Estimations and projections of Avena fatua dynamics under multiple management scenarios in crop fields using simplified longitudinal monitoring.

Integrated weed management (IWM) is currently the most appropriate and effective method of agricultural weed control. To determine the most effective strategy, it is necessary to compare the effects of different control options and their rotation. Avena fatua (common wild oat) is one of the most common and economically threatening grass weed species of cereal crops worldwide. To examine the effects of non-chemical weed management options (farmland use, delayed sowing, and summer irrigation) on control of A. fatua, we recorded coverage levels and field conditions in 41 sites during the spring growing season of winter wheat for about 10 years. A transition matrix model was then constructed to project coverage levels of A. fatua under each management option using ordinal logistic regression. The results showed that farmland use had a remarkable effect on coverage; notably, planting of paddy rice and vegetables, which respectively eliminated the effect of coverage in the previous year and facilitated rapid convergence of coverage to 0%. Thus, although 90% of fields under continuous wheat cultivation were found to be at risk of A. fatua colonization, the risk was reduced to almost 0% with rotation of effective farmland use. As summer irrigation was also effective, more than 50% of wheat fields with the option continuously converged to no risk for A. fatua colonization. When the different management cycles were repeated, the effects were observed within 3 years, with a steady state reached in less than 10 years. Overall, these results suggest that simplified monitoring data could help decision-making on IWM, thereby helping to improve the efficiency of agricultural production.