Felipe A Montellano1,2, Kathrin Ungethüm1, Laura Ramiro3, Aliona Nacu4, Simon Hellwig5,6, Felix Fluri7,8, William N Whiteley9, Alejandro Bustamante3, Joan Montaner3, Peter U Heuschmann1,10,11. 1. Institute of Clinical Epidemiology and Biometry (F.A.M., K.U., P.U.H.), University of Würzburg, Germany. 2. Interdisciplinary Center for Clinical Research (F.A.M.), Würzburg University Hospital, Germany. 3. Neurovascular Research Laboratory, Vall d'Hebron Institute of Research, Universitat Autònoma de Barcelona, Spain (L.R., A.B., J.M.). 4. Department of Neurology, University of Minnesota, Minneapolis (A.N.). 5. Center for Stroke Research Berlin (S.H.), Charité-Universitätsmedizin Berlin, Germany. 6. Department of Neurology (S.H.), Charité-Universitätsmedizin Berlin, Germany. 7. Department of Neurology (F.F.), Würzburg University Hospital, Germany. 8. Department of Neurology, Kantonsspital St Gallen, Switzerland (F.F.). 9. Centre for Clinical Brain Sciences, University of Edinburgh, United Kingdom (W.N.W.). 10. Comprehensive Heart Failure Center (P.U.H.), University of Würzburg, Germany. 11. Clinical Trial Center (P.U.H.), Würzburg University Hospital, Germany.
Abstract
BACKGROUND AND PURPOSE: Outcome prognostication in ischemic stroke patients remains challenging due to limited predictive properties of existing models. Blood-based biomarkers might provide additional information to established prognostic factors. We intended to identify the most promising prognostic biomarkers in ischemic stroke, their incremental prognostic value, and whether their predictive value differs among etiologies. METHODS: We searched MEDLINE (Ovid) and Institute for Scientific Information Web of Knowledge for articles reporting the predictive performance of blood-based biomarkers measured up to 7 days after ischemic stroke and reporting functional outcome or death at least 7 days after stroke. This work updates a previous systematic review (up to January 2007), follows the Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic Reviews and Meta-Analyses statement and was registered (International Prospective Register of Systematic Reviews PROSPERO 2018; https://www.crd.york.ac.uk/PROSPERO/; Unique identifier: CRD42018094671). RESULTS: Two hundred ninety-one articles published between January 2007 and August 2018 comprising 257 different biomarkers met inclusion criteria. Median sample size was 232 (interquartile range, 110-455); 260 (89%) articles reported regression analyses with 78% adjusting for stroke severity, 82% for age, 67% for both, and 9% for none of them; 37% investigated discrimination, 5% calibration, and 11% reclassification. Including publications from a previous systematic review (1960-January 2007), natriuretic peptides, copeptin, procalcitonin, mannose-binding lectin, adipocyte fatty acid-binding protein, and cortisol were the biomarkers most consistently associated with poor outcome in higher-quality studies showing an incremental value over established prognostic factors. Other biomarkers were less consistently associated with poor outcome or were reported in lower quality studies. High heterogeneity among studies precluded the performance of a meta-analysis. CONCLUSIONS: The number of reports on prognostic blood-based biomarkers in ischemic stroke increased 3.5-fold in the period January 2007 to August 2018. Although sample size increased, methodological flaws are still common. Natriuretic peptides and markers of inflammation, atherogenesis, and stress response are the most promising prognostic biomarkers among identified studies.
BACKGROUND AND PURPOSE: Outcome prognostication in ischemic stroke patients remains challenging due to limited predictive properties of existing models. Blood-based biomarkers might provide additional information to established prognostic factors. We intended to identify the most promising prognostic biomarkers in ischemic stroke, their incremental prognostic value, and whether their predictive value differs among etiologies. METHODS: We searched MEDLINE (Ovid) and Institute for Scientific Information Web of Knowledge for articles reporting the predictive performance of blood-based biomarkers measured up to 7 days after ischemic stroke and reporting functional outcome or death at least 7 days after stroke. This work updates a previous systematic review (up to January 2007), follows the Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic Reviews and Meta-Analyses statement and was registered (International Prospective Register of Systematic Reviews PROSPERO 2018; https://www.crd.york.ac.uk/PROSPERO/; Unique identifier: CRD42018094671). RESULTS: Two hundred ninety-one articles published between January 2007 and August 2018 comprising 257 different biomarkers met inclusion criteria. Median sample size was 232 (interquartile range, 110-455); 260 (89%) articles reported regression analyses with 78% adjusting for stroke severity, 82% for age, 67% for both, and 9% for none of them; 37% investigated discrimination, 5% calibration, and 11% reclassification. Including publications from a previous systematic review (1960-January 2007), natriuretic peptides, copeptin, procalcitonin, mannose-binding lectin, adipocyte fatty acid-binding protein, and cortisol were the biomarkers most consistently associated with poor outcome in higher-quality studies showing an incremental value over established prognostic factors. Other biomarkers were less consistently associated with poor outcome or were reported in lower quality studies. High heterogeneity among studies precluded the performance of a meta-analysis. CONCLUSIONS: The number of reports on prognostic blood-based biomarkers in ischemic stroke increased 3.5-fold in the period January 2007 to August 2018. Although sample size increased, methodological flaws are still common. Natriuretic peptides and markers of inflammation, atherogenesis, and stress response are the most promising prognostic biomarkers among identified studies.
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