| Literature DB >> 34063073 |
Yibo Gao1, Hongwei Wang1, Suyan Yi1, Deping Wang2, Chen Ma1, Bo Tan1, Yiming Wei1.
Abstract
Hand, foot, and mouth disease (HFMD) remains a serious health threat to young children. Urumqi is one of the most severely affected cities in northwestern China. This study aims to identify the spatiotemporal distribution characteristics of HFMD, and explore the relationships between driving factors and HFMD in Urumqi, Xinjiang.Entities:
Keywords: driving factors; geographical detector model; hand, foot, and mouth disease; spatiotemporal analysis
Year: 2021 PMID: 34063073 PMCID: PMC8124546 DOI: 10.3390/ijerph18094919
Source DB: PubMed Journal: Int J Environ Res Public Health ISSN: 1660-4601 Impact factor: 3.390
Figure 1Location of Urumqi, China.
Sample data of HFMD.
| Number | National Code of Current Address | Address | Case | Date of Accident | Reporting Unit |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 650100000 | 88.209° E | clinically diagnosed cases | 2014/1/1 | Tianshan District Hospital |
| 2 | 650100001 | 88.119° E | clinically diagnosed cases | 2016/1/1 | Midong District Hospital |
| N | 650100002 | 88.129° E | clinically diagnosed cases | 2018/1/1 | Tianshan District Hospital |
Types of interaction between two variables.
| Graphical Representation | Relationship | Interaction |
|---|---|---|
|
| Nonlinear weakening | |
|
| Min( | Single-factor nonlinear weakening |
|
| Double-factor enhancement | |
|
| Independent | |
|
| Nonlinear enhancement |
Figure 2Spatial distribution of HFMD (Hand, foot, and mouth disease) in Urumqi from 2014 to 2018—(a). 2014, (b). 2016, (c). 2018.
Figure 3High-density HFMD districts in Urumqi from 2014 to 2018—(a1–a4). 2014, (b1–b4). 2016, (c1–c4). 2018.
Figure 4Low-density HFMD districts in Urumqi from 2014 to 2018 ((a1–a4). 2014, (b1–b4). 2016, (c1–c4). 2018).
Number of HFMD cases in Urumqi from 2014 to 2018.
| Year | 2014 | 2015 | 2018 | Average Number of Cases | Average Growth Rate (%) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| District | |||||
| Tianshan | 423 | 846 | 1123 | 797 | 66.37 |
| Shayibuck | 675 | 774 | 883 | 777 | 14.37 |
| Toutunhe | 223 | 327 | 289 | 280 | 17.5 |
| New Urban | 664 | 793 | 1059 | 839 | 26.4 |
| Shuimogou | 292 | 593 | 586 | 490 | 50.95 |
| Midong | 247 | 295 | 435 | 326 | 33.45 |
| Daban | 4 | 33 | 43 | 27 | 377 |
| Urumqi | 25 | 28 | 65 | 39 | 72.07 |
| Sum | 2553 | 3689 | 4483 |
Figure 5Month scale distribution of HFMD cases in Urumqi from 2014 to 2018.
Figure 6Changes in the center of gravity of HFMD from 2014 to 2018.
Detection results of single driving factors.
| Level of Impact ( | Gross Domestic Product (GDP) X1 | Population | Road | Temperature X4 | Precipitation X5 | Wind |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2014 | 0.598 | 0.569 | 0.623 | 0.462 | 0.368 | 0.194 |
| 2016 | 0.451 | 0.552 | 0.449 | 0.495 | 0.414 | 0.151 |
| 2018 | 0.450 | 0.540 | 0.558 | 0.546 | 0.408 | 0.147 |
| Mean Value | 0.500 | 0.554 | 0.544 | 0.501 | 0.397 | 0.164 |
Note: The factor detection results all passed the 1% significance test.
Interaction detector results for 2014.
| Variable | GDP X1 | Population | Road | Temperature X4 | Precipitation X5 | Wind |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| X1 | 0.598 | |||||
| X2 | 0.829 | 0.569 | ||||
| X3 | 0.776 | 0.878 | 0.623 | |||
| X4 | 0.637 | 0.826 | 0.667 | 0.462 | ||
| X5 | 0.677 | 0.825 | 0.665 | 0.577 | 0.368 | |
| X6 | 0.594 | 0.830 | 0.625 | 0.834 | 0.362 | 0.194 |
Interaction detector results for 2016.
| Variable | GDP X1 | Population | Road | Temperature X4 | Precipitation X5 | Wind |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| X1 | 0.451 | |||||
| X2 | 0.849 | 0.552 | ||||
| X3 | 0.580 | 0.881 | 0.449 | |||
| X4 | 0.626 | 0.667 | 0.619 | 0.495 | ||
| X5 | 0.601 | 0.665 | 0.472 | 0.572 | 0.414 | |
| X6 | 0.411 | 0.619 | 0.575 | 0.571 | 0.594 | 0.151 |
Interaction detector results for 2018.
| Variable | GDP X1 | Population | Road | Temperature X4 | Precipitation X5 | Wind |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| X1 | 0.450 | |||||
| X2 | 0.805 | 0.540 | ||||
| X3 | 0.589 | 0.859 | 0.558 | |||
| X4 | 0.634 | 0.818 | 0.669 | 0.546 | ||
| X5 | 0.592 | 0.799 | 0.667 | 0.567 | 0.408 | |
| X6 | 0.612 | 0.609 | 0.573 | 0.624 | 0.577 | 0.147 |
Note: The factor detection results all passed the 1% significance test.
Figure 7Spatial distributions of HFMD under the influence of different driving factors—(a1–a5). 2014, (b1–b5). 2016, (c1–c5). 2018.