| Literature DB >> 33040478 |
Jun-Lin Lu1, Qi-Dong Xia1, Ying-Hong Lu2, Zheng Liu1, Peng Zhou1, Heng-Long Hu1, Shao-Gang Wang1.
Abstract
Intravesical instillation therapy is the mainstay of prophylaxis of tumor recurrence and progression in non-muscle-invasive bladder cancer. However, there is no study evaluating the superiority of monotherapy. The aim of this study is to compare the efficacy of preventing recurrence and progression of intravesical monotherapies via network meta-analysis (NMA) of randomized controlled trials. Database searches were conducted on Embase, Ovid Medline, Web of Science, ScienceDirect, Cochrane Library, and ClinicalTrials.com from the time of establishment to February 6, 2020. The monotherapies included Bacille Calmette-Guérin (BCG), mitomycin C (MMC), interferon (IFN), adriamycin, epirubicin, gemcitabine (GEM), and thiotepa (THP). A Bayesian consistency network model was generated under a random-effects model. The superiority of therapy was identified based on the surface under the cumulative ranking curve (SUCRA). Fifty-seven studies with 12462 patients are included. NMA shows that GEM (SUCRA = 0.92), BCG (SUCRA = 0.82), and IFN (SUCRA = 0.78) are the top three effective drugs to reduce recurrence. GEM (SUCRA = 0.87) is the most effective therapy to prevent progress, followed by BCG, MMC, THP, and IFN with similar efficacy. Subgroup analysis of pairwise meta-analysis and NMA was performed on publication year, trial initiation year, study origin, center involvement, sample size, drug schedule, tumor characteristics, and trial quality to address confounding factors, which suggests the robustness of the results with stable effect sizes. Network meta-regression also indicates consistent rank by analyzing year, sample size, and quality. Compared with BCG, GEM is also a promising therapy with favorable efficacy to reduce tumor recurrence and progression. IFN and MMC could be alternative therapies for BCG with slightly inferior efficacy in recurrence prevention and similar efficacy in progression prevention. However, the results of this study should be treated with caution since most of the included studies are of moderate to high risk of bias.Entities:
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Year: 2020 PMID: 33040478 PMCID: PMC7643689 DOI: 10.1002/cam4.3513
Source DB: PubMed Journal: Cancer Med ISSN: 2045-7634 Impact factor: 4.452
FIGURE 1Flowchart of study selection
FIGURE 2Network diagrams of direct comparisons on recurrence (A) and progression (B)
FIGURE 3Forest plot of pairwise meta‐analysis. Red point of effect size indicates that the difference of the comparison is significant
Efficacy estimates table from network meta‐analysis with 95% credible intervals
|
| 2.69 [1.80 to 3.97] | 1.86 [1.21 to 2.83] | 3.42 [1.84 to 6.69] | 2.46 [1.23 to 5.00] | 2.61 [1.80 to 3.86] | 2.59 [0.77 to 9.30] | 0.94 [0.66 to 1.35] |
| 1.65 [1.28 to 2.12] |
| 0.69 [0.50 to 0.93] | 1.28 [0.76 to 2.16] | 0.90 [0.49 to 1.73] | 0.98 [0.76 to 1.26] | 0.96 [0.29 to 3.53] | 0.35 [0.26 to 0.48] |
| 1.05 [0.78 to 1.43] | 0.64 [0.48 to 0.84] |
| 1.86 [1.02 to 3.35] | 1.31 [0.67 to 2.72] | 1.42 [0.99 to 2.08] | 1.39 [0.41 to 5.26] | 0.51 [0.35 to 0.74] |
| 1.97 [1.14 to 3.42] | 1.21 [0.73 to 1.97] | 1.88 [1.06 to 3.32] |
| 0.71 [0.26 to 1.63] | 0.76 [0.47 to 1.28] | 0.74 [0.20 to 2.97] | 0.27 [0.15 to 0.50] |
| 1.58 [1.09 to 2.32] | 0.96 [0.67 to 1.39] | 1.51 [0.99 to 2.29] | 0.79 [0.44 to 1.48] |
| 1.08 [0.55 to 2.03] | 1.05 [0.26 to 4.39] | 0.39 [0.20 to 0.70] |
| 1.27 [1.01 to 1.62] | 0.78 [0.63 to 0.95] | 1.21 [0.90 to 1.65] | 0.64 [0.38 to 1.08] | 0.81 [0.57 to 1.14] |
| 0.98 [0.29 to 3.60] | 0.36 [0.25 to 0.51] |
| 1.01 [0.61 to 1.70] | 0.62 [0.36 to 0.95] | 0.96 [0.55 to 1.70] | 0.51 [0.25 to 1.05] | 0.64 [0.35 to 1.15] | 0.79 [0.47 to 1.35] |
| 0.36 [0.10 to 1.26] |
| 0.70 [0.57 to 0.85] | 0.43 [0.34 to 0.54] | 0.66 [0.50 to 0.89] | 0.35 [0.21 to 0.61] | 0.44 [0.31 to 0.63] | 0.55 [0.44 to 0.68] | 0.69 [0.41 to 1.14] |
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Effect sizes below the diagonal refer to recurrence outcome and effect sizes above the diagonal refer to progression outcome. Effect sizes greater than 0 favor the therapy on the left or above and effect sizes less than 0 favor the therapy on the right or below.
FIGURE 4SUCRA plot for ranking for recurrence and progression prevention
Summary of confidence in estimated effect sizes and therapy ranking
| Comparison | Recurrence | Progression | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Evidence type | Confidence | Downgrading reasons | Evidence type | Confidence | Downgrading reasons | |
| BCG versus MMC | Mixed | Very low | Sl; Id; Ic | Mixed | Low | Sl; Ip |
| BCG versus IFN | Mixed | Low | Sl; Ip | Mixed | Low | Sl; Ip |
| BCG versus ADM | Mixed | Low | Sl; Ic | Mixed | Moderate | Sl |
| BCG versus EPI | Mixed | Low | Sl; Ic | Mixed | Moderate | Sl; |
| BCG versus GEM | Mixed | Low | Sl; Ic | Mixed | Low | Sl; Ip |
| BCG versus THP | Mixed | Moderate | Sl; | Mixed | Low | Sl; Ip |
| BCG versus TURBT | Mixed | Moderate | Sl; | Mixed | Moderate | Sl; |
| MMC versus IFN | Mixed | Very low | Sl; Ic; Ip | Mixed | Low | Sl; Ip |
| MMC versus ADM | Mixed | Low | Sl; Id | Mixed | Moderate | Sl; |
| MMC versus EPI | Mixed | Low | Sl; Ip | Mixed | Low | Sl; Ip |
| MMC versus GEM | Mixed | Low | Sl; Ip | Mixed | Low | Sl; Ip |
| MMC versus THP | Mixed | Low | Sl; Ip | Mixed | Low | Sl; Ip |
| MMC versus TURBT | Mixed | Moderate | Sl | Mixed | Low | Sl; Ic |
| IFN versus ADM | Indirect | Low | Sl; Id | Indirect | Low | Sl; Id |
| IFN versus EPI | Indirect | Very low | Sl; Id; Ip | Indirect | Very low | Sl; Id; Ip |
| IFN versus GEM | Indirect | Very low | Sl; Id; Ip | Indirect | Very low | Sl; Id; Ip |
| IFN versus THP | Indirect | Very low | Sl; Id; Ip | Indirect | Very low | Sl; Id; Ip |
| IFN versus TURBT | Mixed | Moderate | Sl; | Mixed | Moderate | Sl; |
| ADM versus EPI | Mixed | Low | Sl; Ip | Mixed | Moderate | Sl; |
| ADM versus GEM | Indirect | Low | Sl; Id; | Indirect | Low | Sl; Id; |
| ADM versus THP | Mixed | Low | Sl; Ip | Mixed | Low | Sl; Ip |
| ADM versus TURBT | Mixed | Very low | Sl; Ic; Pb | Mixed | Low | Sl; Ip |
| EPI versus GEM | Indirect | Low | Sl; Id; | Indirect | Moderate | Sl |
| EPI versus THP | Indirect | Very low | Sl; Id; Ip | Indirect | Low | Sl; Ip |
| EPI versus TURBT | Mixed | Low | Sl; Ic; | Indirect | Low | Sl; Id |
| GEM versus THP | Indirect | Very low | Sl; Id; Ip | Indirect | Very low | Sl; Id; Ip |
| GEM versus TURBT | Indirect | Low | Sl; Id; | Indirect | Low | Sl; Id |
| THP versus TURBT | Mixed | Very low | Sl; Ic; Ip | Indirect | Low | Sl; Ip |
| Therapy ranking | Low | Sl; Ic | Very low | Sl; Id; Ip | ||
Abbreviations: Ic, inconsistency; Id, indirectness; Ip, imprecision; Pb, publication bias; Sl, study limitations.