Bram Vrancken1, Sanjay R Mehta2, Santiago Ávila-Ríos3, Claudia García-Morales3, Daniela Tapia-Trejo3, Gustavo Reyes-Terán4, Samuel Navarro-Álvarez5, Susan J Little2, Martin Hoenigl2, Heather A Pines2, Thomas Patterson2, Steffanie A Strathdee2, Davey M Smith2, Simon Dellicour1,6, Antoine Chaillon2. 1. Department of Microbiology, Immunology and Transplantation, Rega Institute, Laboratory for Computational and Evolutionary Virology, KU Leuven, Herestraat, Leuven, Belgium. 2. Division of Infectious Diseases and Global Public Health, University of California San Diego, CA. 3. Centre for Research in Infectious Diseases, National Institute of Respiratory Diseases, Calzada de Tlalpan, Colonia Sección XVI, CP, Mexico City, Mexico. 4. Coordinating Commission of the Mexican National Institutes of Health, Periférico Sur, Arenal Tepepan, Mexico City, Mexico. 5. Hospital General de Tijuana, Av. Centenario, Zona Río, CP, Tijuana, BC, Mexico. 6. Spatial Epidemiology Lab (SpELL), Université Libre de Bruxelles, av. FD Roosevelt, Bruxelles, Belgium.
Abstract
BACKGROUND: Evolutionary analyses of well-annotated HIV sequence data can provide insights into viral transmission patterns and associated factors. Here, we explored the transmission dynamics of the HIV-1 subtype B epidemic across the San Diego (US) - Tijuana (Mexico) border region to identify factors that could help guide public health policy. METHODS: HIV pol sequences were collected from people with HIV in San Diego County and from Tijuana between 1996-2018. A multistep phylogenetic approach was used to characterize the dynamics of spread. The contribution of geospatial factors and HIV risk group to the local dynamics were evaluated. RESULTS: Phylogeographic analyses of the 2,034 sequences revealed an important contribution of local transmission in sustaining the epidemic, as well as a complex viral migration network across the region. Geospatial viral dispersal between San Diego communities occurred predominantly among men-who-have-sex with-men with central San Diego being the main source (34.9%) and recipient (39.5%) of migration events. HIV migration was more frequent from San Diego county towards Tijuana than vice versa. Migrations were best explained by driving time between locations. CONCLUSION: The US-Mexico border may not be a major barrier to the spread of HIV, which may stimulate coordinated transnational intervention approaches. Whereas a focus on central San Diego has the potential to avert most spread, the substantial viral migration independent of central San Diego shows that county-wide efforts will be more effective. Combined, this work shows that epidemiological information gleaned from pathogen genomes can uncover mechanisms that underlie sustained spread and, in turn, can be a building block of public health decision making.
BACKGROUND: Evolutionary analyses of well-annotated HIV sequence data can provide insights into viral transmission patterns and associated factors. Here, we explored the transmission dynamics of the HIV-1 subtype B epidemic across the San Diego (US) - Tijuana (Mexico) border region to identify factors that could help guide public health policy. METHODS: HIV pol sequences were collected from people with HIV in San Diego County and from Tijuana between 1996-2018. A multistep phylogenetic approach was used to characterize the dynamics of spread. The contribution of geospatial factors and HIV risk group to the local dynamics were evaluated. RESULTS: Phylogeographic analyses of the 2,034 sequences revealed an important contribution of local transmission in sustaining the epidemic, as well as a complex viral migration network across the region. Geospatial viral dispersal between San Diego communities occurred predominantly among men-who-have-sex with-men with central San Diego being the main source (34.9%) and recipient (39.5%) of migration events. HIV migration was more frequent from San Diego county towards Tijuana than vice versa. Migrations were best explained by driving time between locations. CONCLUSION: The US-Mexico border may not be a major barrier to the spread of HIV, which may stimulate coordinated transnational intervention approaches. Whereas a focus on central San Diego has the potential to avert most spread, the substantial viral migration independent of central San Diego shows that county-wide efforts will be more effective. Combined, this work shows that epidemiological information gleaned from pathogen genomes can uncover mechanisms that underlie sustained spread and, in turn, can be a building block of public health decision making.
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