Predicting treatment costs and life expectancy for end-stage renal disease.

To estimate the cumulative 10-year direct medical costs and life expectancy associated with different methods of treatment for end-stage renal disease, we assessed predictively three treatment transition options. It is predicted that if 1000 patients shift from facility to home dialysis for each of 10 years, life expectancy of the cohort will not be reduced, but there will be a reduction of $241 million in total costs. The same number shifting from facility dialysis to cadaveric transplantation are predicted to have a $279 to $330 million reduction in total costs but a reduction of 7 to 17 per cent in life expectancy. Shifting from home dialysis to transplantation is predicted to reduce total costs by +103 to $142 million, and life expectancy by 10 to 20 per cent. As new program policies for treatment of end-stage renal disease are developed, their effect on both costs and life expectancy needs to be considered.