Claus Garbe1, Ulrike Keim2, Sara Gandini3, Teresa Amaral4, Alexander Katalinic5, Bernd Hollezcek6, Peter Martus7, Lukas Flatz2, Ulrike Leiter2, David Whiteman8. 1. Center for Dermatooncology, Department of Dermatology, Eberhard Karls University, Tuebingen, Germany. Electronic address: claus.garbe@med.uni-tuebingen.de. 2. Center for Dermatooncology, Department of Dermatology, Eberhard Karls University, Tuebingen, Germany. 3. Department of Experimental Oncology, European Institute of Oncology, IRCCS, Milan, Italy. 4. Center for Dermatooncology, Department of Dermatology, Eberhard Karls University, Tuebingen, Germany; Portuguese Air Force Health Care Direction, Lisbon, Portugal. 5. Institute for Social Medicine and Epidemiology, Luebeck, Germany. 6. Saarland Cancer Registry, Saarbruecken, Germany. 7. Institute for Clinical Epidemiology and Applied Biostatistics, Eberhard Karls University, Tuebingen, Germany. 8. QIMR Berghofer Medical Research Institute, 300 Herston Road, Herston, QLD 4006, Australia; The University of Queensland, School of Public Health, Herston Road, Herston, QLD 4006, Australia.
Abstract
OBJECTIVES: Cutaneous melanoma (CM) and keratinocyte cancer (KC) cause considerable morbidity and mortality. We analysed long-term trends of CM and KC in different white populations. MATERIAL AND METHODS: Age-standardised (European Standard Population 2013) incidence and mortality rates (ASIR, ASMR) of CM were extracted from cancer registries in Denmark, New Zealand and the US SEER-Database. ASIRs of KC were sourced from registries of the German federal states Saarland and Schleswig-Holstein, and from Scotland. Age-period-cohort models were used to project melanoma incidence trends. RESULTS: In Denmark between 1943 and 2016, melanoma ASIR increased from 1.1 to 46.5 in males, and from 1.0 to 48.5 in females, estimated to reach 60.0 and 73.1 in males and females by 2036. Melanoma mortality in Denmark (1951-2016) increased from 1.4 to 6.7 (males) and 1.2 to 3.7 (females). In New Zealand between 1948 and 2016, ASIR increased from 2.7 to 81.0 (males) and from 3.8 to 54.7 (females), slight declines are estimated by 2036 for both genders. Melanoma mortality increased six-fold in New Zealand males between 1950 and 2016; smaller increases were observed in females. We observed three- to four-fold increases in melanoma incidence in US whites, predicted to rise to 56.1 and 36.2 in males and females until 2036. Melanoma mortality also increased among US whites between 1970 and 2017, female melanoma mortality remained stable. Similar trends are shown for KC. CONCLUSIONS: In white populations, incidence of CM and KC significantly increased. CM incidence continues to rise in the short term but is predicted to decline in future.
OBJECTIVES:Cutaneous melanoma (CM) and keratinocyte cancer (KC) cause considerable morbidity and mortality. We analysed long-term trends of CM and KC in different white populations. MATERIAL AND METHODS: Age-standardised (European Standard Population 2013) incidence and mortality rates (ASIR, ASMR) of CM were extracted from cancer registries in Denmark, New Zealand and the US SEER-Database. ASIRs of KC were sourced from registries of the German federal states Saarland and Schleswig-Holstein, and from Scotland. Age-period-cohort models were used to project melanoma incidence trends. RESULTS: In Denmark between 1943 and 2016, melanoma ASIR increased from 1.1 to 46.5 in males, and from 1.0 to 48.5 in females, estimated to reach 60.0 and 73.1 in males and females by 2036. Melanoma mortality in Denmark (1951-2016) increased from 1.4 to 6.7 (males) and 1.2 to 3.7 (females). In New Zealand between 1948 and 2016, ASIR increased from 2.7 to 81.0 (males) and from 3.8 to 54.7 (females), slight declines are estimated by 2036 for both genders. Melanoma mortality increased six-fold in New Zealand males between 1950 and 2016; smaller increases were observed in females. We observed three- to four-fold increases in melanoma incidence in US whites, predicted to rise to 56.1 and 36.2 in males and females until 2036. Melanoma mortality also increased among US whites between 1970 and 2017, female melanoma mortality remained stable. Similar trends are shown for KC. CONCLUSIONS: In white populations, incidence of CM and KC significantly increased. CM incidence continues to rise in the short term but is predicted to decline in future.
Keywords:
Denmark; Germany; Incidence; Keratinocyte cancer; Melanoma; Mortality; New Zealand; Scotland; United States of America; White-skinned population
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