Projecting the Temporal Evolution of Methane Emissions from Oil and Gas Production Sites.

Many recent studies have reported methane emissions from oil and gas production regions, often reporting results as a methane emission intensity (methane emitted as a percentage of natural gas produced or methane produced). Almost all of these studies have been instantaneous snapshots of methane emissions; however, total methane emissions from a production site and the methane emission intensity would be expected to evolve over time. A detailed site-level methane emission estimation model is used to estimate the temporal evolution of methane emissions and the methane emission intensity for a variety of well configurations with and without emission mitigation measures in place. The general pattern predicted is that total emissions decrease over time as production declines. Methane emission intensity shows complex behavior because production-dependent emissions decline at different rates and some emissions do not decline over time. Prototypical uncontrolled wet gas wells can have approximately half of their emissions over a 10 year period occur in the first year; instantaneous wellsite methane emission intensities range over a factor of 3 (0.62-2.00%) in the same period, with a 10 year production weighted-average lifecycle methane emission intensity of 0.79%. Including emission control in the form of a flare can decrease the average lifecycle methane emission intensity to 0.23%. Emissions from liquid unloadings, which are observed in subsets of wells, can increase the lifecycle methane emission intensity by up to a factor of 2-3, between 1.2 and 2.3%, depending on the characteristics of the unloadings. Emissions from well completion flowbacks raise the average lifecycle methane emission intensity from 0.79 to 0.81% for flowbacks with emission controls; for flowbacks with uncontrolled emissions, lifecycle methane emissions increase to 1.26%. Dry gas and oil wells show qualitatively similar temporal behavior but different absolute emission rates.