The effect of meteorological variables on salmonellosis incidence in Kermanshah, West of Iran: a generalized linear model with negative binomial approach.

PURPOSE: Salmonella is one of the main causes of gastroenteritis, and its incidence may be affected by meteorological variables. This is the first study about the effect of climatic factors on salmonella incidence in Kermanshah, Iran.
METHODS: Data about salmonellosis cases in Kermanshah were inquired from Center for Communicable Disease Control, at the Ministry of Health and Medical Education of Iran, for the 2008 to 2018 time-frame. Meteorological variables including maximum, minimum and mean of temperature and humidity, sunshine hours and rainfall were inquired for the same time frame. Negative binomial generalized linear models (GLM) were used to assess the effect of meteorological variables on the weekly incidence of salmonellosis.
RESULTS: During the years under study, 569 confirmed cases were registered in Kermanshah province. Study results showed a 3 % increase in salmonellosis incidence, after 1 % increase in minimum humidity in the week before (incidence rate ratio (IRR): 1.03; 95 % confidence interval (CI):1.02-1.05) and also a 4 % increase in incidence for 1 °C increase in mean temperature in the same week (IRR: 1.04; 95 % CI:1.02-1.06).
CONCLUSIONS: Increase in minimum humidity and mean temperature may have a role in increasing the incidence of salmonellosis in Iran. © Springer Nature Switzerland AG 2021.