Zheng Hui1, Shevanthi Nayagam2, Polin Chan3, Wang Fuzhen4, Mark Thursz5, Yin Zundong4, Miao Ning4, Sun Xiaojin4, Fuqiang Cui1, Zhang Guomin4, Timothy B Hallett2. 1. School of Public Health, Peking University, 38 Xueyuan Road, Haidian District, Beijing 100191, China. 2. Department of Infectious Disease Epidemiology, Imperial College London, London, England. 3. World Health Organization Regional Office for the Western Pacific, Manila, Philippines. 4. National Immunization Programme, Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Beijing, China. 5. Division of Digestive Diseases, Imperial College London, London, England.
Abstract
OBJECTIVE: To determine the projected burden of hepatitis B virus (HBV) in China, the intervention strategies that can eliminate mother-to-child transmission (MTCT) by 2030 or earlier and the measurable parameters that can be used to monitor progress towards this target. METHODS: We developed a dynamic, sex- and age-stratified model of the HBV epidemic in China, calibrated using hepatitis B surface antigen (HBsAg) and e antigen (HBeAg) prevalence data from sequential national serosurveys (1979-2014) and the numbers of HBV-related cancer deaths (2012). We determined whether China can achieve elimination of MTCT of HBV by 2030 under current prevention interventions. We modelled various intervention scenarios to represent different coverage levels of birth-dose HBV vaccination, hepatitis B immunoglobulin to newborns of HBsAg-positive mothers and antiviral therapy (tenofovir) to HBeAg-positive pregnant women. FINDINGS: We project that, if current levels of prevention interventions are maintained, China will achieve the elimination target by 2029. By modelling various intervention scenarios, we found that this can be brought forward to 2025 by increasing coverage of birth-dose vaccination, or to 2024 by the administration of tenofovir to HBeAg-positive pregnant women. We found that achievement of the target by 2025 would be predicted by a measurement of less than 2% MTCT in 2020. CONCLUSION: Our results highlight how high-quality national data can be combined with modelling in monitoring the elimination of MTCT of HBV. By demonstrating the impact of increased interventions on target achievement dates, we anticipate that other high-burden countries will be motivated to strengthen HBV prevention policies. (c) World Health Organization (WHO) 2021. All rights reserved.
OBJECTIVE: To determine the projected burden of hepatitis B virus (HBV) in China, the intervention strategies that can eliminate mother-to-child transmission (MTCT) by 2030 or earlier and the measurable parameters that can be used to monitor progress towards this target. METHODS: We developed a dynamic, sex- and age-stratified model of the HBV epidemic in China, calibrated using hepatitis B surface antigen (HBsAg) and e antigen (HBeAg) prevalence data from sequential national serosurveys (1979-2014) and the numbers of HBV-related cancer deaths (2012). We determined whether China can achieve elimination of MTCT of HBV by 2030 under current prevention interventions. We modelled various intervention scenarios to represent different coverage levels of birth-dose HBV vaccination, hepatitis B immunoglobulin to newborns of HBsAg-positive mothers and antiviral therapy (tenofovir) to HBeAg-positive pregnant women. FINDINGS: We project that, if current levels of prevention interventions are maintained, China will achieve the elimination target by 2029. By modelling various intervention scenarios, we found that this can be brought forward to 2025 by increasing coverage of birth-dose vaccination, or to 2024 by the administration of tenofovir to HBeAg-positive pregnant women. We found that achievement of the target by 2025 would be predicted by a measurement of less than 2% MTCT in 2020. CONCLUSION: Our results highlight how high-quality national data can be combined with modelling in monitoring the elimination of MTCT of HBV. By demonstrating the impact of increased interventions on target achievement dates, we anticipate that other high-burden countries will be motivated to strengthen HBV prevention policies. (c) World Health Organization (WHO) 2021. All rights reserved.
Authors: Astrid-Jane Greenup; Pok Kern Tan; Vi Nguyen; Anne Glass; Scott Davison; Ushmi Chatterjee; Susan Holdaway; Dev Samarasinghe; Kathy Jackson; Stephen A Locarnini; Miriam T Levy Journal: J Hepatol Date: 2014-05-05 Impact factor: 25.083
Authors: S K Sarin; M Kumar; G K Lau; Z Abbas; H L Y Chan; C J Chen; D S Chen; H L Chen; P J Chen; R N Chien; A K Dokmeci; Ed Gane; J L Hou; W Jafri; J Jia; J H Kim; C L Lai; H C Lee; S G Lim; C J Liu; S Locarnini; M Al Mahtab; R Mohamed; M Omata; J Park; T Piratvisuth; B C Sharma; J Sollano; F S Wang; L Wei; M F Yuen; S S Zheng; J H Kao Journal: Hepatol Int Date: 2015-11-13 Impact factor: 6.047
Authors: Shu Su; William Cw Wong; Zhuoru Zou; Dan Dan Cheng; Jason J Ong; Polin Chan; Fanpu Ji; Man-Fung Yuen; Guihua Zhuang; Wai-Kay Seto; Lei Zhang Journal: Lancet Glob Health Date: 2022-02 Impact factor: 26.763