| Literature DB >> 33183384 |
Joowhan Sung1,2, Naveed Choudry1, Rima Bachour1.
Abstract
As the COVID-19 pandemic continues to escalate and place pressure on hospital system resources, a proper screening and risk stratification score is essential. We aimed to develop a risk score to identify patients with increased risk of COVID-19, allowing proper identification and allocation of limited resources. A retrospective study was conducted of 338 patients who were admitted to the hospital from the emergency room to regular floors and tested for COVID-19 at an acute care hospital in the Metropolitan Washington D.C. area. The dataset was split into development and validation sets with a ratio of 6:4. Demographics, presenting symptoms, sick contact, triage vital signs, initial laboratory and chest X-ray results were analysed to develop a prediction model for COVID-19 diagnosis. Multivariable logistic regression was performed in a stepwise fashion to develop a prediction model, and a scoring system was created based on the coefficients of the final model. Among 338 patients admitted to the hospital from the emergency room, 136 (40.2%) patients tested positive for COVID-19 and 202 (59.8%) patients tested negative. Sick contact with suspected or confirmed COVID-19 case (3 points), nursing facility residence (3 points), constitutional symptom (1 point), respiratory symptom (1 point), gastrointestinal symptom (1 point), obesity (1 point), hypoxia at triage (1 point) and leucocytosis (-1 point) were included in the prediction score. A risk score for COVID-19 diagnosis achieved area under the receiver operating characteristic curve of 0.87 (95% confidence interval (CI) 0.82-0.92) in the development dataset and 0.85 (95% CI 0.78-0.92) in the validation dataset. A risk prediction score for COVID-19 can be used as a supplemental tool to assist clinical decision to triage, test and quarantine patients admitted to the hospital from the emergency room.Entities:
Keywords: COVID-19; SARS-CoV-2; diagnosis; prediction; risk score
Year: 2020 PMID: 33183384 PMCID: PMC7729168 DOI: 10.1017/S0950268820002769
Source DB: PubMed Journal: Epidemiol Infect ISSN: 0950-2688 Impact factor: 2.451
Baseline characteristics of the patients admitted to the hospital in a development and a validation cohort
| Development cohort ( | Validation cohort ( | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Non-COVID ( | COVID ( | Non-COVID ( | COVID ( | Total ( | |||
| Median age (IQR), years | 68.5 (55.5–77.5) | 62 (50–75) | 0.100 | 65 (53–76) | 61 (55–75) | 0.636 | 65 (54–76) |
| Sex, male | 65 (56.0%) | 41 (47.1%) | 0.209 | 49 (57.0%) | 23 (46.9%) | 0.261 | 178 (52.7%) |
| Nursing facility residence | 15 (12.9%) | 19 (21.8%) | 0.093 | 5 (5.8%) | 9 (18.4%) | 0.021 | 48 (14.2%) |
| Race | |||||||
| African American | 97 (83.6%) | 70 (80.5%) | 0.022 | 71 (82.6%) | 42 (85.7%) | 0.071 | 280 (82.8%) |
| Hispanic | 3 (2.6%) | 11 (12.6%) | 1 (1.2%) | 4 (8.2%) | 34 (10.1%) | ||
| Caucasian | 14 (12.1%) | 5 (5.7%) | 12 (14.0%) | 3 (6.1%) | 19 (5.6%) | ||
| Other | 2 (1.7%) | 1 (1.1%) | 2 (2.3%) | 0 (0.0%) | 5 (1.5%) | ||
| Smoking | 39 (33.6%) | 16 (18.4%) | 0.016 | 34 (39.5%) | 14 (28.6%) | 0.201 | 103 (30.5%) |
| Obesity | 36 (31.0%) | 49 (56.3%) | <0.001 | 33 (38.4%) | 27 (55.1%) | 0.060 | 145 (42.9%) |
| Diabetes | 51 (44.0%) | 31 (35.6%) | 0.231 | 27 (31.4%) | 21 (42.9%) | 0.181 | 130 (38.5%) |
| Hypertension | 82 (70.7%) | 53 (60.9%) | 0.144 | 51 (59.3%) | 32 (65.3%) | 0.491 | 218 (64.5%) |
| COPD | 19 (16.4%) | 9 (10.3%) | 0.217 | 11 (12.8%) | 4 (8.2%) | 0.411 | 43 (12.7%) |
| Asthma | 5 (4.3%) | 8 (9.2%) | 0.159 | 2 (2.3%) | 6 (12.2%) | 0.019 | 21 (6.2%) |
| CAD | 10 (8.6%) | 7 (8.0%) | 0.884 | 9 (10.5%) | 7 (14.3%) | 0.509 | 33 (9.8%) |
| CHF | 18 (15.5%) | 11 (12.6%) | 0.563 | 18 (20.9%) | 7 (14.3%) | 0.339 | 54 (16.0%) |
| CKD | 23 (19.8%) | 15 (17.2%) | 0.640 | 21 (24.4%) | 12 (24.5%) | 0.993 | 71 (21.0%) |
| ESRD | 13 (11.2%) | 10 (11.5%) | 0.949 | 8 (9.3%) | 5 (10.2%) | 0.864 | 36 (10.7%) |
| Atrial fibrillation | 11 (9.5%) | 4 (4.6%) | 0.188 | 4 (4.7%) | 7 (14.3%) | 0.049 | 26 (7.7%) |
| History of stroke | 14 (12.1%) | 6 (6.9%) | 0.221 | 8 (9.3%) | 7 (14.3%) | 0.376 | 35 (10.4%) |
aData are presented as median (IQR) for a continuous variable, and n (%) for categorical variables.
Clinical presentation and initial work-up results in the emergency room
| Development cohort ( | Validation cohort ( | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Non-COVID ( | COVID ( | Non-COVID ( | COVID ( | Total ( | |||
| Sick contact | 4 (3.4%) | 25 (28.7%) | <0.001 | 2 (2.3%) | 16 (32.7%) | <0.001 | 47 (13.9%) |
| Triage vital signs | |||||||
| Fever | 12 (10.3%) | 25 (28.7%) | <0.001 | 9 (10.5%) | 11 (22.5%) | 0.059 | 109 (32.3%) |
| Tachycardia | 53 (45.7%) | 47 (54.0%) | 0.240 | 35 (40.7%) | 25 (51.0%) | 0.246 | 160 (47.3%) |
| Tachypnoea | 42 (36.2%) | 38 (43.7%) | 0.281 | 31 (36.1%) | 22 (44.9%) | 0.311 | 133 (39.4%) |
| Hypotension | 16 (13.8%) | 17 (19.5%) | 0.272 | 8 (9.3%) | 5 (10.2%) | 0.864 | 46 (13.6%) |
| Hypoxia | 33 (28.4%) | 55 (63.2%) | <0.001 | 30 (34.9%) | 29 (59.2%) | 0.006 | 147 (43.5%) |
| Presenting symptoms | |||||||
| Respiratory symptoms | 60 (51.7%) | 74 (85.1%) | <0.001 | 49 (57.0%) | 38 (77.6%) | 0.016 | 221 (65.4%) |
| Cough | 31 (26.7%) | 61 (70.1%) | <0.001 | 29 (33.7%) | 32 (65.3%) | <0.001 | 153 (45.3%) |
| Shortness of breath | 54 (46.6%) | 59 (67.8%) | 0.003 | 42 (48.8%) | 34 (69.4%) | 0.021 | 189 (55.9%) |
| Constitutional symptoms | 28 (24.1%) | 55 (63.2%) | <0.001 | 27 (31.4%) | 24 (49.0%) | 0.043 | 134 (39.6%) |
| Fever | 23 (19.8%) | 47 (54.0%) | <0.001 | 15 (17.4%) | 24 (49.0%) | <0.001 | 109 (32.3%) |
| Chills | 10 (8.6%) | 21 (24.1%) | 0.002 | 10 (11.6%) | 9 (18.4%) | 0.279 | 50 (14.8%) |
| Myalgia | 7 (6.0%) | 13 (14.9%) | 0.035 | 11 (12.8%) | 4 (8.2%) | 0.411 | 35 (10.4%) |
| Chest pain | 20 (17.2%) | 15 (17.2%) | 1.000 | 14 (16.3%) | 9 (18.4%) | 0.756 | 58 (17.2%) |
| Gastrointestinal symptom | 17 (14.7%) | 33 (37.9%) | <0.001 | 20 (23.3%) | 21 (42.9%) | 0.017 | 91 (26.9%) |
| Nausea or vomiting | 11 (9.5%) | 21 (24.1%) | 0.005 | 14 (16.3%) | 14 (28.6%) | 0.090 | 60 (17.8%) |
| Diarrhoea | 9 (7.8%) | 22 (25.3%) | <0.001 | 8 (9.3%) | 13 (26.5%) | 0.008 | 52 (15.4%) |
| Initial labs | |||||||
| Leukopenia | 5 (4.3%) | 5 (5.7%) | 0.640 | 7 (8.1%) | 11 (22.5%) | 0.019 | 28 (8.3%) |
| Leucocytosis | 32 (27.6%) | 15 (17.2%) | 0.084 | 20 (23.3%) | 5 (10.2%) | 0.060 | 72 (21.3%) |
| Thrombocytopenia | 18 (15.5%) | 19 (21.8%) | 0.248 | 10 (11.6%) | 11 (22.5%) | 0.095 | 58 (17.2%) |
| Thrombocytosis | 11 (9.5%) | 6 (6.9%) | 0.510 | 11 (12.8%) | 1 (2.0%) | 0.035 | 29 (8.6%) |
| Creatinine | 1.19 (0.88–1.95) | 1.12 (0.81–1.82) | 0.731 | 1.18 (0.82–2.52) | 1.33 (1.01–1.87) | 0.819 | 1.2 (0.86–1.95) |
| Initial chest X-ray | |||||||
| Clear lung field | 43 (40.6%) | 15 (17.9%) | <0.001 | 30 (38.0%) | 13 (28.3%) | 0.270 | 101 (32.1%) |
| Possible multifocal infiltrate | 33 (31.1%) | 43 (51.2%) | 0.005 | 31 (39.2%) | 25 (54.4%) | 0.101 | 132 (41.9%) |
Results of univariable analysis and multivariable analysis
| Univariable analysis | Multivariable analysis | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Crude OR | 95% CI | Adjusted OR | 95% CI | |||
| Demographics | ||||||
| Age (year) | 0.99 | 0.97–1.00 | 0.102 | |||
| Male sex | 0.70 | 0.40–1.22 | 0.209 | |||
| Nursing facility residence | 1.88 | 0.89–3.96 | 0.096 | 9.63 | 3.02–30.67 | <0.001 |
| Diabetes | 0.71 | 0.40–1.25 | 0.232 | |||
| Hypertension | 0.65 | 0.36–1.16 | 0.145 | |||
| Chronic kidney disease | 0.84 | 0.41–1.73 | 0.640 | |||
| Obesity | 2.87 | 1.61–5.11 | <0.001 | 2.93 | 1.32–6.51 | 0.008 |
| Smoking | 0.44 | 0.23–0.87 | 0.017 | |||
| Triage vital signs | ||||||
| Fever | 3.49 | 1.64–7.45 | 0.001 | |||
| Tachycardia | 1.40 | 0.80–2.44 | 0.240 | |||
| Hypotension | 1.52 | 0.72–3.21 | 0.274 | |||
| Tachypnoea | 1.37 | 0.77–2.41 | 0.282 | |||
| Hypoxia | 4.32 | 2.39–7.83 | <0.001 | 3.52 | 1.58–7.83 | 0.002 |
| Sick contact | 11.29 | 3.76–33.92 | <0.001 | 10.47 | 2.67–41.04 | 0.001 |
| Presenting symptoms | ||||||
| Constitutional symptom | 5.4 | 2.94–9.93 | <0.001 | 2.31 | 1.05–5.10 | 0.038 |
| Respiratory symptom | 5.31 | 2.66–10.62 | <0.001 | 4.36 | 1.73–10.98 | 0.002 |
| Gastrointestinal symptom | 3.56 | 1.82–6.97 | <0.001 | 4.11 | 1.59–10.64 | 0.004 |
| Initial labs | ||||||
| Leukopenia | 1.35 | 0.38–4.83 | 0.641 | |||
| Leucocytosis | 0.55 | 0.27–1.09 | 0.086 | 0.33 | 0.12–0.90 | 0.030 |
| Thrombocytopenia | 1.52 | 0.74–3.11 | 0.250 | |||
| Thrombocytosis | 0.71 | 0.25–1.99 | 0.512 | |||
| Initial chest X-ray | ||||||
| Clear lung field | 0.32 | 0.16–0.63 | 0.001 | |||
| Possible multifocal infiltrate | 2.32 | 1.28–4.20 | 0.005 | |||
COVID-19 risk scores and corresponding AUROCs
| Model 1 | Model 2 | Model 3 | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sick contact with suspected or confirmed COVID-19 case | +10 points | +2 points | +3 points | |
| Nursing Facility Residence | +10 points | +2 points | +3 points | |
| Obesity | +3 points | +1 point | +1 point | |
| Constitutional symptom (fever, chills, or myalgia) | +2 points | +1 point | +1 point | |
| Respiratory symptom (cough or shortness of breath) | +4 points | +1 point | +1 point | |
| Gastrointestinal symptom (nausea, vomiting, or diarrhoea) | +4 points | +1 point | +1 point | |
| Hypoxia on triage | +4 points | +1 point | +1 point | |
| Leucocytosis | −3 points | −1 point | −1 point | |
| Total points | 37 points | 9 points | 11 points | |
| AUROC (95% CI) | Development cohort | 0.87 (0.83–0.92) | 0.87 (0.83–0.92) | 0.87 (0.82–0.92) |
| Validation cohort | 0.85 (0.78–0.92) | 0.83 (0.76–0.90) | 0.85 (0.78–0.92) | |
Fig. 1.Receiver operating characteristic curves of the COVID-19 risk score (model 3) among patients admitted to the hospital from the emergency room in a development cohort (left) and a validation cohort (right).
Sensitivities, specificities, positive predictive values (PPVs) and negative predictive value (NPVs) of the final risk score system for each prediction score cut-off
| Development cohort | Validation cohort | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Prediction score | Sensitivity (%) | Specificity (%) | PPV (%) | NPV (%) | Sensitivity (%) | Specificity (%) | PPV (%) | NPV (%) |
| ⩾0 | 100.0 | 5.2 | 44.2 | 100.0 | 100.0 | 3.5 | 37.1 | 100.0 |
| ⩾1 | 98.9 | 20.7 | 48.3 | 96.0 | 98.0 | 16.3 | 40.0 | 93.3 |
| ⩾2 | 97.7 | 47.4 | 58.2 | 96.5 | 93.9 | 37.2 | 46.0 | 91.4 |
| ⩾3 | 85.1 | 75.0 | 71.8 | 87.0 | 79.6 | 70.9 | 60.9 | 85.9 |
| ⩾4 | 64.4 | 88.8 | 81.2 | 76.9 | 69.4 | 91.9 | 82.9 | 84.0 |
| ⩾5 | 46.0 | 93.1 | 83.3 | 69.7 | 44.9 | 96.5 | 88.0 | 75.5 |
| ⩾6 | 27.6 | 98.3 | 92.3 | 64.4 | 28.6 | 97.7 | 87.5 | 70.6 |
| ⩾7 | 14.9 | 100.0 | 100.0 | 61.1 | 12.2 | 4.4 | 100.0 | 66.7 |