| Literature DB >> 33286052 |
Haixia Zheng1, Yongchuan Tang1.
Abstract
Failure mode and effects analysis (FMEA), as a commonly used risk management method, has been extensively applied to the engineering domain. A vital parameter in FMEA is the risk priority number (RPN), which is the product of occurrence (O), severity (S), and detection (D) of a failure mode. To deal with the uncertainty in the assessments given by domain experts, a novel Deng entropy weighted risk priority number (DEWRPN) for FMEA is proposed in the framework of Dempster-Shafer evidence theory (DST). DEWRPN takes into consideration the relative importance in both risk factors and FMEA experts. The uncertain degree of objective assessments coming from experts are measured by the Deng entropy. An expert's weight is comprised of the three risk factors' weights obtained independently from expert's assessments. In DEWRPN, the strategy of assigning weight for each expert is flexible and compatible to the real decision-making situation. The entropy-based relative weight symbolizes the relative importance. In detail, the higher the uncertain degree of a risk factor from an expert is, the lower the weight of the corresponding risk factor will be and vice versa. We utilize Deng entropy to construct the exponential weight of each risk factor as well as an expert's relative importance on an FMEA item in a state-of-the-art way. A case study is adopted to verify the practicability and effectiveness of the proposed model.Entities:
Keywords: Dempster–Shafer evidence theory (DST); Deng entropy; failure mode and effects analysis (FMEA); risk priority number (RPN); uncertainty management
Year: 2020 PMID: 33286052 PMCID: PMC7516733 DOI: 10.3390/e22030280
Source DB: PubMed Journal: Entropy (Basel) ISSN: 1099-4300 Impact factor: 2.524
Figure 1The flowchart of failure mode and effects analysis (FMEA).
Suggested criteria of rating for occurrence of a failure in FMEA.
| Rating | Probability of Occurrence | Possible Failure Rate |
|---|---|---|
| 10 | Extremely high (almost inevitable) | ≥0.500 |
| 9 | Very high | 0.3333 |
| 8 | Repeated failure | 0.1250 |
| 7 | High | 0.0500 |
| 6 | Moderately high | 0.0125 |
| 5 | Moderate | 0.0025 |
| 4 | Relatively low | 0.0005 |
| 3 | Low | 0.0000667 |
| 2 | Remote | 0.0000067 |
| 1 | Nearly impossible | ≤0.0000066 |
Figure 2The flowchart of Deng entropy weighted risk priority number (DEWRPN) model for FMEA.
The FMEA of the sheet steel production process in Guilan steel factory.
| No. | Failure Mode (FM) | Cause of Failure |
|---|---|---|
|
| Nonacceptable formation | Noncondective scrap |
|
| Nipple thread pitted | Proper coverage not obtained |
|
| Arc formation loss | Leakage of water, proper gripping loss |
|
| Burn-out electrode | Cooler not working properly |
|
| Breaking of house of pipe | Wearing of pipe due to use |
|
| Problem in movement of arm | Sever leakage |
|
| Refractory damage | Due to slag |
|
| Formation of steam | Roof leak |
|
| Refractory line damage | By hot gas |
|
| Movement of roof stop | Jam of plunger in unloader valve |
Group belief structure judgment of the sheet steel production process.
| FMs | Experts | Severity | Occurrence | Detectability |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
|
| (0.8, 0.1, 0.1) | (0.1, 0.2, 0.7) | (0.2, 0.5, 0.3) |
|
| (0.7, 0.0, 0.3) | (0.0, 0.4, 0.6) | (0.3, 0.4, 0.3) | |
|
| (0.8, 0.2, 0.0) | (0.1, 0.4, 0.5) | (0.2, 0.5, 0.3) | |
|
|
| (0.7, 0.1, 0.2) | (0.1, 0.2, 0.7) | (0.8, 0.1, 0.1) |
|
| (0.7, 0.0, 0.3) | (0.0, 0.4, 0.6) | (0.7, 0.0, 0.3) | |
|
| (0.6, 0.4, 0.0) | (0.1, 0.4, 0.5) | (0.8, 0.2, 0.0) | |
|
|
| (0.8, 0.1, 0.1) | (0.0, 0.1, 0.9) | (0.2, 0.5, 0.3) |
|
| (0.9, 0.0, 0.0) | (0.0, 0.2, 0.8) | (0.3, 0.4, 0.3) | |
|
| (0.7, 0.3, 0.0) | (0.1, 0.0, 0.9) | (0.2, 0.5, 0.3) | |
|
|
| (0.4, 0.4, 0.2) | (0.0, 0.1, 0.9) | (0.1, 0.2, 0.7) |
|
| (0.3, 0.5, 0.2) | (0.0, 0.2, 0.8) | (0.0, 0.4, 0.6) | |
|
| (0.4, 0.4, 0.2) | (0.1, 0.0, 0.9) | (0.1, 0.4, 0.5) | |
|
|
| (0.4, 0.4, 0.2) | (0.2, 0.4, 0.4) | (0.7, 0.0, 0.3) |
|
| (0.3, 0.5, 0.2) | (0.2, 0.4, 0.4) | (0.8, 0.2, 0.0) | |
|
| (0.4, 0.4, 0.2) | (0.1, 0.5, 0.4) | (0.6, 0.3, 0.1) | |
|
|
| (0.4, 0.4, 0.2) | (0.2, 0.4, 0.4) | (0.7, 0.0, 0.3) |
|
| (0.3, 0.5, 0.2) | (0.2, 0.4, 0.4) | (0.8, 0.2, 0.0) | |
|
| (0.4, 0.4, 0.2) | (0.1, 0.5, 0.4) | (0.6, 0.3, 0.1) | |
|
|
| (0.4, 0.4, 0.2) | (0.2, 0.4, 0.4) | (0.1, 0.2, 0.7) |
|
| (0.5, 0.5, 0.0) | (0.2, 0.4, 0.4) | (0.0, 0.4, 0.6) | |
|
| (0.6, 0.4, 0.0) | (0.1, 0.5, 0.4) | (0.1, 0.4, 0.5) | |
|
|
| (0.8, 0.1, 0.1) | (0.0, 0.1, 0.9) | (0.2, 0.5, 0.3) |
|
| (0.9, 0.0, 0.0) | (0.0, 0.2, 0.8) | (0.3, 0.4, 0.3) | |
|
| (0.7, 0.3, 0.0) | (0.1, 0.0, 0.9) | (0.2, 0.5, 0.3) | |
|
|
| (0.4, 0.4, 0.2) | (0.2, 0.4, 0.4) | (0.7, 0.0, 0.3) |
|
| (0.3, 0.5, 0.2) | (0.2, 0.4, 0.4) | (0.8, 0.2, 0.0) | |
|
| (0.4, 0.4, 0.2) | (0.1, 0.5, 0.4) | (0.6, 0.3, 0.1) | |
|
|
| (0.7, 0.0, 0.3) | (0.2, 0.4, 0.4) | (0.2, 0.5, 0.3) |
|
| (0.8, 0.2, 0.0) | (0.4, 0.0, 0.6) | (0.3, 0.4, 0.3) | |
|
| (0.6, 0.3, 0.1) | (0.4, 0.0, 0.6) | (0.2, 0.5, 0.3) |
DE and aggregated rating values of each expert for .
|
| Expert 1 | Expert 2 | Expert 3 |
|---|---|---|---|
|
|
|
|
|
| Rating |
|
|
|
DEWRPN values and risk priority ranking.
| NO. |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DEWRPN |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| Rank | 5 | 6 | 2 | 1 | 8 | 9 | 4 | 3 | 10 | 7 |
Figure 3The ranking of failure modes based on the proposed method in comparison with existing methods.
Figure 4The RPN values generated by the proposed method in comparison with that of [59].