Joy Pader1, Yibing Ruan1, Abbey E Poirier1, Keiko Asakawa2, Chaohui Lu2, Saima Memon3, Anthony Miller3,4, Stephen Walter5, Paul J Villeneuve6, Will D King7, Karena D Volesky8, Leah Smith9, Prithwish De10, Christine M Friedenreich1,11,12, Darren R Brenner13,14,15. 1. Department of Cancer Epidemiology and Prevention Research, Cancer Care Alberta, Alberta Health Services, Holy Cross Centre, Room 513C, Box ACB, 2210-2nd St. SW, Calgary, AB, T2S 3C3, Canada. 2. Statistics Canada, Government of Canada, Ottawa, Ontario, Canada. 3. Canadian Partnership Against Cancer, Toronto, Ontario, Canada. 4. Dalla Lana School of Public Health, University of Toronto, Toronto, Ontario, Canada. 5. Department of Health Research Methods, Evidence, and Impact, McMaster University, Hamilton, Ontario, Canada. 6. School of Mathematics and Statistics, Carleton University, Ottawa, Ontario, Canada. 7. Department of Public Health Sciences, Queen's University, Kingston, Ontario, Canada. 8. Gerald Bronfman Department of Oncology, Division of Cancer Epidemiology and Department of Epidemiology, Biostatistics and Occupational Health, McGill University, Montréal, Québec, Canada. 9. Canadian Cancer Society, Toronto, Ontario, Canada. 10. Cancer Care Ontario, Toronto, Ontario, Canada. 11. Department of Oncology, Cumming School of Medicine, University of Calgary, Calgary, Alberta, Canada. 12. Department of Community Health Sciences, Cumming School of Medicine, University of Calgary, Calgary, Alberta, Canada. 13. Department of Cancer Epidemiology and Prevention Research, Cancer Care Alberta, Alberta Health Services, Holy Cross Centre, Room 513C, Box ACB, 2210-2nd St. SW, Calgary, AB, T2S 3C3, Canada. Darren.Brenner@ucalgary.ca. 14. Department of Oncology, Cumming School of Medicine, University of Calgary, Calgary, Alberta, Canada. Darren.Brenner@ucalgary.ca. 15. Department of Community Health Sciences, Cumming School of Medicine, University of Calgary, Calgary, Alberta, Canada. Darren.Brenner@ucalgary.ca.
Abstract
OBJECTIVES: Modifiable lifestyle, environmental, and infectious risk factors associated with cancer impact both cancer incidence and mortality at the population level. Most studies estimating this burden focus on cancer incidence. However, because these risk factors are associated with cancers of disparate mortality rates, the burden associated with cancer incidence could differ from cancer mortality. Therefore, estimating the cancer mortality attributable to these risk factors provides additional insight into cancer prevention. Here, we estimated future cancer deaths and the number of avoidable deaths in Canada due to modifiable risk factors. METHODS: The projected cancer mortality data came from OncoSim, a web-based microsimulation tool. These data were applied to the methodological framework that we previously used to estimate the population attributable risks and the potential impact fractions of modifiable risk factors on Canadian cancer incidence. RESULTS: We estimated that most cancer deaths will be attributed to tobacco smoking with an average of 27,900 deaths annually from 2024 to 2047. If Canada's current trends in excess body weight continue, cancer deaths attributable to excess body weight would double from 2786 deaths in 2024 to 5604 deaths in 2047, becoming the second leading modifiable cause of cancer death. Applying targets to reduce these risk factors, up to 34,600 cancer deaths could be prevented from 2024 to 2047. CONCLUSION: Our simulated results complement our previous findings on the cancer incidence burden since decreasing the overall burden of cancer will be accelerated through a combination of decreasing cancer incidence and improving survival outcomes through improved treatments.
OBJECTIVES: Modifiable lifestyle, environmental, and infectious risk factors associated with cancer impact both cancer incidence and mortality at the population level. Most studies estimating this burden focus on cancer incidence. However, because these risk factors are associated with cancers of disparate mortality rates, the burden associated with cancer incidence could differ from cancer mortality. Therefore, estimating the cancer mortality attributable to these risk factors provides additional insight into cancer prevention. Here, we estimated future cancer deaths and the number of avoidable deaths in Canada due to modifiable risk factors. METHODS: The projected cancer mortality data came from OncoSim, a web-based microsimulation tool. These data were applied to the methodological framework that we previously used to estimate the population attributable risks and the potential impact fractions of modifiable risk factors on Canadian cancer incidence. RESULTS: We estimated that most cancer deaths will be attributed to tobacco smoking with an average of 27,900 deaths annually from 2024 to 2047. If Canada's current trends in excess body weight continue, cancer deaths attributable to excess body weight would double from 2786 deaths in 2024 to 5604 deaths in 2047, becoming the second leading modifiable cause of cancer death. Applying targets to reduce these risk factors, up to 34,600 cancer deaths could be prevented from 2024 to 2047. CONCLUSION: Our simulated results complement our previous findings on the cancer incidence burden since decreasing the overall burden of cancer will be accelerated through a combination of decreasing cancer incidence and improving survival outcomes through improved treatments.
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