OBJECTIVES: To assess the risks associated with relaxing coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19)-related physical distancing restrictions and lockdown policies during a period of low viral transmission. DESIGN: Network-based viral transmission risks in households, schools, workplaces, and a variety of community spaces and activities were simulated in an agent-based model, Covasim. SETTING: The model was calibrated for a baseline scenario reflecting the epidemiological and policy environment in Victoria during March-May 2020, a period of low community viral transmission. INTERVENTION: Policy changes for easing COVID-19-related restrictions from May 2020 were simulated in the context of interventions that included testing, contact tracing (including with a smartphone app), and quarantine. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURE: Increase in detected COVID-19 cases following relaxation of restrictions. RESULTS: Policy changes that facilitate contact of individuals with large numbers of unknown people (eg, opening bars, increased public transport use) were associated with the greatest risk of COVID-19 case numbers increasing; changes leading to smaller, structured gatherings with known contacts (eg, small social gatherings, opening schools) were associated with lower risks. In our model, the rise in case numbers following some policy changes was notable only two months after their implementation. CONCLUSIONS: Removing several COVID-19-related restrictions within a short period of time should be undertaken with care, as the consequences may not be apparent for more than two months. Our findings support continuation of work from home policies (to reduce public transport use) and strategies that mitigate the risk associated with re-opening of social venues.
OBJECTIVES: To assess the risks associated with relaxing coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19)-related physical distancing restrictions and lockdown policies during a period of low viral transmission. DESIGN: Network-based viral transmission risks in households, schools, workplaces, and a variety of community spaces and activities were simulated in an agent-based model, Covasim. SETTING: The model was calibrated for a baseline scenario reflecting the epidemiological and policy environment in Victoria during March-May 2020, a period of low community viral transmission. INTERVENTION: Policy changes for easing COVID-19-related restrictions from May 2020 were simulated in the context of interventions that included testing, contact tracing (including with a smartphone app), and quarantine. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURE: Increase in detected COVID-19 cases following relaxation of restrictions. RESULTS: Policy changes that facilitate contact of individuals with large numbers of unknown people (eg, opening bars, increased public transport use) were associated with the greatest risk of COVID-19 case numbers increasing; changes leading to smaller, structured gatherings with known contacts (eg, small social gatherings, opening schools) were associated with lower risks. In our model, the rise in case numbers following some policy changes was notable only two months after their implementation. CONCLUSIONS: Removing several COVID-19-related restrictions within a short period of time should be undertaken with care, as the consequences may not be apparent for more than two months. Our findings support continuation of work from home policies (to reduce public transport use) and strategies that mitigate the risk associated with re-opening of social venues.
Authors: Adam J Kucharski; Petra Klepac; Andrew J K Conlan; Stephen M Kissler; Maria L Tang; Hannah Fry; Julia R Gog; W John Edmunds Journal: Lancet Infect Dis Date: 2020-06-16 Impact factor: 25.071
Authors: Alberto Aleta; David Martín-Corral; Ana Pastore Y Piontti; Marco Ajelli; Maria Litvinova; Matteo Chinazzi; Natalie E Dean; M Elizabeth Halloran; Ira M Longini; Stefano Merler; Alex Pentland; Alessandro Vespignani; Esteban Moro; Yamir Moreno Journal: Nat Hum Behav Date: 2020-08-05
Authors: David J Price; Freya M Shearer; Michael T Meehan; Emma McBryde; Robert Moss; Nick Golding; Eamon J Conway; Peter Dawson; Deborah Cromer; James Wood; Sam Abbott; Jodie McVernon; James M McCaw Journal: Elife Date: 2020-08-13 Impact factor: 8.140
Authors: Joel R Koo; Alex R Cook; Minah Park; Yinxiaohe Sun; Haoyang Sun; Jue Tao Lim; Clarence Tam; Borame L Dickens Journal: Lancet Infect Dis Date: 2020-03-23 Impact factor: 25.071
Authors: Robert Moss; James Wood; Damien Brown; Freya M Shearer; Andrew J Black; Kathryn Glass; Allen C Cheng; James M McCaw; Jodie McVernon Journal: Emerg Infect Dis Date: 2020-09-28 Impact factor: 6.883
Authors: Cliff C Kerr; Robyn M Stuart; Dina Mistry; Romesh G Abeysuriya; Katherine Rosenfeld; Gregory R Hart; Rafael C Núñez; Jamie A Cohen; Prashanth Selvaraj; Brittany Hagedorn; Lauren George; Michał Jastrzębski; Amanda S Izzo; Greer Fowler; Anna Palmer; Dominic Delport; Nick Scott; Sherrie L Kelly; Caroline S Bennette; Bradley G Wagner; Stewart T Chang; Assaf P Oron; Edward A Wenger; Jasmina Panovska-Griffiths; Michael Famulare; Daniel J Klein Journal: PLoS Comput Biol Date: 2021-07-26 Impact factor: 4.475
Authors: Adeshina Adekunle; Michael Meehan; Diana Rojas-Alvarez; James Trauer; Emma McBryde Journal: Aust N Z J Public Health Date: 2020-07-22 Impact factor: 3.755
Authors: Valerie Hongoh; David Maybury; Jérôme Levesque; Aamir Fazil; Ainsley Otten; Patricia Turgeon; Lisa Waddell; Nicholas H Ogden Journal: Can Commun Dis Rep Date: 2021-11-10
Authors: Andrew J Shattock; Epke A Le Rutte; Robert P Dünner; Swapnoleena Sen; Sherrie L Kelly; Nakul Chitnis; Melissa A Penny Journal: Epidemics Date: 2021-12-14 Impact factor: 4.396
Authors: Margaret Hellard; Nick Scott; Romesh G Abeysuriya; Dominic Delport; Robyn M Stuart; Rachel Sacks-Davis; Cliff C Kerr; Dina Mistry; Daniel J Klein Journal: BMC Infect Dis Date: 2022-03-07 Impact factor: 3.090
Authors: Megan A S Penno; Amanda J Anderson; Rebecca L Thomson; Kelly McGorm; Simon C Barry; Peter G Colman; Maria E Craig; Elizabeth A Davis; Mark Harris; Aveni Haynes; Grant Morahan; Helena Oakey; William D Rawlinson; Richard O Sinnott; Georgia Soldatos; Peter J Vuillermin; John M Wentworth; Leonard C Harrison; Jennifer J Couper Journal: Diabet Med Date: 2021-07-19 Impact factor: 4.213
Authors: Kevin Jenniskens; Martin C J Bootsma; Johanna A A G Damen; Michiel S Oerbekke; Robin W M Vernooij; René Spijker; Karel G M Moons; Mirjam E E Kretzschmar; Lotty Hooft Journal: BMJ Open Date: 2021-07-12 Impact factor: 2.692