Pol Rovira1, Carolin Kilian2, Maria Neufeld2,3,4, Harriet Rumgay5, Isabelle Soerjomataram5, Carina Ferreira-Borges3, Kevin D Shield4,6, Bundit Sornpaisarn4,6,7, Jürgen Rehm8,9,10,11,12,13,14. 1. Program on Substance Abuse, Public Health Agency of Catalonia, Barcelona, Spain. 2. Institute of Clinical Psychology and Psychotherapy & Center for Clinical Epidemiology and Longitudinal Studies, Technische Universität Dresden, Dresden, Germany. 3. WHO European Office for Prevention and Control of Noncommunicable Diseases, Moscow, Russian Federation. 4. Institute for Mental Health Policy Research, Centre for Addiction and Mental Health (CAMH), Toronto, Ontario, Canada. 5. Section of Cancer Surveillance, International Agency for Cancer Research, Lyon, France. 6. Dalla Lana School of Public Health, University of Toronto, Toronto, Ontario, Canada. 7. Faculty of Public Health, Mahidol University, Bangkok, Thailand. 8. Program on Substance Abuse, Public Health Agency of Catalonia, Barcelona, Spain, jtrehm@gmail.com. 9. Institute of Clinical Psychology and Psychotherapy & Center for Clinical Epidemiology and Longitudinal Studies, Technische Universität Dresden, Dresden, Germany, jtrehm@gmail.com. 10. Institute for Mental Health Policy Research, Centre for Addiction and Mental Health (CAMH), Toronto, Ontario, Canada, jtrehm@gmail.com. 11. Dalla Lana School of Public Health, University of Toronto, Toronto, Ontario, Canada, jtrehm@gmail.com. 12. Campbell Family Mental Health Research Institute, CAMH, Toronto, Ontario, Canada, jtrehm@gmail.com. 13. Department of Psychiatry, University of Toronto, Toronto, Ontario, Canada, jtrehm@gmail.com. 14. Department of International Health Projects, Institute for Leadership and Health Management, I.M. Sechenov First Moscow State Medical University, Moscow, Russian Federation, jtrehm@gmail.com.
Abstract
INTRODUCTION: Prevention of cancer has been identified as a major public health priority for Europe, and alcohol is a leading risk factor for various types of cancer. This contribution estimates the number of cancer cases that could have potentially been averted in 2018 in 4 European countries if an increase in alcohol excise taxation had been applied. METHODS: Current country and beverage-specific excise taxation of 4 member states of the WHO European Region (Germany, Italy, Kazakhstan, and Sweden) was used as a baseline, and the potential impacts of increases of 20, 50, and 100% to current excise duties were modelled. A sensitivity analysis was performed, replacing the current tax rates in the 4 countries by those levied in Finland. The resulting increase in tax was assumed to be fully incorporated into the consumer price, and beverage-specific price elasticities of demand were obtained from meta-analyses, assuming less elasticity for heavy drinkers. Model estimates were applied to cancer incidence rates for the year 2018. RESULTS: In the 4 countries, >35,000 cancer cases in 2018 were caused by alcohol consumption, with the highest rate of alcohol-attributable cancers recorded in Germany and the lowest in Sweden. An increase in excise duties on alcohol would have significantly reduced these numbers, with between 3 and 7% of all alcohol-attributable cancer cases being averted if taxation had been increased by 100%. If the 4 countries were to adopt an excise taxation level equivalent to the one currently imposed in Finland, an even higher proportion of alcohol-attributable cancers could be avoided, with Germany alone experiencing 1,600 fewer cancer cases in 1 year. DISCUSSION/ CONCLUSION: Increasing excise duties can markedly reduce cancer incidence in European countries.
INTRODUCTION: Prevention of cancer has been identified as a major public health priority for Europe, and alcohol is a leading risk factor for various types of cancer. This contribution estimates the number of cancer cases that could have potentially been averted in 2018 in 4 European countries if an increase in alcohol excise taxation had been applied. METHODS: Current country and beverage-specific excise taxation of 4 member states of the WHO European Region (Germany, Italy, Kazakhstan, and Sweden) was used as a baseline, and the potential impacts of increases of 20, 50, and 100% to current excise duties were modelled. A sensitivity analysis was performed, replacing the current tax rates in the 4 countries by those levied in Finland. The resulting increase in tax was assumed to be fully incorporated into the consumer price, and beverage-specific price elasticities of demand were obtained from meta-analyses, assuming less elasticity for heavy drinkers. Model estimates were applied to cancer incidence rates for the year 2018. RESULTS: In the 4 countries, >35,000 cancer cases in 2018 were caused by alcohol consumption, with the highest rate of alcohol-attributable cancers recorded in Germany and the lowest in Sweden. An increase in excise duties on alcohol would have significantly reduced these numbers, with between 3 and 7% of all alcohol-attributable cancer cases being averted if taxation had been increased by 100%. If the 4 countries were to adopt an excise taxation level equivalent to the one currently imposed in Finland, an even higher proportion of alcohol-attributable cancers could be avoided, with Germany alone experiencing 1,600 fewer cancer cases in 1 year. DISCUSSION/ CONCLUSION: Increasing excise duties can markedly reduce cancer incidence in European countries.
Authors: Kevin Shield; Jakob Manthey; Margaret Rylett; Charlotte Probst; Ashley Wettlaufer; Charles D H Parry; Jürgen Rehm Journal: Lancet Public Health Date: 2020-01
Authors: Jakob Manthey; Kevin D Shield; Margaret Rylett; Omer S M Hasan; Charlotte Probst; Jürgen Rehm Journal: Lancet Date: 2019-05-07 Impact factor: 79.321
Authors: Yang Meng; Alan Brennan; Robin Purshouse; Daniel Hill-McManus; Colin Angus; John Holmes; Petra Sylvia Meier Journal: J Health Econ Date: 2014-01-19 Impact factor: 3.883
Authors: Carolin Kilian; Jakob Manthey; Charlotte Probst; Geir S Brunborg; Elin K Bye; Ola Ekholm; Ludwig Kraus; Jacek Moskalewicz; Janusz Sieroslawski; Jürgen Rehm Journal: Alcohol Alcohol Date: 2020-08-14 Impact factor: 2.826
Authors: Maria Neufeld; Anastacia Bobrova; Kairat Davletov; Mindaugas Štelemėkas; Relika Stoppel; Carina Ferreira-Borges; João Breda; Jürgen Rehm Journal: Drug Alcohol Rev Date: 2020-11-05
Authors: Alexander Tran; Huan Jiang; Kawon Victoria Kim; Robin Room; Mindaugas Štelemėkas; Shannon Lange; Pol Rovira; Jürgen Rehm Journal: Alcohol Alcohol Date: 2022-07-09 Impact factor: 3.913
Authors: Pol Rovira; Gražina Belian; Carina Ferreira-Borges; Carolin Kilian; Maria Neufeld; Alexander Tran; Mindaugas Štelemėkas; Jürgen Rehm Journal: Nordisk Alkohol Nark Date: 2021-06-28
Authors: Carolin Kilian; Pol Rovira; Maria Neufeld; Jakob Manthey; Jürgen Rehm Journal: Bundesgesundheitsblatt Gesundheitsforschung Gesundheitsschutz Date: 2022-04-19 Impact factor: 1.595