Sheng-Nan Lin1, Jia Rui1, Qiu-Ping Chen2, Bin Zhao3, Shan-Shan Yu1, Zhuo-Yang Li1, Ze-Yu Zhao1, Yao Wang1, Yuan-Zhao Zhu1, Jing-Wen Xu1, Meng Yang1, Xing-Chun Liu1, Tian-Long Yang1, Li Luo1, Bin Deng1, Jie-Feng Huang1, Chan Liu1, Pei-Hua Li1, Wei-Kang Liu1, Fang Xie1, Yong Chen4, Yan-Hua Su1, Ben-Hua Zhao5, Yi-Chen Chiang6, Tian-Mu Chen7. 1. State Key Laboratory of Molecular Vaccinology and Molecular Diagnostics, School of Public Health, Xiamen University, 4221-117 South Xiang'an Road, Xiang'an, Xiamen, Fujian, People's Republic of China. 2. Medical Insurance Office, Xiang'an Hospital of Xiamen University, Xiamen, Fujian, People's Republic of China. 3. Clinical Medical Laboratory, Xiang'an Hospital of Xiamen University, Xiamen, Fujian, People's Republic of China. 4. Department of Stomatology, School of Medicine, Xiamen University, Xiamen, Fujian, People's Republic of China. 5. State Key Laboratory of Molecular Vaccinology and Molecular Diagnostics, School of Public Health, Xiamen University, 4221-117 South Xiang'an Road, Xiang'an, Xiamen, Fujian, People's Republic of China. benhuazhao@163.com. 6. State Key Laboratory of Molecular Vaccinology and Molecular Diagnostics, School of Public Health, Xiamen University, 4221-117 South Xiang'an Road, Xiang'an, Xiamen, Fujian, People's Republic of China. jyj@xmu.edu.cn. 7. State Key Laboratory of Molecular Vaccinology and Molecular Diagnostics, School of Public Health, Xiamen University, 4221-117 South Xiang'an Road, Xiang'an, Xiamen, Fujian, People's Republic of China. 13698665@qq.com.
Abstract
BACKGROUND: Novel coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) causes an immense disease burden. Although public health countermeasures effectively controlled the epidemic in China, non-pharmaceutical interventions can neither be maintained indefinitely nor conveniently implemented globally. Vaccination is mainly used to prevent COVID-19, and most current antiviral treatment evaluations focus on clinical efficacy. Therefore, we conducted population-based simulations to assess antiviral treatment effectiveness among different age groups based on its clinical efficacy. METHODS: We collected COVID-19 data of Wuhan City from published literature and established a database (from 2 December 2019 to 16 March 2020). We developed an age-specific model to evaluate the effectiveness of antiviral treatment in patients with COVID-19. Efficacy was divided into three types: (1) viral activity reduction, reflected as transmission rate decrease [reduction was set as v (0-0.8) to simulate hypothetical antiviral treatments]; (2) reduction in the duration time from symptom onset to patient recovery/removal, reflected as a 1/γ decrease (reduction was set as 1-3 days to simulate hypothetical or real-life antiviral treatments, and the time of asymptomatic was reduced by the same proportion); (3) fatality rate reduction in severely ill patients (fc) [reduction (z) was set as 0.3 to simulate real-life antiviral treatments]. The population was divided into four age groups (groups 1, 2, 3 and 4), which included those aged ≤ 14; 15-44; 45-64; and ≥ 65 years, respectively. Evaluation indices were based on outbreak duration, cumulative number of cases, total attack rate (TAR), peak date, number of peak cases, and case fatality rate (f). RESULTS: Comparing the simulation results of combination and single medication therapy s, all four age groups showed better results with combination medication. When 1/γ = 2 and v = 0.4, age group 2 had the highest TAR reduction rate (98.48%, 56.01-0.85%). When 1/γ = 2, z = 0.3, and v = 0.1, age group 1 had the highest reduction rate of f (83.08%, 0.71-0.12%). CONCLUSIONS: Antiviral treatments are more effective in COVID-19 transmission control than in mortality reduction. Overall, antiviral treatments were more effective in younger age groups, while older age groups showed higher COVID-19 prevalence and mortality. Therefore, physicians should pay more attention to prevention of viral spread and patients deaths when providing antiviral treatments to patients of older age groups.
BACKGROUND:Novel coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) causes an immense disease burden. Although public health countermeasures effectively controlled the epidemic in China, non-pharmaceutical interventions can neither be maintained indefinitely nor conveniently implemented globally. Vaccination is mainly used to prevent COVID-19, and most current antiviral treatment evaluations focus on clinical efficacy. Therefore, we conducted population-based simulations to assess antiviral treatment effectiveness among different age groups based on its clinical efficacy. METHODS: We collected COVID-19 data of Wuhan City from published literature and established a database (from 2 December 2019 to 16 March 2020). We developed an age-specific model to evaluate the effectiveness of antiviral treatment in patients with COVID-19. Efficacy was divided into three types: (1) viral activity reduction, reflected as transmission rate decrease [reduction was set as v (0-0.8) to simulate hypothetical antiviral treatments]; (2) reduction in the duration time from symptom onset to patient recovery/removal, reflected as a 1/γ decrease (reduction was set as 1-3 days to simulate hypothetical or real-life antiviral treatments, and the time of asymptomatic was reduced by the same proportion); (3) fatality rate reduction in severely ill patients (fc) [reduction (z) was set as 0.3 to simulate real-life antiviral treatments]. The population was divided into four age groups (groups 1, 2, 3 and 4), which included those aged ≤ 14; 15-44; 45-64; and ≥ 65 years, respectively. Evaluation indices were based on outbreak duration, cumulative number of cases, total attack rate (TAR), peak date, number of peak cases, and case fatality rate (f). RESULTS: Comparing the simulation results of combination and single medication therapy s, all four age groups showed better results with combination medication. When 1/γ = 2 and v = 0.4, age group 2 had the highest TAR reduction rate (98.48%, 56.01-0.85%). When 1/γ = 2, z = 0.3, and v = 0.1, age group 1 had the highest reduction rate of f (83.08%, 0.71-0.12%). CONCLUSIONS: Antiviral treatments are more effective in COVID-19 transmission control than in mortality reduction. Overall, antiviral treatments were more effective in younger age groups, while older age groups showed higher COVID-19 prevalence and mortality. Therefore, physicians should pay more attention to prevention of viral spread and patientsdeaths when providing antiviral treatments to patients of older age groups.
Entities:
Keywords:
Age group; Antiviral treatment; COVID-19; Transmission model
Authors: Seth Flaxman; Swapnil Mishra; Axel Gandy; H Juliette T Unwin; Thomas A Mellan; Helen Coupland; Charles Whittaker; Harrison Zhu; Tresnia Berah; Jeffrey W Eaton; Mélodie Monod; Azra C Ghani; Christl A Donnelly; Steven Riley; Michaela A C Vollmer; Neil M Ferguson; Lucy C Okell; Samir Bhatt Journal: Nature Date: 2020-06-08 Impact factor: 49.962
Authors: Min Woo Jo; Dun Sol Go; Rhieun Kim; Seung Won Lee; Minsu Ock; Young Eun Kim; In Hwan Oh; Seok Jun Yoon; Hyesook Park Journal: J Korean Med Sci Date: 2020-06-01 Impact factor: 2.153
Authors: Adil Al Wahaibi; Abdullah Al Manji; Amal Al Maani; Bader Al Rawahi; Khalid Al Harthy; Fatma Alyaquobi; Amina Al-Jardani; Eskild Petersen; Seif Al Abri Journal: Int J Infect Dis Date: 2020-08-20 Impact factor: 3.623
Authors: Nashwah G M Attallah; Aya H El-Kadem; Walaa A Negm; Engy Elekhnawy; Thanaa A El-Masry; Elshaymaa I Elmongy; Najla Altwaijry; Ashwag S Alanazi; Gadah Abdulaziz Al-Hamoud; Amany E Ragab Journal: Pharmaceuticals (Basel) Date: 2021-12-16