| Literature DB >> 33323424 |
Jan M Brauner1,2, Sören Mindermann1, Mrinank Sharma3,4,5, Leonid Chindelevitch6,7, Yarin Gal8, Jan Kulveit2, David Johnston9,10, John Salvatier10, Tomáš Gavenčiak11, Anna B Stephenson12, Gavin Leech13, George Altman14, Vladimir Mikulik15, Alexander John Norman16, Joshua Teperowski Monrad2,17,18, Tamay Besiroglu19, Hong Ge20, Meghan A Hartwick21, Yee Whye Teh4.
Abstract
Governments are attempting to control the COVID-19 pandemic with nonpharmaceutical interventions (NPIs). However, the effectiveness of different NPIs at reducing transmission is poorly understood. We gathered chronological data on the implementation of NPIs for several European and non-European countries between January and the end of May 2020. We estimated the effectiveness of these NPIs, which range from limiting gathering sizes and closing businesses or educational institutions to stay-at-home orders. To do so, we used a Bayesian hierarchical model that links NPI implementation dates to national case and death counts and supported the results with extensive empirical validation. Closing all educational institutions, limiting gatherings to 10 people or less, and closing face-to-face businesses each reduced transmission considerably. The additional effect of stay-at-home orders was comparatively small.Entities:
Mesh：
Year: 2020 PMID： 33323424 PMCID： PMC7877495 DOI： 10.1126/science.abd9338
Source DB: PubMed Journal: Science ISSN： 0036-8075 Impact factor: 47.728