| Literature DB >> 34227170 |
Blythe J S Adamson1,2, Xinran Ma1, Sandra D Griffith1, Elizabeth M Sweeney1,3, Somnath Sarkar1, Ariel B Bourla1.
Abstract
BACKGROUND: Comparative-effectiveness studies using real-world data (RWD) can be susceptible to surveillance bias. In solid tumor oncology studies, analyses of endpoints such as progression-free survival (PFS) are based on progression events detected by imaging assessments. This study aimed to evaluate the potential bias introduced by differential imaging assessment frequency when using electronic health record (EHR)-derived data to investigate the comparative effectiveness of cancer therapies.Entities:
Keywords: cancer; comparative-effectiveness analysis; imaging assessment timing; measurement bias; progression-free survival (PFS); real-word data (RWD); scan timing; simulation modeling
Mesh:
Year: 2021 PMID: 34227170 PMCID: PMC9290806 DOI: 10.1002/pds.5323
Source DB: PubMed Journal: Pharmacoepidemiol Drug Saf ISSN: 1053-8569 Impact factor: 2.732
FIGURE 1Conceptual diagram of the effect of differential timing in assessments when comparing two treatment groups. Even in theoretical cases where the progression free survival times are the same, more frequent assessments can bias the detection of progression towards shorter times
Characteristics of the real‐world cohort of patients with aNSCLC included in this study, overall and by tertile of scan frequency
| Total | Frequency of imaging assessment tertile | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Low | Medium | High | ||
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| Age at advanced diagnosis, median [IQR] | 67.0 [60.0;74.0] | 69.0 [61.0;75.0] | 67.0 [59.0;74.0] | 66.0 [59.0;73.0] |
| Year of advanced diagnosis | ||||
| <2014 | 686 (22.0%) | 278 (26.9%) | 224 (21.8%) | 184 (17.4%) |
| 2015–2017 | 1999 (64.1%) | 663 (64.1%) | 667 (64.9%) | 669 (63.3%) |
| 2018 | 433 (13.9%) | 93 (9.0%) | 136 (13.2%) | 204 (19.3%) |
| Sex | ||||
| Female | 1607 (51.5%) | 554 (53.6%) | 513 (50.0%) | 540 (51.1%) |
| Male | 1511 (48.5%) | 480 (46.4%) | 514 (50.0%) | 517 (48.9%) |
| Race | ||||
| White | 2257 (72.4%) | 731 (70.7%) | 741 (72.2%) | 785 (74.3%) |
| Black, Afr. Am | 204 (6.5%) | 75 (7.3%) | 61 (5.9%) | 68 (6.4%) |
| Asian | 109 (3.5%) | 54 (5.2%) | 30 (2.9%) | 25 (2.4%) |
| Other | 290 (9.3%) | 96 (9.3%) | 97 (9.4%) | 97 (9.2%) |
| Not reported | 258 (8.3%) | 78 (7.5%) | 98 (9.5%) | 82 (7.8%) |
| Practice type | ||||
| Academic | 95 (3.0%) | 30 (2.9%) | 34 (3.3%) | 31 (2.9%) |
| Community | 3023 (97.0%) | 1004 (97.1%) | 993 (96.7%) | 1026 (97.1%) |
| Smoking history | ||||
| Yes | 2498 (80.1%) | 798 (77.2%) | 824 (80.2%) | 876 (82.9%) |
| No | 609 (19.5%) | 233 (22.5%) | 199 (19.4%) | 177 (16.7%) |
| Unknown/Not doc. | 11 (0.4%) | 3 (0.3%) | 4 (0.4%) | 4 (0.4%) |
| Disease stage | ||||
| Stage I | 262 (8.4%) | 112 (10.8%) | 79 (7.7%) | 71 (6.7%) |
| Stage II | 184 (5.9%) | 72 (7.0%) | 52 (5.1%) | 60 (5.7%) |
| Stage III | 578 (18.5%) | 256 (24.8%) | 183 (17.8%) | 139 (13.2%) |
| Stage IV | 2044 (65.6%) | 573 (55.4%) | 694 (67.6%) | 777 (73.5%) |
| Other | 50 (1.6%) | 21 (2.0%) | 19 (1.9%) | 10 (0.9%) |
| Histology | ||||
| Non‐squamous | 2432 (78.0%) | 811 (78.4%) | 806 (78.5%) | 815 (77.1%) |
| Squamous | 566 (18.2%) | 184 (17.8%) | 181 (17.6%) | 201 (19.0%) |
| NOS | 120 (3.8%) | 39 (3.8%) | 40 (3.9%) | 41 (3.9%) |
| Therapy class in first‐line | ||||
| Platinum‐based | 1150 (36.9%) | 320 (30.9%) | 374 (36.4%) | 456 (43.1%) |
| PD‐1/PD‐L1‐based | 761 (24.4%) | 240 (23.2%) | 239 (23.3%) | 282 (26.7%) |
| Anti‐VEGF‐containing | 602 (19.3%) | 183 (17.7%) | 212 (20.6%) | 207 (19.6%) |
| EGFR TKIs | 423 (13.6%) | 222 (21.5%) | 132 (12.9%) | 69 (6.5%) |
| ALK inhibitors | 95 (3.0%) | 38 (3.7%) | 37 (3.6%) | 20 (1.9%) |
| Single agent chemother. | 63 (2.0%) | 25 (2.4%) | 26 (2.5%) | 12 (1.1%) |
| Other | 24 (0.8%) | 6 (0.6%) | 7 (0.7%) | 11 (1.1%) |
Abbreviations: ALK, anaplastic lymphoma kinase; aNSCLC, advanced non‐small cell lung cancer; EGFR, epidermal growth factor receptor; IQR, interquartile range; NOS, not otherwise specified; PD‐(L)1, programmed death (ligand) 1; TKI, tyrosine kinase inhibitor; VEGF, vascular endothelial growth factor.
Imaging frequency tertile of low, medium, or high corresponds to mean weeks between assessment time points being >11.9, 8.6–11.9, and 3.5–8.5 respectively.
FIGURE 2Descriptive statistics for the frequency of imaging assessments among real‐world patients with aNSCLC on first‐line therapy, both for the length of the interval between assessments and the probability of assessment in pre‐defined observation windows. Dashed vertical lines represent the median. “Other” category includes other minor therapy classes with less than 20 patients
Results from simulation model primary analysis and case study
| Primary simulation | Case study | |
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| Hypothetical base case | RWD versus RWD simulation | |
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| True median PFS (95% CI), months | 4.0 (3.5, 4.5) | 6.0 (5.3, 6.8) |
| Imaging frequency, median weeks between scans | 12.0 | 10.6 |
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| True median PFS (95% CI), months | 5.0 (4.4, 5.7) | 12.0 (10.5, 13.6) |
| Imaging frequency, median weeks between scans | 9.2 | 10.8 |
| True difference in median PFS, months | 1.0 | 6.0 |
| True HR, (95% CI) | 0.80 (0.71, 0.91) | 0.50 (0.44–0.57) |
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| Observed difference in median PFS, months | 0.64 | 6.6 |
| Observed HR, (95% CI) | 0.86 (0.76, 0.97) | 0.51 (0.44–0.57) |
| Bias in HR, mean relative % (95% CI) | −7.0% (−20.6, 5.7) | −1.3% (−14.0, 11.7) |
| Conclusions differ, | 30% | 0 |
Abbreviations: CI, confidence interval; EGFR, epidermal growth factor receptor; HR, hazard ratio; PD‐(L)1, programmed death (ligand) 1; RWD, real‐world data; TKI, tyrosine kinase inhibitor.
EHR‐derived data analysis stratified by treatment class. Note: Each case study and the main analysis simulate 500 patients in each treatment group and 1000 comparative‐effectiveness trials.
Based on the Keynote‐024 study.
In the trials simulations where conclusions differed, the 95% CI of the observed HR crossed 1.0 and the null hypothesis could not be rejected.
FIGURE 3Results from simulated comparative‐effectiveness studies for A, the primary simulation and B, a case study based on real‐world assessment frequencies. Black points represent the observed HR for each study with 95% CI bars in gray, horizontal orange line compared to true HR at yellow line. The 1000 studies are ordered by observed HR along the x‐axis
FIGURE 4Key considerations influencing susceptibility to surveillance bias from differential imaging assessment frequency in comparative‐effectiveness studies, based on one‐way sensitivity analysis results. The one‐way sensitivity analysis calculates results for the upper and lower range of a parameter while holding all other parameters fixed. The horizontal axis dashed line represents the value estimated in the main analysis. HR, hazard ratio; PFS, progression free survival; pp, percentage points of mean relative percent bias in observed versus true hazard ratio