Hiroki Sato1, Takuma Goto1, Akihiro Hayashi1, Hidemasa Kawabata1, Tetsuhiro Okada1, Shuhei Takauji1, Junpei Sasajima1, Katsuro Enomoto1, Mikihiro Fujiya1, Kyohei Oyama2, Yusuke Ono3, Ayumu Sugitani3, Yusuke Mizukami4, Toshikatsu Okumura1. 1. Department of Medicine, Asahikawa Medical University, 2-1 Midorigaoka-Higashi, Asahikawa, Japan. 2. Department of Cardiovascular Surgery, Asahikawa Medical University, 2-1 Midorigaoka-Higashi, Asahikawa, Japan. 3. Institute of Biomedical Research, Sapporo-Higashi Tokushukai Hospital, 3-1, North-33, East-14, Higashi-Ku, Sapporo, Japan. 4. Department of Medicine, Asahikawa Medical University, 2-1 Midorigaoka-Higashi, Asahikawa, Japan; Institute of Biomedical Research, Sapporo-Higashi Tokushukai Hospital, 3-1, North-33, East-14, Higashi-Ku, Sapporo, Japan. Electronic address: mizu@asahikawa-med.ac.jp.
Abstract
BACKGROUND/ OBJECTIVES: Decrease in skeletal muscle mass and function is associated with a poor prognosis following surgical resection of pancreatic ductal adenocarcinomas (PDAs). This study evaluated whether skeletal muscle mass decrease affects PDA outcomes. METHODS: Data of 112 patients with advanced and unresectable PDA who underwent chemotherapy in a single institution were retrospectively analyzed. Information on age, sex, hematological investigations, including systemic inflammation-based markers and nutritional assessment biomarkers, and imaging parameters of skeletal muscle mass and visceral adipose tissue were retrieved from the patients' medical records. The efficiency of the Cox, Weibull, and standardized exponential models were compared using hazard ratios and the Akaike Information Criterion (AIC). RESULTS: Results from the Weibull, Cox, and standardized exponential model analyses indicated that low skeletal muscle mass, Eastern Cooperative Oncology Group performance status (PS), and the requirement of biliary drainage were associated with the highest risk of death, followed by carcinoembryonic antigen (CEA) levels and the presence of ascites. The AIC value from the four significant parameters was lowest for the Weibull-exponential distribution (222.3) than that of the Cox (653.7) and standardized exponential models (265.7). We developed a model for estimating the 1-year survival probability using the Weibull-exponential distribution. CONCLUSIONS: Low-skeletal muscle index, PS, requirement of biliary drainage, CEA levels, and presence of ascites are independent factors for predicting poor patient survival after chemotherapy. Improved survival modeling using a parametric approach may accurately predict the outcome of patients with advanced-stage PDA.
BACKGROUND/ OBJECTIVES: Decrease in skeletal muscle mass and function is associated with a poor prognosis following surgical resection of pancreatic ductal adenocarcinomas (PDAs). This study evaluated whether skeletal muscle mass decrease affects PDA outcomes. METHODS: Data of 112 patients with advanced and unresectable PDA who underwent chemotherapy in a single institution were retrospectively analyzed. Information on age, sex, hematological investigations, including systemic inflammation-based markers and nutritional assessment biomarkers, and imaging parameters of skeletal muscle mass and visceral adipose tissue were retrieved from the patients' medical records. The efficiency of the Cox, Weibull, and standardized exponential models were compared using hazard ratios and the Akaike Information Criterion (AIC). RESULTS: Results from the Weibull, Cox, and standardized exponential model analyses indicated that low skeletal muscle mass, Eastern Cooperative Oncology Group performance status (PS), and the requirement of biliary drainage were associated with the highest risk of death, followed by carcinoembryonic antigen (CEA) levels and the presence of ascites. The AIC value from the four significant parameters was lowest for the Weibull-exponential distribution (222.3) than that of the Cox (653.7) and standardized exponential models (265.7). We developed a model for estimating the 1-year survival probability using the Weibull-exponential distribution. CONCLUSIONS: Low-skeletal muscle index, PS, requirement of biliary drainage, CEA levels, and presence of ascites are independent factors for predicting poor patient survival after chemotherapy. Improved survival modeling using a parametric approach may accurately predict the outcome of patients with advanced-stage PDA.