| Literature DB >> 29386630 |
Jiao Huang1, Shi Chen1, Yang Wu2, Yeqing Tong2, Lei Wang2, Min Zhu1, Shuhua Hu3, Xuhua Guan2, Sheng Wei4.
Abstract
Hand, foot and mouth disease (HFMD) is a substantial burden throughout Asia, but the effects of temperature pattern on HFMD risk are inconsistent. To quantify the effect of temperature on HFMD incidence, Wuhan was chosen as the study site because of its high temperature variability and high HFMD incidence. Daily series of HFMD counts and meteorological variables during 2010-2015 were obtained. Distributed lag non-linear models were applied to characterize the temperature-HFMD relationship and to assess its variability across different ages, genders, and types of child care. Totally, 80,219 patients of 0-5 years experienced HFMD in 2010-2015 in Wuhan. The cumulative relative risk of HFMD increased linearly with temperature over 7 days (lag0-7), while it presented as an approximately inverted V-shape over 14 days (lag0-14). The cumulative relative risk at lag0-14 peaked at 26.4 °C with value of 2.78 (95%CI: 2.08-3.72) compared with the 5th percentile temperature (1.7 °C). Subgroup analyses revealed that children attended daycare were more vulnerable to temperature variation than those cared for at home. This study suggests that public health actions should take into consideration local weather conditions and demographic characteristics.Entities:
Mesh:
Year: 2018 PMID: 29386630 PMCID: PMC5792432 DOI: 10.1038/s41598-018-20318-z
Source DB: PubMed Journal: Sci Rep ISSN: 2045-2322 Impact factor: 4.379
Distribution of daily data on HFMD cases and meteorological variables in Wuhan, 2010–2015.
| Mean ± SD | Minimum | Q1 | Median | Q3 | Maximum | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
| ||||||
| The entire cases | 36.6 ± 33.4 | 0.0 | 12.0 | 24.0 | 50.5 | 195.0 |
| Male | 22.9 ± 20.9 | 0.0 | 8.0 | 15.0 | 32.0 | 122.0 |
| Female | 13.7 ± 13.0 | 0.0 | 4.0 | 9.0 | 19.0 | 89.0 |
| <1 year old | 5.3 ± 6.0 | 0.0 | 1.0 | 3.0 | 7.0 | 50.0 |
| 1–2 years old | 17.4 ± 14.9 | 0.0 | 6.0 | 12.0 | 25.0 | 82.0 |
| 3–5 years old | 13.9 ± 15.6 | 0.0 | 3.0 | 8.0 | 18.0 | 107.0 |
| Children cared for at home | 21.1 ± 18.4 | 0.0 | 7.0 | 14.0 | 30.0 | 125.0 |
| Children attended daycare | 15.6 ± 17.4 | 0.0 | 4.0 | 9.0 | 21.0 | 120.0 |
|
| ||||||
| Average temperature (°C) | 16.7 ± 9.3 | −2.9 | 8.6 | 17.8 | 24.7 | 33.2 |
| Average press (hpa) | 1012.8 ± 9.7 | 994.5 | 1004.8 | 1013.1 | 1020.0 | 1036.9 |
| Average vaporpress (hpa) | 16.9 ± 9.2 | 1.8 | 8.3 | 15.6 | 25.2 | 37.4 |
| Average wind speed (m/s) | 1.9 ± 1.0 | 0.0 | 1.1 | 1.7 | 2.4 | 7.2 |
| Average humidity (%) | 78.7 ± 10.9 | 28.0 | 73.0 | 80.0 | 86.0 | 100.0 |
Figure 1The relative risks of different average temperature for HFMD cases at different lags. The 5th percentile values of average temperature (1.7 °C) were defined as the reference for calculating relative risk. The temperature 8.6 °C, 17.8 °C, 24.7 °C and 30.8 °C represented the 25th percentile, 50th percentile, 75th percentile and 95th percentile of average temperature, respectively.
Figure 2The cumulative relative risks of average temperature for the entire, gender-specific, age-specific and type of child care-specific HFMD cases over 7 days.
Figure 3The cumulative relative risks of average temperature for the entire, gender-specific, age-specific and type of child care-specific HFMD cases over 14 days.
The cumulative relative risk of different average temperature for HFMD cases in different subgroups.
| Temperature |
| ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8.6 °C | 17.8 °C | 24.7 °C | 30.8 °C | ||
|
| |||||
| The entire cases | 1.28 (1.13, 1.45) | 1.73 (1.44, 2.08) | 2.02 (1.63, 2.50) | 2.32 (1.83, 2.95) | |
| Male | 1.31 (1.14, 1.50) | 1.80 (1.48, 2.19) | 2.14 (1.71, 2.69) | 2.52 (1.95, 3.25) | 0.977 |
| Female | 1.23 (1.06, 1.43) | 1.62 (1.30, 2.02) | 1.81 (1.40, 2.34) | 2.02 (1.51, 2.69) | |
| <1 year old | 1.21 (0.95, 1.53) | 2.30 (1.60, 3.30) | 2.91 (1.94, 4.38) | 3.56 (2.30, 5.52) | 0.150 |
| 1–2 years old | 1.23 (1.08, 1.41) | 1.62 (1.33, 1.96) | 1.81 (1.44, 2.26) | 1.98 (1.54, 2.55) | |
| 3–5 years old | 1.38 (1.16, 1.64) | 1.85 (1.44, 2.38) | 2.34 (1.74, 3.16) | 2.58 (1.83, 3.63) | |
| Children cared | 1.15 (1.01, 1.31) | 1.58 (1.30, 1.93) | 1.76 (1.40, 2.22) | 2.13 (1.66, 2.74) | <0.001 |
| Children attended | 1.47 (1.23, 1.77) | 1.92 (1.48, 2.48) | 2.53 (1.87, 3.42) | 2.52 (1.78, 3.57) | |
|
| |||||
| The entire cases | 1.69 (1.44, 1.97) | 2.25 (1.77, 2.87) | 2.73 (2.06, 3.62) | 2.51 (1.84, 3.42) | |
| Male | 1.69 (1.43, 2.00) | 2.21 (1.70, 2.86) | 2.77 (2.06, 3.74) | 2.52 (1.81, 3.51) | 0.978 |
| Female | 1.67 (1.38, 2.02) | 2.34 (1.75, 3.13) | 2.67 (1.90, 3.74) | 2.50 (1.72, 3.64) | |
| <1 year old | 1.74 (1.29, 2.36) | 3.40 (2.12, 5.45) | 4.02 (2.34, 6.88) | 4.05 (2.28, 7.21) | 0.289 |
| 1–2 years old | 1.59 (1.36, 1.89) | 2.14 (1.66, 2.77) | 2.67 (1.97, 3.57) | 2.51 (1.81, 3.49) | |
| 3–5 years old | 1.76 (1.41, 2.20) | 2.41 (1.72, 3.37) | 3.37 (2.28, 4.98) | 2.66 (1.71, 4.13) | |
| Children cared | 1.58 (1.34, 1.85) | 2.05 (1.58, 2.66) | 2.26 (1.67, 3.05) | 2.36 (1.70, 3.29) | <0.001 |
| Children attended | 1.84 (1.46, 2.32) | 2.54 (1.81, 3.57) | 4.15 (2.80, 6.16) | 2.61 (1.67, 4.08) | |
(The 5th percentile values of average temperature were defined as the reference for calculating relative risk.)
8.6 °C, 17.8 °C, 24.7 °C and 30.8 °C represented the 25th percentile, 50th percentile, 75th percentile and 95th percentile of average temperature, respectively.
*Multivariate Wald test.