| Literature DB >> 34278281 |
Sarah M Lima1,2, Rebecca D Kehm1, Mary Beth Terry1,2.
Abstract
BACKGROUND: Breast cancer (BC) has been increasing globally, though it is unclear whether the increases are seen across all age groups and regions and whether changes in rates can be primarily attributed to decreasing fertility rates. We investigated age-specific trends in BC incidence and mortality from 1990 to 2017, worldwide and by region, and evaluated whether incidence trends are explained by decreases in fertility.Entities:
Keywords: Breast cancer; Fertility; Global; Incidence rate; Mortality rate
Year: 2021 PMID: 34278281 PMCID: PMC8271114 DOI: 10.1016/j.eclinm.2021.100985
Source DB: PubMed Journal: EClinicalMedicine ISSN: 2589-5370
Descriptive statistics of world regions.
| Region Summary | ||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Region | Countries (n) | Mean Total Fertility Rate | Mean Total Fertility Rate by Decade | Average Age-Standardized Rates | ||||
| 1980–1989 | 1990–1999 | 2000–2007 | Incidence | Mortality | Income classification | |||
| East Asia & Pacific | 27 | 3.4 | 3.9 | 3.3 | 2.8 | 31.0 | 11.7 | Lower-Middle Income |
| Europe & Central Asia | 47 | 2 | 2.3 | 1.9 | 1.7 | 68.2 | 22.1 | High Income |
| Latin America & Caribbean | 33 | 3.2 | 3.7 | 3.1 | 2.6 | 38.8 | 17.4 | Upper-Middle Income |
| Middle East & North Africa | 20 | 4.2 | 5.5 | 4.0 | 3.0 | 32.3 | 15.7 | High Income |
| North America | 2 | 2 | 2.1 | 1.9 | 1.9 | 105.9 | 22.0 | High Income |
| South Asia | 8 | 4.7 | 5.7 | 4.6 | 3.6 | 21.5 | 15.0 | Lower-Middle Income |
| Sub-Saharan Africa | 48 | 5.9 | 6.4 | 5.8 | 5.3 | 24.4 | 18.6 | Low Income |
| Total | 185 | 3.7 | 4.3 | 3.6 | 3.2 | 16.9 | 43.8 | |
Mean Total Fertility Rate is the average fertility rate from 1980–2007, allowing for a 10-year lag, by region.
Age-standardized rates per 100,000, averaged over 1990–2017, by region.
Income classification represents the majority income group per region.
Fig. 1Temporal trends in breast cancer incidence and mortality rates, age-standardized (all ages) and in women under 50 years, by world region.
(A) Age-standardized incidence rates (all ages), by region. (B) Incidence rates for women under 50, by region. (C) Age-standardized mortality rates (all ages), by region. (D) Mortality rates for women under 50, by region.
Annual percent change in breast cancer mortality rates, globally and by region and age group, 1990–2017.
Notes: Annual percent change (APC) and 95% confidence interval (CI) estimated from a linear mixed model with a random intercept and fixed linear time. APCs in italics are not statistically significant. Positive APCs, which indicate increasing mortality over time, are in red (color shading darkens with increasing values); negative APCs, which indicate decreasing mortality over time, are in blue.
Annual percent change in breast cancer incidence rates, globally and by region and age group, 1990–2017, unadjusted and adjusted for country-level fertility rates.
Notes: Annual percent change (APC) and 95% confidence interval (CI) estimated from a linear mixed model with a random intercept and fixed linear time. APCs in italics are not statistically significant. Positive APCs, which indicate increasing incidence over time, are in red (color shading darkens with increasing values); negative APCs, which indicate decreasing incidence mortality over time, are in blue.
Fig. 2Annual percent change in breast cancer incidence compared against absolute breast cancer incidence rate in 2017 and total fertility rate in 2007 for each country, grouped by world region, overall (age-standardized) and in women under 50.
APC = annual percent change. Y-axis: incidence rate (per 100,000) in 2017; X-axis: APC from 1990 to 2017. The three left panels, (A), (B) and (C), show the APC, incidence rates and fertility rates for overall age; the three right panels, (D), (E), and (F), show the APC, incidence rates, and fertility rates for women under 50 years. The top panels, (A) and (D), show APCs of the time-trend, base model and incidence rates; the middle panels, (B) and (E), show APCs from the fertility-adjusted model and incidence rates; and the bottom panels (C) and (F), show APCs from the fertility-adjusted model and total fertility rates.