Yingnan Liu1, YuChun Zhu1, Yu Liu1, Minghui Liu1, Yueyi Zhang1, Jun Chen1, Huixia Yang1,2. 1. Department of Obstetrics and Gynecology, Peking University First Hospital, Peking University, Beijing, China. 2. Beijing Key Laboratory of Maternal-Fetal Medicine of Gestational Diabetes Mellitus, Beijing, China.
Abstract
OBJECTIVES: This study investigated the potential factors that predict the risk of preterm birth (PTB) in pregnancies with a short cervix. These factors were used to create nomogram, which might be highly sensitive tools to predict the incidence of PTB. METHODS: This retrospective cohort study enrolled pregnancies with a short cervix from 1 January 2017 to 1 January 2018. The primary outcomes were preterm birth <37 and 34 weeks. Logistic regression model was used to identify potential predictors of PTB. The identified risk factors were used to establish nomograms, which were validated using the receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve and calibration curve. RESULTS: In the multivariate analysis, overweight or obesity, parity ≧3 times, twin pregnancy, in vitro fertilization and embryo transfer (IVF-ET), gestational age at first observation of short cervix, cervical length (CL) at first observation of short cervix, history of PTB, and autoimmune disease were found to be predictors of PTB <37 weeks, while twin pregnancy, gestational age at first observation of short cervix, CL of short cervix, history of PTB, and prepregnancy hypertension were predictors of PTB <34 weeks. The area under the ROC curve of the nomogram predicting PTB <37 weeks and PTB <34 weeks were 0.803 and 0.771, respectively. Both models showed good discrimination. CONCLUSIONS: Gestational age at first observation of short cervix, CL of short cervix and other factors are strong predictors of PTB in pregnancies with a short cervix. Both nomograms showed good discrimination and calibration, and hence might be effective in predicting PTB for this population.
OBJECTIVES: This study investigated the potential factors that predict the risk of preterm birth (PTB) in pregnancies with a short cervix. These factors were used to create nomogram, which might be highly sensitive tools to predict the incidence of PTB. METHODS: This retrospective cohort study enrolled pregnancies with a short cervix from 1 January 2017 to 1 January 2018. The primary outcomes were preterm birth <37 and 34 weeks. Logistic regression model was used to identify potential predictors of PTB. The identified risk factors were used to establish nomograms, which were validated using the receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve and calibration curve. RESULTS: In the multivariate analysis, overweight or obesity, parity ≧3 times, twin pregnancy, in vitro fertilization and embryo transfer (IVF-ET), gestational age at first observation of short cervix, cervical length (CL) at first observation of short cervix, history of PTB, and autoimmune disease were found to be predictors of PTB <37 weeks, while twin pregnancy, gestational age at first observation of short cervix, CL of short cervix, history of PTB, and prepregnancy hypertension were predictors of PTB <34 weeks. The area under the ROC curve of the nomogram predicting PTB <37 weeks and PTB <34 weeks were 0.803 and 0.771, respectively. Both models showed good discrimination. CONCLUSIONS: Gestational age at first observation of short cervix, CL of short cervix and other factors are strong predictors of PTB in pregnancies with a short cervix. Both nomograms showed good discrimination and calibration, and hence might be effective in predicting PTB for this population.
Entities:
Keywords:
Nomogram; preterm birth; risk factors; short cervix