Yi Shen1, Shuanghua Xie2, Lei Zhao3, Guohui Song4, Yi Shao1, Changqing Hao5, Chen Niu1, Xiaoli Ruan1, Zhaoping Zang1, Rena Nakyeyune1, Fen Liu1, Wenqiang Wei2. 1. Department of Epidemiology and Health Statistics, School of Public Health, Beijing Municipal Key Laboratory of Clinical Epidemiology, Capital Medical University, Beijing, China. 2. National Central Cancer Registry, National Cancer Center/National Clinical Research Center for Cancer/Cancer Hospital, Chinese Academy of Medical Sciences and Peking Union Medical College, Beijing, China. 3. Department of Molecular Physiology and Biophysics, Holden Comprehensive Cancer Center, University of Iowa Carver College of Medicine, Iowa City, IA, United States. 4. Department of Epidemiology, Cancer Institute/Hospital of Ci County, Handan, China. 5. Department of Endoscopy, Cancer Institute/Hospital of Linzhou, Anyang, China.
Abstract
BACKGROUND: Esophageal squamous cell carcinoma (ESCC) has a high incidence rate and poor prognosis. In this study, we aimed to develop a predictive model to estimate the individualized 5-year absolute risk for ESCC in Chinese populations living in the high-risk areas of China. METHODS: We developed a risk-predicting model based on the epidemiologic data from a population-based case-control study including 244 newly diagnosed ESCC patients and 1,220 healthy controls. Initially, we included easy-to-obtain risk factors to construct the model using the multivariable logistic regression analysis. The area under the ROC curves (AUC) with cross-validation methods was used to evaluate the performance of the model. Combined with local age- and sex-specific ESCC incidence and mortality rates, the model was then used to estimate the absolute risk of developing ESCC within 5 years. RESULTS: A relative risk model was established that included eight factors: age, sex, tobacco smoking, alcohol drinking, education, and dietary habits (intake of hot food, intake of pickled/salted food, and intake of fresh fruit). The relative risk model had good discrimination [AUC, 0.785; 95% confidence interval (CI), 0.749-0.821]. The estimated 5-year absolute risk of ESCC for individuals varied widely, from 0.0003% to 19.72% in the studied population, depending on the exposure to risk factors. CONCLUSIONS: Our model based on readily identifiable risk factors showed good discriminative accuracy and strong robustness. And it could be applied to identify individuals with a higher risk of developing ESCC in the Chinese population, who might benefit from further targeted screening to prevent esophageal cancer.
BACKGROUND: Esophageal squamous cell carcinoma (ESCC) has a high incidence rate and poor prognosis. In this study, we aimed to develop a predictive model to estimate the individualized 5-year absolute risk for ESCC in Chinese populations living in the high-risk areas of China. METHODS: We developed a risk-predicting model based on the epidemiologic data from a population-based case-control study including 244 newly diagnosed ESCC patients and 1,220 healthy controls. Initially, we included easy-to-obtain risk factors to construct the model using the multivariable logistic regression analysis. The area under the ROC curves (AUC) with cross-validation methods was used to evaluate the performance of the model. Combined with local age- and sex-specific ESCC incidence and mortality rates, the model was then used to estimate the absolute risk of developing ESCC within 5 years. RESULTS: A relative risk model was established that included eight factors: age, sex, tobacco smoking, alcohol drinking, education, and dietary habits (intake of hot food, intake of pickled/salted food, and intake of fresh fruit). The relative risk model had good discrimination [AUC, 0.785; 95% confidence interval (CI), 0.749-0.821]. The estimated 5-year absolute risk of ESCC for individuals varied widely, from 0.0003% to 19.72% in the studied population, depending on the exposure to risk factors. CONCLUSIONS: Our model based on readily identifiable risk factors showed good discriminative accuracy and strong robustness. And it could be applied to identify individuals with a higher risk of developing ESCC in the Chinese population, who might benefit from further targeted screening to prevent esophageal cancer.
Authors: Thomas R Fears; DuPont Guerry; Ruth M Pfeiffer; Richard W Sagebiel; David E Elder; Allan Halpern; Elizabeth A Holly; Patricia Hartge; Margaret A Tucker Journal: J Clin Oncol Date: 2006-05-25 Impact factor: 44.544
Authors: Gina D Tran; Xiu-Di Sun; Christian C Abnet; Jin-Hu Fan; Sanford M Dawsey; Zhi-Wei Dong; Steven D Mark; You-Lin Qiao; Philip R Taylor Journal: Int J Cancer Date: 2005-01-20 Impact factor: 7.396
Authors: Freddie Bray; Jacques Ferlay; Isabelle Soerjomataram; Rebecca L Siegel; Lindsey A Torre; Ahmedin Jemal Journal: CA Cancer J Clin Date: 2018-09-12 Impact factor: 508.702
Authors: Huan Yang; Su Zhang; Huijiao Yan; Jianbing Wang; Jinhu Fan; Youlin Qiao; Philip R Taylor Journal: Thorac Cancer Date: 2020-05-29 Impact factor: 3.500