| Literature DB >> 33801075 |
Elena Ortiz-Teran1,2, Ibai Diez2, Joaquin Lopez-Pascual3.
Abstract
It is claimed that investment decision-making should rely on rational analyses based on facts and not emotions. However, trying to make money out of market forecasts can trigger all types of emotional responses. As the question on how investors decide remains controversial, we carried out an activation likelihood estimation (ALE) meta-analysis using functional magnetic resonance imaging (fMRI) studies that have reported whole-brain analyses on subjects performing an investment task. We identified the ventral striatum, anterior insula, amygdala and anterior cingulate cortex as being involved in this decision-making process. These regions are limbic-related structures which respond to reward, risk and emotional conflict. Our findings support the notion that investment choices are emotional decisions that take into account market information, individual preferences and beliefs.Entities:
Keywords: amygdala; anterior cingulate cortex; anterior insula; investor; neuroeconomics; reward; risk; stock; ventral striatum
Year: 2021 PMID: 33801075 PMCID: PMC8003996 DOI: 10.3390/brainsci11030399
Source DB: PubMed Journal: Brain Sci ISSN: 2076-3425
Figure 1Search flow diagram adapted from PRISMA guidelines.
Figure 2Overview of significant clusters resulting from the activation likelihood estimation (ALE) meta-analysis regarding investment decision-making. The four clusters found during risky and safe investments were (1) ventral striatum + amygdala + anterior cingulate cortex; (2) the ventral striatum; (3) the anterior insula; and (4) the occipital cortex. The clusters corrected for multiple comparisons are outlined in black. L = left, R = right.
Significant clusters of the meta-analysis surviving to multiple comparisons.
| Cluster # | Brain Areas | Size (mm3) | Center Coordinate | Peak Coordinate | ALE |
| Z |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Ventral striatum + amygdala + ACC 1 | 6360 | (−11.8, 13.3, −7.8) | (−10, 16, −4) | 0.0439 | 6.59 | |
| 2 | Ventral striatum | 3976 | (11.2, 13.1, −5.8) | (10, 14, −6) | 0.0748 | 9.44 | |
| 3 | Anterior insula | 2048 | (22.6, −95.3, 8.8) | (22, −96, 8) | 0.0611 | 8.24 | |
| 4 | Occipital cortex | 1544 | (49.1, 18.6, −3.9) | (54, 16, −4) | 0.0303 | 5.11 |
1 ACC = anterior cingulate cortex.
Investment decision-making studies included in the meta-analysis.
| References | Stimuli | Brain and Behavioral Results | Cluster # |
|---|---|---|---|
| Kuhnen et al., 2005 | Two stocks (one good and the other bad) and a bond | Anticipatory nucleus accumbens activity preceded risky choices, and excessive levels of activation led to risk-seeking mistakes. | 1 |
| Lohrenz et al., 2007 | Market information in live and not live conditions, gains and losses, portfolio value and percentage already invested | Higher levels of ventral caudate activity correlated with fictive error signals, driving investment behavior. | 1 |
| Mohr et al., 2009 | Streams of 10 past returns from an investment | Risk and value are represented in the brain during investment decisions in discrete (simple gambles) and continuous distributions (stocks). | 1 |
| Bruguier et al., 2010 | Replay of market experiment sessions (order and trade flow) with and without insiders | Theory of mind is involved in forecasting price changes in markets with insiders and related to increased activation in the paracingulate cortex. | |
| Burke et al., 2010 | Stock information and social information (four human faces or four chimpanzee faces) | Higher levels of ventral striatum activity correlated with the participants´ likelihood to follow herd behavior, especially in the number of buying decisions. | 1 |
| Brooks et al., 2012 | Purchase prices and asset prices (random walk) | The irrational belief in mean reversion better explains the disposition effect. | 1 |
| De Martino et al., 2013 | Portfolio value and trading prices (asks and bids) in bubble and non-bubble markets | The evaluation of social signals in dorsomedial prefrontal cortex activity affects value representations in the ventromedial prefrontal cortex. | |
| Zeng et al., 2013 | Amounts already invested in a company´s project where sunk costs and incremental costs are manipulated | Higher levels of lateral frontal and parietal cortex activity are related to higher sunk costs and more risk-taking behavior. | |
| Lohrenz et al., 2013 | Market data and social information (other players´ bets) | Interpersonal fictive errors guide behavior and highly correlate with striatum activity. | 1 |
| Ogawa et al., 2014 | Stock and asset information in a virtual stock exchange with two non-bubble stocks and one bubble stock | In market bubbles, brain networks switch toward dorsolateral prefrontal cortex and inferior parietal lobule connectivity, in which buying decisions are made in the former based on the information gathered by the latter region. Cash holdings were positively correlated with activation in the ventromedial prefrontal cortex, while trading during large price fluctuations were associated with superior parietal lobule activity. | |
| Smith et al., 2014 | Trading prices of risk-free and risky assets (stocks) in markets where endogenous bubbles are formed and crash | Higher levels of nucleus accumbens activity are associated with buying decisions, lower earnings, and increased likelihood of a crash. | 1 |
| Haller et al., 2014 | Project costs and success probabilities | Higher levels of dorsolateral prefrontal cortex and lower levels of ventromedial prefrontal cortex activity are related to higher sunk costs and being prone to continue investing in previous investments. | 1 |
| Gu et al., 2014 | Market prices where choices are made under two conditions: regulate and attend | Only fictive errors are susceptible to reappraisal strategies by changes in activation in anterior insula and anterior insula–amygdala connectivity, modulating subjective feelings that affect behavior directly. | 1 |
| Huber et al., 2015 | Two stocks with social (decisions made by two fictitious traders) and private information (personal recommendation from a rating agency) | Higher levels of inferior frontal gyrus/anterior insula activity and lower levels of parietal-temporal cortex activity are correlated with overweighting private information, which can influence the probability in the formation of informational cascades. | 2 |
| Majer et al., 2016 | Past returns of investments and investment choices with fixed or risky returns | Higher levels of anterior insula and dorsomedial prefrontal cortex activity correlated with risk and decision-making. | |
| Häusler et al., 2018 | Stocks (risky option) and bonds (non-risky option) in gain and loss domains | Lower levels of anterior insula activity are connected to risky decisions in real-life stock traders. These choices are based on personal beliefs about risky choices and the willingness to bear risk. | 1 |
Figure 3Schematic representation of brain activation reported in the ALE meta-analysis study during investment decision-making. Sell orders are shown in red, buy orders are in blue, and neither sell nor buy orders (hold) are in orange. Each order is accompanied by increased (▲) or decrease (▼) neural activity in certain brain areas. Prediction errors appear in green, where (*) indicates that reappraisal strategies were implemented. The location of each activation in the figure is based on the situation of the market, being under bubble or non-bubble conditions. Black indicates brain connectivity activation under both market conditions. AIns = anterior insula; PPC = posterior parietal cortex; NAcc = nucleus accumbens; vmPFC = ventromedial prefrontal cortex; ACC = anterior cingulate cortex; dlPFC = dorsolateral prefrontal cortex; and IPL = inferior parietal lobule.