| Literature DB >> 33977165 |
Didrik Kjønås1, Gry Dahle2, Henrik Schirmer3,4, Siri Malm5, Jo Eidet6, Lars Aaberge7, Terje Steigen1,8, Svend Aakhus9,10, Rolf Busund8,11, Assami Rösner1.
Abstract
OBJECTIVES: Transcatheter aortic valve implantation (TAVI)-specific risk scores have been developed based on large registry studies. Our aim was to evaluate how both surgical and novel TAVI risk scores performed in predicting all cause 30-day mortality. In addition, we wanted to explore the validity of our own previously developed model in a separate and more recent cohort.Entities:
Keywords: TAVI; mortality; risk prediction
Year: 2021 PMID: 33977165 PMCID: PMC8102057 DOI: 10.1002/hsr2.283
Source DB: PubMed Journal: Health Sci Rep ISSN: 2398-8835
Preoperative demographics and clinical characteristics for the derivation and validation cohort
| Variable | Reference cohort (N = 218) | Validation cohort (N = 241) |
|
|---|---|---|---|
| Age (y) | 82 ± 7 | 81 ± 8 | .43 |
| Female gender, n (%) | 98 (45) | 111 (46) | .81 |
| Body mass index, (kg/m2) | 26 ± 5 | 27 ± 5 | .097 |
| NYHA 4, n (%) | 57 (26) | 40 (17) | .012 |
| HF < 2 wk, n (%) | 96 (44) | 87 (36) | .083 |
| LVEF (%) | 49 ± 12 | 51 ± 13 | .22 |
| AI2, n (%) | 38 (17) | 30 (12) | .09 |
| MI2, n (%) | 45 (21) | 31 (13) | .019 |
| Mean gradient (mm Hg) | 52 ± 15 | 53 ± 15 | .92 |
| Atrial fibrillation/flutter, n (%) | 100 (46) | 89 (37) | .052 |
| Hypertension, n (%) | 148 (68) | 138 (57) | .019 |
| Porcelain aorta, | 26 (12) | 12 (5) | .007 |
| Immunocompromised, | 28 (13) | 52 (22) | .014 |
| Diabetes, | 62 (28) | 49 (20) | .043 |
| SPAP | |||
| <30 mm Hg | 67 (31) | 83 (34) | .40 |
| 30‐60 mm Hg | 130 (60) | 126 (53) | .113 |
| > 60 mm Hg | 21 (9) | 32 (13) | .222 |
| Previous CABG, n (%) | 95 (44) | 70 (29) | .001 |
| Previous SAVR, n (%) | 9 (4.1) | 4 (1.7) | .83 |
| Previous PCI, n (%) | 87 (40) | 95 (39) | .92 |
| Previous myocardial infarction, n (%) | 82 (38) | 77 (32) | .20 |
| Previous cerebrovascular event, n (%) | 52 (24) | 35 (15) | .011 |
| eGFR (ml/min) | 54 ± 26 | 64 ± 24 | <.001 |
| COPD, n (%) | 78 (36) | 63 (26) | .025 |
| Peripheral artery disease, | 80 (37) | 75 (31) | .21 |
| Access, | |||
| Transfemoral | 122 (56) | 209 (87) | <.000 |
| Transaortic | 28 (13) | 10 (4) | .001 |
| Transapical | 68(31) | 22(9) | <.000 |
| Local anesthesia, n (%) | 0 (0) | 105 (44) | NA |
| STS score (6) | 7.1 ± 4.5 | 6.3 ± 4.4 | .68 |
| EuroSCORE 2(5) | 9.1 ± 7.5 | 8.1 ± 6.8 | .031 |
| Logistic EuroSCORE (4) | 22 [19] | 20 [22] | .210 |
| EuroSCORE | 11.0 ± 2.4 | 10.0 ± 2.5 | .167 |
| FRANCE‐2 score (10) | 3.4 ± 2.1 | 2.4 ± 1.8 | <.000 |
| IRRMA score (12) | 0.8 ± 0.7 | 0.5 ± 0.6 | <.000 |
| OBSERVANT score (9) | 3 [8] | 0 [6] | .079 |
| German AV score (11) | 2.8 ± 0.8 | 2.7 ± 0.9 | .124 |
| Mortality, n (%) | 19 (8.7) | 10 (4.1) | .045 |
Note: Numbers are presented as n (%), mean ± SD, or median [IQR].
Abbreviations: AI2, aortic insufficiency grade 2 or above; CABG, coronary artery bypass grafting; COPD, chronic obstructive pulmonary disease; eGFR, estimated glomerular filtration rate; HF < 2 wk, physician‐documented clinical signs of heart failure less than 2 wk prior to surgery in the form of unusual dyspnea on light exertion, orthopnea, fluid retention, rales on auscultation, or pulmonary edema on chest X‐ray; LVEF, left ventricular ejection fraction; MI2, mitral insufficiency grade 2 or above; PCI, percutaneous coronary intervention; SAVR, surgical aortic valve replacement; SPAP, systolic pulmonary artery pressure.
Logistic model for 30‐d mortality based on the derivation cohort
| β coefficient | OR | 95% CI | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Body mass index (kg/m2) | −0.37 | 0.69 | 0.56‐0.86 |
| HF < 2 wk | 1.37 | 3.93 | 1.1‐14.25 |
| SPAP | |||
| <30 mm Hg | |||
| 30‐60 mm Hg | 0.45 | 1.57 | 0.36‐6.86 |
| > 60 mm Hg | 2.84 | 17.18 | 2.39‐123 |
| Peripheral artery disease | 2.17 | 8.72 | 2.12‐35 |
| Access | |||
| Transfemoral | |||
| Transaortic | ‐ 0.62 | 0.54 | 0.049‐6.01 |
| Transapical | 2.8 | 5.09 | 1.34‐19.31 |
| Constant | 5.64 |
Abbreviations: HF < 2 wk, physician‐documented clinical signs of heart failure less than 2 wk prior to surgery in the form of unusual dyspnea on light exertion, orthopnea, fluid retention, rales on auscultation, or pulmonary edema on chest X‐ray; SPAP, systolic pulmonary artery pressure.
Analyzed as a continuous variable.
Analyzed as a categorical variable.
C‐statistic with 95% CI for surgical and TAVI risk scores and DeLong test for each risk score compared to our model (UNN/OUS)
| Derivation cohort | Validation cohort | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| C‐statistic | 95% CI | C‐statistic | 95% CI | |
| UNN/OUS (14) | 0.91 | 0.85‐0.98 | 0.83 | 0.66‐0.99 |
| IRRMA score (12) | 0.72 | 0.59‐0.84 | 0.72 | 0.55‐0.90 |
| FRANCE‐2 score (10) | 0.69 | 0.57‐0.80 | 0.82 | 0.69‐0.95 |
| STS score (6) | 0.68 | 0.56‐0.81 | 0.67 | 0.50‐0.85 |
| German AV score (11) | 0.58 | 0.44‐0.73 | 0.65 | 0.49‐0.81 |
| OBSERVANT score (9) | 0.57 | 0.42‐0.72 | 0.58 | 0.39‐0.77 |
| EuroSCORE 2(5) | 0.56 | 0.42‐0.70 | 0.53 | 0.37‐0.70 |
| EuroSCORE (3) | 0.56 | 0.41‐0.70 | 0.55 | 0.43‐0.68 |
| Logistic EuroSCORE (4) | 0.55 | 0.41‐0.70 | 0.55 | 0.40‐0.70 |
Abbreviations: EuroSCORE, European System for Cardiac Operative Risk Evaluation; FRANCE‐2, French Aortic National CoreValve and Edwards registry score; German AV, German Aortic Valve score; IRRMA, Israeli TAVR Registry Risk Model Accuracy score; OBSERVANT, Observational Study of Appropriateness, Efficacy and Effectiveness of AVR‐TAVR Procedures for the Treatment of Severe Symptomatic Aortic stenosis score; STS, Society of Thoracic Surgeons score; UNN/OUS, University Hospital of North Norway/Oslo University Hospital.
Results of DeLong test comparing the C‐statistic between each risk score in the derivation and validation cohort
| UNN/OUS | FRANCE‐2 | IRRMA | German AV | OBSERVANT | STS | EuroSCORE | Log EuroSCORE | EuroSCORE 2 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| UNN/OUS |
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| FRANCE‐2 | <0.001 | ‐ |
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| IRRMA | 0.001 | 0.61 | ‐ |
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| German AV | <0.001 | 0.26 | 0.20 | ‐ |
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| OBSERVANT | <0.001 | 0.15 | 0.10 | 0.89 | ‐ |
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| STS | 0.003 | 0.92 | 0.70 | 0.17 | 0.16 | ‐ |
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| EuroSCORE | <0.001 | 0.11 | 0.06 | 0.59 | 0.85 | 0.07 | ‐ |
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| Log EuroSCORE | <0.001 | 0.10 | 0.06 | 0.55 | 0.84 | 0.06 | 0.89 | ‐ |
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| EuroSCORE 2 | <0.001 | 0.16 | 0.07 | 0.75 | 0.91 | 0.05 | 0.86 | 0.83 | ‐ |
Note: Validation cohort displayed in the upper right‐hand corner in italic. Derivation cohort in lower left‐hand corner.
Abbreviations: EuroSCORE, European System for Cardiac Operative Risk Evaluation; FRANCE‐2, French Aortic National CoreValve and Edwards registry score; German AV, German Aortic Valve score; IRRMA, Israeli TAVR Registry Risk Model Accuracy score; OBSERVANT, Observational Study of Appropriateness, Efficacy and Effectiveness of AVR‐TAVR Procedures for the Treatment of Severe Symptomatic Aortic stenosis score; STS, Society of Thoracic Surgeons score; UNN/OUS, University Hospital of North Norway/Oslo University Hospital.
FIGURE 1Receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curves for surgical and TAVI specific risk scores applied to the derivation and validation cohorts. EuroSCORE, European System for Cardiac Operative Risk Evaluation; FRANCE‐2, French Aortic National CoreValve and Edwards registry score; German AV, German Aortic Valve score; IRRMA, Israeli TAVR Registry Risk Model Accuracy score; OBSERVANT, Observational Study of Appropriateness, Efficacy and Effectiveness of AVR‐TAVR Procedures for the Treatment of Severe Symptomatic Aortic stenosis score; STS, Society of Thoracic Surgeons score; UNN/OUS, University Hospital of North Norway/Oslo University Hospital