, Simone Wengrat23, Mark Nuttall24,25, Bjarne Grønnow26, Anders Mosbech6, Thomas A Davidson27. 1. Department of Glaciology and Climate, Geological Survey of Denmark and Greenland, Copenhagen, Denmark. sri@geus.dk. 2. Department of Glaciology and Climate, Geological Survey of Denmark and Greenland, Copenhagen, Denmark. 3. Department of Earth Sciences, University of New Brunswick, Fredericton, NB, Canada. 4. Université Laval, CNRS, UMI 3376 TAKUVIK, Québec City, QC, Canada. 5. Station Marine de Concarneau, CNRS, UMR7159 LOCEAN, Concarneau, France. 6. Department of Bioscience, Arctic Research Center, Aarhus University, Roskilde, Denmark. 7. Ecosystems and Environment Research Programme (ECRU), and Helsinki Institute of Sustainability Science, Helsinki University, Helsinki, Finland. 8. Université de Bordeaux, CNRS, UMR 5805 EPOC, Pessac, France. 9. Aarhus AMS Centre (AARAMS), Department of Physics and Astronomy, Aarhus University, Roskilde, Denmark. 10. Danish Meteorological Institute, Copenhagen, Denmark. 11. Agency for Data Supply and Efficiency, Copenhagen, Denmark. 12. Department of Geosciences and Natural Resource Management, University of Copenhagen, Københav, Denmark. 13. Department of Geoscience, Aarhus University, Aarhus, Denmark. 14. Department of Permafrost Research, Alfred Wegener Institute Helmholtz Center for Polar and Marine Research, Potsdam, Germany. 15. Department of Environmental and Biological Sciences, University of Eastern Finland, Jovensuu, Finland. 16. School of Geography, Politics and Sociology, Newcastle University, Newcastle upon Tyne, UK. 17. Department of Geography, Durham University, Durham, UK. 18. Department of Biological and Environmental Science, Nanoscience center, University of Jyväskylä, Jyväskylä, Finland. 19. Lake Group & Arctic Research Centre, Department of Bioscience, Aarhus University, Roskilde, Silkeborg, Denmark. 20. Department of Biological Sciences and Centre for Ecosystem Research and Implementation, Middle East Technical University, Ankara, Turkey. 21. Sino Danish Centre for education and Research, Beijing, China. 22. Centre for GeoGenetics, Globe Institute, University of Copenhagen, Copenhagen, Denmark. 23. Department of Biology, Limnological Institute, University of Konstanz, Konstanz, Germany. 24. Pinngortitaleriffik/Greenland Institute for Natural Resources, Nuuk, Greenland. 25. University of Alberta, Edmonton, AB, Canada. 26. National Museum of Denmark, Copenhagen, Denmark. 27. Lake Group & Arctic Research Centre, Department of Bioscience, Aarhus University, Roskilde, Silkeborg, Denmark. thd@bios.au.dk.
Abstract
High Arctic ecosystems and Indigenous livelihoods are tightly linked and exposed to climate change, yet assessing their sensitivity requires a long-term perspective. Here, we assess the vulnerability of the North Water polynya, a unique seaice ecosystem that sustains the world's northernmost Inuit communities and several keystone Arctic species. We reconstruct mid-to-late Holocene changes in sea ice, marine primary production, and little auk colony dynamics through multi-proxy analysis of marine and lake sediment cores. Our results suggest a productive ecosystem by 4400-4200 cal yrs b2k coincident with the arrival of the first humans in Greenland. Climate forcing during the late Holocene, leading to periods of polynya instability and marine productivity decline, is strikingly coeval with the human abandonment of Greenland from c. 2200-1200 cal yrs b2k. Our long-term perspective highlights the future decline of the North Water ecosystem, due to climate warming and changing sea-ice conditions, as an important climate change risk.
High Arctic ecosystems and Indigenous livelihoods are n class="Chemical">tightly linked and exposed to climate change, yet assessing their sensitivity requires a long-term perspective. Here, we assess the vulnerability of the North Water polynya, a unique seaice ecosystem that sustains the world's northernmost Inuit communities and several keystone Arctic species. We reconstruct mid-to-late Holocene changes in sea ice, marine primary production, and little auk colony dynamics through multi-proxy analysis of marine and lake sediment cores. Our results suggest a productive ecosystem by 4400-4200 cal yrs b2k coincident with the arrival of the first humans in Greenland. Climate forcing during the late Holocene, leading to periods of polynya instability and marine productivity decline, is strikingly coeval with the human abandonment of Greenland from c. 2200-1200 cal yrs b2k. Our long-term perspective highlights the future decline of the North Water ecosystem, due to climate warming and changing sea-ice conditions, as an important climate change risk.
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