| Literature DB >> 33047873 |
Qifei He1, Jinyi Zhu2, Anqiang Wang1, Ke Ji1, Xin Ji1, Ji Zhang1, Xiaojiang Wu1, Xia Li3, Zhaode Bu1, Jiafu Ji1.
Abstract
BACKGROUND: Positive peritoneal cytology (PCY) indicates metastasis (M1) in gastric cancer (GC) patients; both the American and Chinese guidelines recommend laparoscopic peritoneal lavage (LPL) for cytology. However, relatively high costs impair the widespread use of LPL in some resource-limited regions in China, and the cost-effectiveness of PCY testing remains unclear. Therefore, we performed a decision analysis to evaluate the cost-effectiveness of PCY testing by comparing the guideline-recommended intraoperative LPL, a newly proposed preoperative percutaneous peritoneal lavage (PPL), and a third strategy of exploratory laparotomy with no cytology testing (ELNC) among GC patients.Entities:
Keywords: cost-effectiveness; cytology; decision analysis; gastric cancer
Year: 2020 PMID: 33047873 PMCID: PMC7724308 DOI: 10.1002/cam4.3518
Source DB: PubMed Journal: Cancer Med ISSN: 2045-7634 Impact factor: 4.452
FIGURE 1Markov‐Decision analysis model layout. A decision tree containing Markov models shows three strategies for individuals with gastric cancer who are assumed as radiographically occult metastases disease with curative intent. Panel A. illustrates the three strategies to detect peritoneal cytology: LPL, PPL, and ELNC. Panel B shows the Markov model comprises three health states of disease/ progression‐free survival, progressive disease, and death. Abbreviations: ELCY, exploratory laparotomy with cytology; ELNC, exploratory laparotomy with no cytology; LPL, laparoscopic peritoneal lavage; PPL, percutaneous peritoneal lavage
Key model variables
| Parameter | Base‐case value | Sensitivity analysis range | Distribution | Source(s) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Probability | ||||
| Pretest probability of OPM | 23.4% | 8.5‐59.6% | Beta | Mezhir & Leake |
| Sensitivity of PPL for cytology metastases | 75.9% | 65.1‐84.2% | Beta | Makino, Pak & James |
| Sensitivity of LPL for OPM | 84.6% | 74.7‐91.8% | Beta | Ramos |
| Specificity of testing for OPM | 100% | Beta | Makino, Pak, James & Ramos | |
| Probability of CY1P0 | 6.4% | 4.5‐8.7% | Beta | Mezhir, Bando, Lee & Kuramoto |
| Probability of PPL complication | 0.8% | 0.4‐1.2% | Beta | James |
| Probability of LPL complication | 2.2% | 0‐5% | Beta | Muntean |
| Probability of EL complication | 6% | 3‐9% | Beta | Smith |
| Probability of gastrectomy complication | 21.6% | 19.4‐23.9% | Beta | Wu, Papenfuss & Martin |
| Perioperative mortality of LPL | 0.07% | 0‐0.13% | Beta | Muntean, Adamek |
| Perioperative mortality of EL | 1.5% | 0‐3% | Beta | Burke, Smith |
| Perioperative mortality of gastrectomy† | 2.7% | 0.3‐7.5% | Beta | Wu, Papenfuss & Martin |
|
| ||||
| PPL | 246 | 123‐369. | Gamma | Calculated |
| LPL | 2213 | 1107.5‐3319.5 | Gamma | Calculated |
| EL | 2065 | 1032.5‐3097.5 | Gamma | Calculated |
| Surgery Annual direct medical cost | 9,617 | 3521‐16289 | Gamma | Yang |
| Annual indirect cost | 664 | 353‐1217 | Gamma | |
| Annual direct nonmedical cost | 320 | 195‐541 | Gamma | |
| Adjuvant chemotherapy per cycle | 2635 | 2208‐3063 | Gamma | He |
| Chemotherapy Annual direct medical cost | 3,697 | 1802‐7411 | Gamma | Yang |
| Annual indirect cost | 1189 | 1008‐1906 | Gamma | |
| Annual direct nonmedical cost | 370 | 359‐411 | Gamma | |
| Palliative therapy Annual direct medical cost | 3109 | 1348‐9636 | Gamma | Yang |
| Annual indirect cost | 855 | 785‐868 | Gamma | |
| Annual direct nonmedical cost | 367 | 349‐371 | Gamma | |
| Folds of complication cost versus surgery cost | 3 | 1.5‐4.5 | Normal | Luke |
|
| ||||
| Adjuvant chemotherapy after surgery (<6 m) | 0.68 | 0.56‐0.76 | Beta | Tan |
| Postgastrectomy state with the accomplishment of adjuvant chemotherapy (>6 m) | 0.81 | 0.65‐0.97 | Beta | Tan |
| Metastasis GC with palliative surgery plus chemotherapy | 0.54 | 0.52‐0.56 | Beta | Li |
| Metastasis GC with chemotherapy | 0.66 | 0.58‐0.73 | Beta | Li |
| Recurrent or progressive state with palliative therapy | 0.40 | 0.10‐0.69 | Beta | Lee |
|
| ||||
| Discounted rate | 3% | — | Liu | |
Abbreviations: CY1P0, positive cytology without visible peritoneal implants; EL, exploratory laparotomy; GC, gastric cancer; LPL, laparoscopic peritoneal lavage; OPM, occult peritoneal metastases; PPL, percutaneous peritoneal lavage.
Derived from the random‐effect meta‐analysis.
Range estimated as 50‐150% of base case value.
Not assessed in the sensitivity analysis.
Information on clinical trials and survival model parameters
| Markov status transition | Clinical Trial | Optimal model | Parameter value |
|---|---|---|---|
| DFS to PD of curative surgery strategy for true negative PCY result | DFS of gastrectomy with adjuvant chemotherapy arm of CLASSIC trial | Weibull |
|
| PFS to PD of palliative surgery strategy for false‐negative PCY result | PFS of chemotherapy plus palliative gastrectomy arm of REGATTA trial | log‐logistic |
|
| PFS to PD of chemotherapy strategy for true positive PCY result | PFS of chemotherapy arm of REGATTA trial | log‐logistic |
|
| PD to death | OS of docetaxel arm of COUGAR−02 study | Weibull |
|
Abbreviations: DFS, disease‐free survival; PCY, peritoneal cytology; PFS, progression‐free survival; PD, progressive disease; OS, overall survival.
The selection process of the optimal distribution is seen in the Supporting Information file.
The survival function of Weibull and log‐logistic distribution is exp(−λt) and 1/(1 + at), respectively.
Base case cost‐effectiveness results
| Undiscounted | Discounted | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cost (US$) | Effectiveness (QALYs) | ICER ($/QALY) | Cost (US$) | Effectiveness (QALYs) | ICER ($/QALY) | |
| ELNC | 24,097 | 8.03 | Dominated | 23,738 | 5.81 | Dominated |
| LPL | 24,100 | 8.15 | 12,038 | 23,736 | 5.90 | 17,200 |
| PPL | 22,901 | 8.06 | Reference | 22,515 | 5.83 | Reference |
Abbreviations: ELNC, exploratory laparotomy with no cytology; ICER, incremental cost‐effectiveness ratio; LPL, laparoscopic peritoneal lavage; PPL, percutaneous peritoneal lavage; QALY, quality‐adjusted life years.
Discounted at 3%.
FIGURE 3Cost‐effectiveness acceptability curve. The curves illustrate the probability of being cost‐effective for each PCY strategy. The probability that LPL was cost‐effective increased as the WTP threshold went up, while the probability of PPL declined. ELNC had nearly zero probability of being cost‐effective across the WTP threshold spectrum. The probability of cost‐effectiveness was 66.8% for LPL at the prespecified WTP threshold of US$29,313/QALY. The threshold where LPL and PPL have an equal probability of being cost‐effective was US$16,425/QALY. Abbreviations: ELNC, exploratory laparotomy with no cytology; LPL, laparoscopic peritoneal lavage; PPL, percutaneous peritoneal lavage; QALY, quality‐adjusted life years; WTP, willing‐to‐pay
FIGURE 2One‐way sensitivity analysis results (ICERs for LPL vs. PPL). Tornado diagram summarizes one‐way sensitivity analyses for the LPL strategy compared with the PPL strategy for the base‐case analysis. Most ICERs were close to the base‐case result (US$17,200 per QALY) as model parameters were varied through plausible ranges, with the exceptions of the perioperative mortality of ELNC and the pretest probability of occult peritoneal metastases. Parameters are shown in descending order of influence on model results. The blue portion and the red portion of the bar, respectively, represent the ICER range when the parameter value is lower and higher than the base‐case result. ICER, incremental cost‐effectiveness ratios; QALY, quality‐adjusted life years; LPL, intraoperative laparoscopic peritoneal lavage; PPL, preoperative percutaneous peritoneal lavage; EL, exploratory laparotomy