Jian Chen1, Yu-Jian Xia1, Tian-Yu Liu2, Yuan-Hui Lai3, Ji-Shang Yu1, Tian-Hao Zhang1, Shiyin Ooi2, Yu-Long He4,5. 1. Center for Gastrointestinal Surgery, the First Affiliated Hospital of Sun Yat-Sen University, 58 Zhongshan 2nd Road, Guangzhou, 510080, Guangdong, China. 2. Department of Obstetrics and Gynecology, the First Affiliated Hospital of Sun Yat-sen University, Guangzhou, Guangdong, China. 3. Department of Thyroid and Breast Surgery, the Eastern Division of the First Affiliated Hospital of Sun Yat-sen University, Guangzhou, Guangdong, China. 4. Center for Gastrointestinal Surgery, the First Affiliated Hospital of Sun Yat-Sen University, 58 Zhongshan 2nd Road, Guangzhou, 510080, Guangdong, China. doctoryulong@126.com. 5. Digestive Medicine Center, the Seventh Affiliated Hospital of Sun Yat-Sen University, Shenzhen, Guangdong, China. doctoryulong@126.com.
Abstract
BACKGROUND: The clinical staging systems for adenocarcinoma of the esophagogastric junction (AEG) are controversial. We aimed to propose a prognostic nomogram based on real-world data for predicting survival of Siewert type II/III AEG patients after surgery. METHODS: A total of 396 patients with Siewert type II/III AEG diagnosed and treated at the Center for Gastrointestinal Surgery, the First Affiliated Hospital, Sun Yat-sen University, from June 2009 to June 2017 were enrolled. The original data of 29 variables were exported from the electronic medical records system. The nomogram was established based on multivariate Cox regression coefficients, and its performance was measured using Harrell's concordance index (C-index), receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve analysis and calibration curve. RESULTS: A nomogram was constructed based on nine variables. The C-index for overall survival (OS) prediction was 0.76 (95% CI, 0.72 to 0.80) in the training cohort, in the validation-1 cohort was 0.79 (95% CI, 0.72 to 0.86), and 0.73 (95% CI, 0.67 to 0.80) in the validation-2 cohort. Time-dependent ROC curves and calibration curves in all three cohorts showed good prognostic predictive accuracy. We further proved the superiority of the nomogram in predictive accuracy for OS to pathological TNM (pTNM) staging system and other independent prognostic factors. Kaplan-Meier survival curves demonstrated the pTNM stage, grade of differentiation, positive lymph node, log odds of positive lymph node and organ invasion were prognostic factors with good discriminative ability. CONCLUSION: The established nomogram demonstrated a more precise prognostic prediction for patients with Siewert type II/III AEG.
BACKGROUND: The clinical staging systems for adenocarcinoma of the esophagogastric junction (AEG) are controversial. We aimed to propose a prognostic nomogram based on real-world data for predicting survival of Siewert type II/III AEGpatients after surgery. METHODS: A total of 396 patients with Siewert type II/III AEG diagnosed and treated at the Center for Gastrointestinal Surgery, the First Affiliated Hospital, Sun Yat-sen University, from June 2009 to June 2017 were enrolled. The original data of 29 variables were exported from the electronic medical records system. The nomogram was established based on multivariate Cox regression coefficients, and its performance was measured using Harrell's concordance index (C-index), receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve analysis and calibration curve. RESULTS: A nomogram was constructed based on nine variables. The C-index for overall survival (OS) prediction was 0.76 (95% CI, 0.72 to 0.80) in the training cohort, in the validation-1 cohort was 0.79 (95% CI, 0.72 to 0.86), and 0.73 (95% CI, 0.67 to 0.80) in the validation-2 cohort. Time-dependent ROC curves and calibration curves in all three cohorts showed good prognostic predictive accuracy. We further proved the superiority of the nomogram in predictive accuracy for OS to pathological TNM (pTNM) staging system and other independent prognostic factors. Kaplan-Meier survival curves demonstrated the pTNM stage, grade of differentiation, positive lymph node, log odds of positive lymph node and organ invasion were prognostic factors with good discriminative ability. CONCLUSION: The established nomogram demonstrated a more precise prognostic prediction for patients with Siewert type II/III AEG.
Entities:
Keywords:
Adenocarcinoma of the esophagogastric junction; Clinical decision support; Nomogram; Prognosis; Real-world data
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