Houssein H Ayoub1, Hiam Chemaitelly2,3, Shaheen Seedat2,3,4, Monia Makhoul2,3,4, Zaina Al Kanaani5, Abdullatif Al Khal5, Einas Al Kuwari5, Adeel A Butt4,5, Peter Coyle5, Andrew Jeremijenko5, Anvar Hassan Kaleeckal5, Ali Nizar Latif5, Riyazuddin Mohammad Shaik5, Hanan Abdul Rahim6, Hadi M Yassine7,8, Mohamed G Al Kuwari9, Hamad Eid Al Romaihi10, Mohamed H Al-Thani10, Roberto Bertollini10, Laith J Abu Raddad2,3,4. 1. Department of Mathematics, Statistics, and Physics, Qatar University, Doha, Qatar. 2. Infectious Disease Epidemiology Group, Weill Cornell Medicine-Qatar, Cornell University, Doha, Qatar. 3. World Health Organization Collaborating Centre for Disease Epidemiology Analytics on HIV/AIDS, Sexually Transmitted Infections, and Viral Hepatitis, Weill Cornell Medicine-Qatar, Cornell University, Qatar Foundation - Education City, Doha, Qatar. 4. Department of Population Health Sciences, Weill Cornell Medicine, Cornell University, New York, New York, USA. 5. Hamad Medical Corporation, Doha, Qatar. 6. College of Health Sciences, QU Health, Qatar University, Doha, Qatar. 7. Biomedical Research Center, Qatar University, Doha, Qatar. 8. Department of Biomedical Science, College of Health Sciences, Member of QU Health, Qatar University, Doha, Qatar. 9. Primary Health Care Corporation, Doha, Qatar. 10. Ministry of Public Health, Doha, Qatar.
Abstract
BACKGROUND: Mathematical modeling constitutes an important tool for planning robust responses to epidemics. This study was conducted to guide the Qatari national response to the severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) epidemic. The study investigated the epidemic's time-course, forecasted health care needs, predicted the impact of social and physical distancing restrictions, and rationalized and justified easing of restrictions. METHODS: An age-structured deterministic model was constructed to describe SARS-CoV-2 transmission dynamics and disease progression throughout the population. RESULTS: The enforced social and physical distancing interventions flattened the epidemic curve, reducing the peaks for incidence, prevalence, acute-care hospitalization, and intensive care unit (ICU) hospitalizations by 87%, 86%, 76%, and 78%, respectively. The daily number of new infections was predicted to peak at 12 750 on May 23, and active-infection prevalence was predicted to peak at 3.2% on May 25. Daily acute-care and ICU-care hospital admissions and occupancy were forecast accurately and precisely. By October 15, 2020, the basic reproduction number R0 had varied between 1.07-2.78, and 50.8% of the population were estimated to have been infected (1.43 million infections). The proportion of actual infections diagnosed was estimated at 11.6%. Applying the concept of Rt tuning, gradual easing of restrictions was rationalized and justified to start on June 15, 2020, when Rt declined to 0.7, to buffer the increased interpersonal contact with easing of restrictions and to minimize the risk of a second wave. No second wave has materialized as of October 15, 2020, five months after the epidemic peak. CONCLUSIONS: Use of modeling and forecasting to guide the national response proved to be a successful strategy, reducing the toll of the epidemic to a manageable level for the health care system.
BACKGROUND: Mathematical modeling constitutes an important tool for planning robust responses to epidemics. This study was conducted to guide the Qatari national response to the severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) epidemic. The study investigated the epidemic's time-course, forecasted health care needs, predicted the impact of social and physical distancing restrictions, and rationalized and justified easing of restrictions. METHODS: An age-structured deterministic model was constructed to describe SARS-CoV-2 transmission dynamics and disease progression throughout the population. RESULTS: The enforced social and physical distancing interventions flattened the epidemic curve, reducing the peaks for incidence, prevalence, acute-care hospitalization, and intensive care unit (ICU) hospitalizations by 87%, 86%, 76%, and 78%, respectively. The daily number of new infections was predicted to peak at 12 750 on May 23, and active-infection prevalence was predicted to peak at 3.2% on May 25. Daily acute-care and ICU-care hospital admissions and occupancy were forecast accurately and precisely. By October 15, 2020, the basic reproduction number R0 had varied between 1.07-2.78, and 50.8% of the population were estimated to have been infected (1.43 million infections). The proportion of actual infections diagnosed was estimated at 11.6%. Applying the concept of Rt tuning, gradual easing of restrictions was rationalized and justified to start on June 15, 2020, when Rt declined to 0.7, to buffer the increased interpersonal contact with easing of restrictions and to minimize the risk of a second wave. No second wave has materialized as of October 15, 2020, five months after the epidemic peak. CONCLUSIONS: Use of modeling and forecasting to guide the national response proved to be a successful strategy, reducing the toll of the epidemic to a manageable level for the health care system.
Authors: Daniela Weiskopf; Katharina S Schmitz; Alessandro Sette; Rory D de Vries; Matthijs P Raadsen; Alba Grifoni; Nisreen M A Okba; Henrik Endeman; Johannes P C van den Akker; Richard Molenkamp; Marion P G Koopmans; Eric C M van Gorp; Bart L Haagmans; Rik L de Swart Journal: Sci Immunol Date: 2020-06-26
Authors: Hanan M Al Kuwari; Hanan F Abdul Rahim; Laith J Abu-Raddad; Abdul-Badi Abou-Samra; Zaina Al Kanaani; Abdullatif Al Khal; Einas Al Kuwari; Salih Al Marri; Muna Al Masalmani; Hamad E Al Romaihi; Mohamed H Al Thani; Peter V Coyle; Ali N Latif; Robert Owen; Roberto Bertollini; Adeel Ajwad Butt Journal: BMJ Open Date: 2020-10-07 Impact factor: 2.692
Authors: Laith J Abu-Raddad; Hiam Chemaitelly; Joel A Malek; Ayeda A Ahmed; Yasmin A Mohamoud; Shameem Younuskunju; Houssein H Ayoub; Zaina Al Kanaani; Abdullatif Al Khal; Einas Al Kuwari; Adeel A Butt; Peter Coyle; Andrew Jeremijenko; Anvar Hassan Kaleeckal; Ali Nizar Latif; Riyazuddin Mohammad Shaik; Hanan F Abdul Rahim; Hadi M Yassine; Mohamed G Al Kuwari; Hamad Eid Al Romaihi; Mohamed H Al-Thani; Roberto Bertollini Journal: Clin Infect Dis Date: 2020-12-14 Impact factor: 9.079
Authors: Silvia Stringhini; Ania Wisniak; Giovanni Piumatti; Andrew S Azman; Stephen A Lauer; Hélène Baysson; David De Ridder; Dusan Petrovic; Stephanie Schrempft; Kailing Marcus; Sabine Yerly; Isabelle Arm Vernez; Olivia Keiser; Samia Hurst; Klara M Posfay-Barbe; Didier Trono; Didier Pittet; Laurent Gétaz; François Chappuis; Isabella Eckerle; Nicolas Vuilleumier; Benjamin Meyer; Antoine Flahault; Laurent Kaiser; Idris Guessous Journal: Lancet Date: 2020-06-11 Impact factor: 79.321
Authors: Alba Grifoni; Daniela Weiskopf; Sydney I Ramirez; Jose Mateus; Jennifer M Dan; Carolyn Rydyznski Moderbacher; Stephen A Rawlings; Aaron Sutherland; Lakshmanane Premkumar; Ramesh S Jadi; Daniel Marrama; Aravinda M de Silva; April Frazier; Aaron F Carlin; Jason A Greenbaum; Bjoern Peters; Florian Krammer; Davey M Smith; Shane Crotty; Alessandro Sette Journal: Cell Date: 2020-05-20 Impact factor: 66.850
Authors: Laith J Abu-Raddad; Hiam Chemaitelly; Houssein H Ayoub; Hadi M Yassine; Fatiha M Benslimane; Hebah A Al Khatib; Patrick Tang; Mohammad R Hasan; Peter Coyle; Zaina Al Kanaani; Einas Al Kuwari; Andrew Jeremijenko; Anvar Hassan Kaleeckal; Ali Nizar Latif; Riyazuddin Mohammad Shaik; Hanan F Abdul Rahim; Gheyath K Nasrallah; Mohamed Ghaith Al Kuwari; Adeel A Butt; Hamad Eid Al Romaihi; Mohamed H Al-Thani; Abdullatif Al Khal; Roberto Bertollini Journal: JAMA Date: 2021-11-16 Impact factor: 56.272
Authors: Laith J Abu-Raddad; Soha Dargham; Hiam Chemaitelly; Peter Coyle; Zaina Al Kanaani; Einas Al Kuwari; Adeel A Butt; Andrew Jeremijenko; Anvar Hassan Kaleeckal; Ali Nizar Latif; Riyazuddin Mohammad Shaik; Hanan F Abdul Rahim; Gheyath K Nasrallah; Hadi M Yassine; Mohamed G Al Kuwari; Hamad Eid Al Romaihi; Mohamed H Al-Thani; Abdullatif Al Khal; Roberto Bertollini Journal: PLoS One Date: 2022-07-19 Impact factor: 3.752
Authors: Shimaa S El-Malah; Jayaprakash Saththasivam; Khadeeja Abdul Jabbar; Arun K K; Tricia A Gomez; Ayeda A Ahmed; Yasmin A Mohamoud; Joel A Malek; Laith J Abu Raddad; Hussein A Abu Halaweh; Roberto Bertollini; Jenny Lawler; Khaled A Mahmoud Journal: Environ Technol Innov Date: 2022-06-22
Authors: Mohamed H Al-Thani; Elmoubasher Farag; Roberto Bertollini; Hamad Eid Al Romaihi; Sami Abdeen; Ashraf Abdelkarim; Faisal Daraan; Ahmed Ibrahim Hashim Elhaj Ismail; Nahid Mostafa; Mohamed Sahl; Jinan Suliman; Elias Tayar; Hasan Ali Kasem; Meynard J A Agsalog; Bassam K Akkarathodiyil; Ayat A Alkhalaf; Mohamed Morhaf M H Alakshar; Abdulsalam Ali A H Al-Qahtani; Monther H A Al-Shedifat; Anas Ansari; Ahmad Ali Ataalla; Sandeep Chougule; Abhilash K K V Gopinathan; Feroz J Poolakundan; Sanjay U Ranbhise; Saed M A Saefan; Mohamed M Thaivalappil; Abubacker S Thoyalil; Inayath M Umar; Zaina Al Kanaani; Abdullatif Al Khal; Einas Al Kuwari; Adeel A Butt; Peter Coyle; Andrew Jeremijenko; Anvar Hassan Kaleeckal; Ali Nizar Latif; Riyazuddin Mohammad Shaik; Hanan F Abdul Rahim; Hadi M Yassine; Gheyath K Nasrallah; Mohamed Ghaith Al Kuwari; Odette Chaghoury; Hiam Chemaitelly; Laith J Abu-Raddad Journal: Open Forum Infect Dis Date: 2021-05-02 Impact factor: 3.835
Authors: Laith J Abu-Raddad; Hiam Chemaitelly; Peter Coyle; Joel A Malek; Ayeda A Ahmed; Yasmin A Mohamoud; Shameem Younuskunju; Houssein H Ayoub; Zaina Al Kanaani; Einas Al Kuwari; Adeel A Butt; Andrew Jeremijenko; Anvar Hassan Kaleeckal; Ali Nizar Latif; Riyazuddin Mohammad Shaik; Hanan F Abdul Rahim; Gheyath K Nasrallah; Hadi M Yassine; Mohamed Ghaith Al Kuwari; Hamad Eid Al Romaihi; Mohamed H Al-Thani; Abdullatif Al Khal; Roberto Bertollini Journal: EClinicalMedicine Date: 2021-04-28
Authors: Andrew Jeremijenko; Hiam Chemaitelly; Houssein H Ayoub; Moza Alishaq; Abdul-Badi Abou-Samra; Jameela Ali A A Al Ajmi; Nasser Ali Asad Al Ansari; Zaina Al Kanaani; Abdullatif Al Khal; Einas Al Kuwari; Ahmed Al-Mohammed; Naema Hassan Abdulla Al Molawi; Huda Mohamad Al Naomi; Adeel A Butt; Peter Coyle; Reham Awni El Kahlout; Imtiaz Gillani; Anvar Hassan Kaleeckal; Naseer Ahmad Masoodi; Anil George Thomas; Hanaa Nafady-Hego; Ali Nizar Latif; Riyazuddin Mohammad Shaik; Nourah B M Younes; Hanan F Abdul Rahim; Hadi M Yassine; Mohamed G Al Kuwari; Hamad Eid Al Romaihi; Mohamed H Al-Thani; Roberto Bertollini; Laith J Abu-Raddad Journal: Emerg Infect Dis Date: 2021-05 Impact factor: 6.883
Authors: Laith J Abu-Raddad; Hiam Chemaitelly; Houssein H Ayoub; Zaina Al Kanaani; Abdullatif Al Khal; Einas Al Kuwari; Adeel A Butt; Peter Coyle; Andrew Jeremijenko; Anvar Hassan Kaleeckal; Ali Nizar Latif; Robert C Owen; Hanan F Abdul Rahim; Samya A Al Abdulla; Mohamed G Al Kuwari; Mujeeb C Kandy; Hatoun Saeb; Shazia Nadeem N Ahmed; Hamad Eid Al Romaihi; Devendra Bansal; Louise Dalton; Mohamed H Al-Thani; Roberto Bertollini Journal: Sci Rep Date: 2021-03-18 Impact factor: 4.379
Authors: Laith J Abu-Raddad; Hiam Chemaitelly; Houssein H Ayoub; Peter Coyle; Joel A Malek; Ayeda A Ahmed; Yasmin A Mohamoud; Shameem Younuskunju; Patrick Tang; Zaina Al Kanaani; Einas Al Kuwari; Adeel A Butt; Andrew Jeremijenko; Anvar Hassan Kaleeckal; Ali Nizar Latif; Riyazuddin Mohammad Shaik; Hanan F Abdul Rahim; Gheyath K Nasrallah; Hadi M Yassine; Mohamed Ghaith Al Kuwari; Hamad Eid Al Romaihi; Mohamed H Al-Thani; Abdullatif Al Khal; Roberto Bertollini Journal: PLoS Med Date: 2021-12-16 Impact factor: 11.069
Authors: Houssein H Ayoub; Hiam Chemaitelly; Monia Makhoul; Zaina Al Kanaani; Einas Al Kuwari; Adeel A Butt; Peter Coyle; Andrew Jeremijenko; Anvar Hassan Kaleeckal; Ali Nizar Latif; Riyazuddin Mohammad Shaik; Hanan F Abdul Rahim; Gheyath K Nasrallah; Hadi M Yassine; Mohamed G Al Kuwari; Hamad Eid Al Romaihi; Mohamed H Al-Thani; Roberto Bertollini; Abdullatif Al Khal; Laith J Abu-Raddad Journal: BMJ Innov Date: 2021-03-31