| Literature DB >> 33194683 |
Jun Lu1,2,3,4, Bin-Bin Xu1,2,3,4, Chao-Hui Zheng1,2,3,4, Ping Li1,2,3,4, Jian-Wei Xie1,2,3,4, Jia-Bin Wang1,2,3,4, Jian-Xian Lin1,2,3,4, Qi-Yue Chen1,2,3,4, Mark J Truty5, Chang-Ming Huang1,2,3,4.
Abstract
Background: The benefit of adjuvant chemotherapy varies widely among patients with stage II/III gastric cancer (GC), and tools predicting outcomes for this patient subset are lacking. We aimed to develop and validate a nomogram to predict recurrence-free survival (RFS) and the benefits of adjuvant chemotherapy after radical resection in patients with stage II/III GC.Entities:
Keywords: adjuvant chemotherapy benefit; gastric cancer; nomogram; recurrence patterns; web-based tool
Year: 2020 PMID: 33194683 PMCID: PMC7643002 DOI: 10.3389/fonc.2020.574611
Source DB: PubMed Journal: Front Oncol ISSN: 2234-943X Impact factor: 6.244
Patient and tumor characteristics in the training and validation cohorts.
| FMUUH, | FMUUH, | Mayo clinic, | |||
| Age, mean years (SD) | 61.5 (11.2) | 60.4 (11.9) | 0.147 | 68.3 (15.8) | <0.001 |
| Tumor size, mean mm (SD) | 51.1 (24.2) | 52.4 (25.5) | 0.397 | 67.0 (37.3) | <0.001 |
| Examined LNs, mean No (SD) | 36.9 (13.6) | 36.9 (14.6) | 0.999 | 25.2 (15.6) | <0.001 |
| Sex | 0.127 | <0.001 | |||
| Female | 304 (24.5) | 88 (28.8) | 48 (43.2) | ||
| Male | 936 (75.5) | 218 (71.2) | 63 (56.8) | ||
| Tumor location | 0.801 | 0.011 | |||
| Lower | 474 (38.2) | 120 (39.2) | 42 (37.8) | ||
| Middle | 278 (22.4) | 61 (19.9) | 36 (32.4) | ||
| Upper | 316 (25.5) | 79 (25.8) | 28 (25.2) | ||
| Mix | 172 (13.9) | 46 (15.0) | 5 (4.5) | ||
| Differentiation | 0.910 | <0.001 | |||
| Well | 56 (4.5) | 14 (4.6) | 0 (0.0) | ||
| Moderate | 446 (36.0) | 106 (34.6) | 11 (9.9) | ||
| Poor | 738 (59.5) | 186 (60.8) | 100 (90.1) | ||
| Lymphovascular invasion | 0.493 | NA | |||
| Absent | 804 (64.8) | 192 (62.7) | 0 (0.0) | ||
| Present | 436 (35.2) | 114 (37.3) | 0 (0.0) | ||
| Unknown | NA | NA | 111 (100.0) | ||
| Adjuvant chemotherapy | 0.537 | <0.001 | |||
| Absent | 288 (23.2) | 66 (21.6) | 71 (64.0) | ||
| Present | 952 (76.8) | 240 (78.4) | 40 (36.0) | ||
| pT stage | 0.659 | 0.003 | |||
| T1 | 24 (1.9) | 8 (2.6) | 2 (1.8) | ||
| T2 | 101 (8.1) | 29 (9.5) | 11 (9.9) | ||
| T3 | 572 (46.1) | 144 (47.1) | 64 (57.7) | ||
| T4a | 515 (41.5) | 121 (39.5) | 27 (24.3) | ||
| T4b | 28 (2.3) | 4 (1.3) | 7 (6.3) | ||
| pN stage | 0.113 | 0.028 | |||
| N0 | 195 (15.7) | 43 (14.1) | 30 (27.0) | ||
| N1 | 233 (18.8) | 49 (16.0) | 23 (20.7) | ||
| N2 | 285 (23.0) | 92 (30.1) | 20 (18.0) | ||
| N3a | 322 (26.0) | 79 (25.8) | 24 (21.6) | ||
| N3b | 205 (16.5) | 43 (14.1) | 14 (12.6) | ||
| pTNM stage | 0.493 | 0.031 | |||
| II | 804 (64.8) | 192 (62.7) | 49 (44.1) | ||
| III | 436 (35.2) | 114 (37.3) | 62 (55.9) |
Continuous data represented as mean ± SD and categorical data as n (%).
Compared with the training cohort.
Unavailable for the external validation cohort. FMUUH indicates Fujian Medical University Union Hospital; LN, lymph node; NA, not applicable.
Univariable and multivariable analyses of factors associated with recurrence-free survival.
| Age | 1.012 | 1.004–1.020 | 0.005 | 1.009 | 1.001–1.018 | 0.034 |
| Tumor size | 1.014 | 1.011–1.017 | <0.001 | 1.005 | 1.002–1.009 | 0.003 |
| Examined LNs | 0.998 | 0.992–1.005 | 0.646 | 0.984 | 0.977–0.991 | <0.001 |
| Female sex vs. male | 1.059 | 0.863–1.299 | 0.584 | |||
| Tumor location | ||||||
| Lower | 1.000 | – | ||||
| Middle | 1.258 | 0.993–1.592 | 0.057 | – | – | 0.446 |
| Upper | 1.069 | 0.845–1.353 | 0.578 | – | – | 0.892 |
| Mix | 1.660 | 1.280–2.152 | <0.001 | – | – | 0.865 |
| Histologic type | ||||||
| Well | 1.000 | 1.000 | ||||
| Moderate | 3.145 | 1.475–6.707 | 0.003 | 3.037 | 1.419–6.502 | 0.004 |
| Poor | 4.454 | 2.107–9.418 | <0.001 | 3.051 | 1.436–6.484 | 0.004 |
| Lymphovascular invasion | 1.502 | 1.255–1.798 | <0.001 | – | – | 0.873 |
| Nerve invasion | 1.319 | 1.085–1.604 | 0.005 | – | – | 0.907 |
| Adjuvant chemotherapy | 0.745 | 0.610–0.911 | 0.004 | 0.625 | 0.505–0.775 | <0.001 |
| CEA ≥ 5 vs. > 5 ng/mL | 1.287 | 1.060–1.563 | 0.011 | – | – | 0.455 |
| CA19-9 ≥ 37 vs. <37 ng/mL | 1.383 | 1.115–1.717 | 0.003 | – | – | 0.315 |
| pT stage | ||||||
| T1 | 1.000 | 1.000 | ||||
| T2 | 0.891 | 0.333–2.387 | 0.819 | 1.024 | 0.378–2.777 | 0.962 |
| T3 | 1.646 | 0.677–4.005 | 0.272 | 1.465 | 0.596–3.603 | 0.406 |
| T4a | 3.451 | 1.424–8.359 | 0.006 | 2.427 | 0.988–5.958 | 0.053 |
| T4b | 4.655 | 1.705–12.712 | 0.003 | 2.775 | 1.002–7.684 | 0.049 |
| pN stage | ||||||
| N0 | 1.000 | 1.000 | ||||
| N1 | 1.607 | 1.014–2.549 | 0.044 | 1.856 | 1.162–2.963 | 0.010 |
| N2 | 2.411 | 1.576–3.686 | <0.001 | 2.509 | 1.634–3.854 | <0.001 |
| N3a | 5.573 | 3.740–8.305 | <0.001 | 5.373 | 3.582–8.061 | <0.001 |
| N3b | 8.976 | 5.975–13.484 | <0.001 | 9.005 | 5.858–13.843 | <0.001 |
Present vs. absent. CEA, carcinoembryonic antigen; CA, cancer antigen.
Figure 1Nomogram for predicting 1-, 3-, and 5-year RFS after radical gastrectomy for stage II/III gastric adenocarcinoma.
Figure 2Nomogram properties. Calibration (A,C), ROC curves (B,D), and decision curves (E,F) of the nomogram for the training (A,B,E) and validation cohorts (C,D,F).
Comparison of the prognostic accuracies of the nomogram and the 8th AJCC-TNM.
| RFS | C-index (95% CI) | 0.774 (0.753–0.794) | 0.707 (0.685–0.729) | <0.001 |
| AIC | 6,201.097 | 6,419.61 | – | |
| OS | C-index (95% CI) | 0.766 (0.747–0.785) | 0.700 (0.680–0.620) | <0.001 |
| AIC | 7,377.636 | 7,623.727 | – | |
| RFS | C-index (95% CI) | 0.770 (0.730–0.810) | 0.732 (0.693–0.770) | 0.013 |
| AIC | 1,249.137 | 1,267.904 | – | |
| OS | C-index (95% CI) | 0.781 (0.742–0.821) | 0.735 (0.696–0.775) | <0.001 |
| AIC | 1,209.733 | 1,236.066 | – | |
| RFS | C-index (95% CI) | 0.686 (0.609–0.763) | 0.596 (0.510–0.684) | <0.001 |
| AIC | 388.265 | 402.46 | – | |
| OS | C-index (95% CI) | 0.692 (0.627–0.757) | 0.593 (0.528–0.658) | <0.001 |
| AIC | 604.176 | 627.198 | – | |
Statistics are for 5-year RFS and OS rates. C-index, Harrell concordance index; AIC, Akaike Information Criterion.
Figure 3Recurrence-free survival (A,B) of all patients and post-recurrence survival (C,D) of patients with recurrence between the low- and high-risk groups in the training (A,C), external validation cohort (B) and combined validation cohorts (D).
Figure 4Recurrence patterns among patients determined to be at low vs. high risk using the nomogram. (A) Training cohort and (B) validation cohort. LR, locoregional recurrence; PM, peritoneal metastasis; DM, distant metastasis; MM, multiple metastasis; *p < 0.05.