Solene Huynh1, Tu Anh Duong1, Guillaume Lame2, Thomas Hubiche3, Khaled Ezzedine1. 1. Department of Dermatology,, CHU Henri Mondor, 51 avenue du Marechal de Lattre de Tassigny, creteil, FR. 2. Laboratoire de Génie Industriel, Centrale Supelec, Université Paris Saclay, Gif sur yvette, FR. 3. Departement of Dermatology, CHU de Nice, Nice, FR.
Abstract
BACKGROUND: During the COVID-19 pandemic, studies have described Internet searches for SARS-Cov-2 symptoms preceding their validation by the World Health Organization. This suggested that monitoring these searches through tools like Google Trends could help monitor the epidemic itself. In Europe and in North America, an unexpected outbreak of cutaneous acral lesions, e.g., chilblain-like lesions, was noted by dermatologists in April 2020. Some suggested that these symptoms could be tracked on Google Trends to monitor the epidemic. However, external factors such as public communications may also hinder Google Trends's role as an infodemiology tool. OBJECTIVE: The study aimed to assess the impact of media announcements and lockdown enforcement on online searches related to cutaneous acral lesions during the COVID-19 outbreak in 2020. METHODS: Two searches on Google Trends, including daily relative search volumes related to 1/ "toe" or "chilblains" and 2/ "coronavirus" were made from January 1st to May 16th, 2020 for the US, the UK, France, Italy, Spain, and Germany. The ratio of chilblains to coronavirus was plotted. To assess the impact of lockdown and media coverage, interrupted time-series analyses were performed for each country. RESULTS: During that period, the ratio 'chilblains/coronavirus' searches showed a constant upward trend. In France, Italy, and the UK, the lockdown was associated with a significant slope change of chilblain searches with a coefficient value of 1.06 0.42, 1.04 0.28 and, 1.21 0.44 (p<0.01), respectively. After media announcement, a statistically significant increase was found in France, Spain, Italy, and the US with coefficient values of 18.95 5.77, 31.31 6.31, 14.57 6.33, 11.24 4.93 (p<0.01), followed by a statistically significant downward trend in France, Spain, and Italy (p<0.01). Adjusted R2 values were 0.311, 0.351, 0.325, 0.305 in France, Spain, Italy, and the US, in favor of an average correlation between time and search volume. The correlation was weak in Germany and the UK. CONCLUSIONS: To date, chilblain-like lesions' association with COVID-19 remains controversial in the scientific community. In previous studies, Google Trends has been asserted to provide further evidence of that relation. However, chilblain-like queries on Google were highly influenced by mediatization and governmental policies, warranting caution when using Google Trends as a monitoring tool for emerging diseases.
BACKGROUND: During the COVID-19 pandemic, studies have described Internet searches for SARS-Cov-2 symptoms preceding their validation by the World Health Organization. This suggested that monitoring these searches through tools like Google Trends could help monitor the epidemic itself. In Europe and in North America, an unexpected outbreak of cutaneous acral lesions, e.g., chilblain-like lesions, was noted by dermatologists in April 2020. Some suggested that these symptoms could be tracked on Google Trends to monitor the epidemic. However, external factors such as public communications may also hinder Google Trends's role as an infodemiology tool. OBJECTIVE: The study aimed to assess the impact of media announcements and lockdown enforcement on online searches related to cutaneous acral lesions during the COVID-19 outbreak in 2020. METHODS: Two searches on Google Trends, including daily relative search volumes related to 1/ "toe" or "chilblains" and 2/ "coronavirus" were made from January 1st to May 16th, 2020 for the US, the UK, France, Italy, Spain, and Germany. The ratio of chilblains to coronavirus was plotted. To assess the impact of lockdown and media coverage, interrupted time-series analyses were performed for each country. RESULTS: During that period, the ratio 'chilblains/coronavirus' searches showed a constant upward trend. In France, Italy, and the UK, the lockdown was associated with a significant slope change of chilblain searches with a coefficient value of 1.06 0.42, 1.04 0.28 and, 1.21 0.44 (p<0.01), respectively. After media announcement, a statistically significant increase was found in France, Spain, Italy, and the US with coefficient values of 18.95 5.77, 31.31 6.31, 14.57 6.33, 11.24 4.93 (p<0.01), followed by a statistically significant downward trend in France, Spain, and Italy (p<0.01). Adjusted R2 values were 0.311, 0.351, 0.325, 0.305 in France, Spain, Italy, and the US, in favor of an average correlation between time and search volume. The correlation was weak in Germany and the UK. CONCLUSIONS: To date, chilblain-like lesions' association with COVID-19 remains controversial in the scientific community. In previous studies, Google Trends has been asserted to provide further evidence of that relation. However, chilblain-like queries on Google were highly influenced by mediatization and governmental policies, warranting caution when using Google Trends as a monitoring tool for emerging diseases.
Authors: Anna Kłak; Jolanta Grygielska; Małgorzata Mańczak; Ewelina Ejchman-Pac; Jakub Owoc; Urszula Religioni; Robert Olszewski Journal: Int J Environ Res Public Health Date: 2022-01-28 Impact factor: 3.390